TA - dollar collapse?

pmbug · May 1, 2013

I've been pointing out for several months now that the recent rally in the dollar was a mirage, an illusion generated by the yen, euro, pound, and Canadian dollar all dropping into yearly, or intermediate cycle lows together. This selling pressure in the four major currencies that make up the dollar index spawned what looked like a strong dollar.

With Bernanke printing 85 billion of them a month, there is no such thing as a "strong dollar". I've been saying for months that once these four currencies completed their bottoming cluster it would be the dollar's turn to crash. The recent collapse in the yen was 23%. The Pound 9%. I think the dollar will be somewhere in between with a loss of 9-12% as it drops down into its yearly cycle low.

As this process starts to accelerate over the next couple of months the dollar bulls are going to get a rude awakening, as our currency shows its true colors. The acceleration began today as the dollar has now completed a lower low and a lower high.

Once major support is breached at 78.50 there will be nothing to stop, what I think will be a waterfall decline, until the dollar reaches the 73-75 zone.
...

More: http://goldscents.blogspot.com/2013/04/dollar-collapse-has-begun.html

Oh, I think there will be some pretty powerful forces working to prevent catastrophic moves. Central banks are dancing a Tango right now.

ancona · May 1, 2013

It's a sovereign circle jerk. Each country is yanking as fast as they can, hoping to gain competitive advantage for just a few months to slow down the heat they are getting from their citizens over what is actually rather tame inflation. When the party really gets going late this year, inflation is going to become the center stage subject.

rblong2us · May 1, 2013

the 'race to the bottom' has been going on ever since the link to gold was severed.

As long as they all broadly move together, then no one really gets there first and it only really shows up as inflation.

The risk must be that someone gets out of line and increases the rate of printing dramatically but then all the others have to do is join in.

As long as they can keep that other 'traditional' currency in its rightful place, it will not be able to indicate what it screams out to tell us.

So a real disconnect between paper and physical prices is a huge challenge for them $.02

smokey57 · May 1, 2013

The collapse has been going on for a 100 years now. 1913.
It's just accelerated. Like rblong2us mentioned 1970s was a good time for central control
Is the last action item in collapse to loot? I think that is going in on now

pmbug · May 2, 2013

rblong2us said:
...
The risk must be that someone gets out of line and increases the rate of printing dramatically ...

You mean like Japan announcing that they are going to double their monetary base inside of 2 years?

rblong2us · May 2, 2013

PMBug said:
You mean like Japan announcing that they are going to double their monetary base inside of 2 years

Yes but I saw this as Japan trying to catch up, rather than getting ahead, as the Yen was holding up quite well and printing was fairly subdued compared to the uk, yerpeen and murkan CB's.

TA - dollar collapse?

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