Not predicting, but I'm out for now, have been for awhile, and missed a nice ride last year in large part.
Just have that feeling in my gut - like just before the 2001 crash, somthin ain't right.
But timing is everything, and TPTB have a huge stake and do a lot of work to keep the house of cards propped up as long as possible, so I'm not short either - just out.
History shows that humans muddle through somehow. Every piece of gold not in private hands may be rehypothecated a zillion times, and the derivatives network be a huge time-bomb that takes "the system as we know it" down when they stop pretending. It is, after all, well over 10x the world GDP worth of "bad paper" insofar as I can find out. But people find ways when it's time to eat, to shelter from the weather and so on, else we'd not be here talking about it - we're a pretty resilient species, so far. This is of course, the cannon of the perma-bull. I don't buy that as much as they do, since unlike theory, I have a limited lifespan left, and I can't wait an extra ten years for a recovery from some random reset. That there will be one, and with significant pain for some, I have no doubt.
I just have no idea of the timing thereof. It's already gone on longer than I thought possible.
And what if you're right about the time, and short - who is to say you're going to be able to collect your winnings from a brokerage that was long in their private account (and maybe with your funds too, like Corzine got caught doing)?
Of course, history also tells us that when everyone thinks that, that's right before the big one. The first seller who finds no buyers precipitates a crash in what looked good right up till that instant.
I think the indicator of "it's really pretty alright now" is going to be when some large bank actually has a good enough balance sheet to ask for the FASB ruling about "mark to unicorn" to be taken down, because it would make them look good and everyone else bad. What I hear is crickets, however, on that one, and it's the real deal.
"Oh, piebald, you had nothing to say, and yet you made it into words and said it anyway!"
CS Lewis, Perelandra