mmerlinn
Ground Beetle
The above quote found in this thread has prompted me to toot my own horn.
Based on that quote, maybe I should be more aggressive in pointing out my fulfilled predictions.
I believe history repeats itself over and over and over again in a predictable manner. Being a numbers man, I am always looking for events that line up by the numbers in a predictable way. And I am often spouting ideas based on those assumptions, many of which are often wrong.
However, twice in a row I have accurately predicted both the timing, to the exact day, and the severity of the downdraft of the stock market, to almost the exact percentage, YEARS in advance. I predicted both the 1997 and the 2008 market crashes almost exactly, both to the day and to the depth.
In 1997 I made my first predictions about 8 months before the fact and on the predicted day I was at a brokerage at 5 in the morning (Monday, 27 October 1997) to watch the market reach the low almost exactly at my numbers, some 40% below the high 56 days earlier. At the end of the day, I took a screenshot which I printed out. I still have that hard proof.
In April 2005, I predicted a low on Friday, the 24th of October (in 2008, not in 2005), that would be 40% below the high 56 days earlier. In July 2008, fully 3 months before the markets crashed, I posted those predictions on the internet on a site that no longer exists. However, on the 16th of October, someone on another site found those predictions and presented them to the readers on that site. Anyone that is interested can view that very popular (13,090 views) thread here. The interesting part is that I made sure that I was in Austin, Texas on the 24th of October, 2008, the exact city I was in when the market crashed on Monday, October 19, 1987, 21 years earlier.
Note that much of what I predicated was incorrect, but that the underlying premise, that the market would bottom out on the 24th of October at about 900 basis the S&P was spot on. Could I do it again? Absolutely if and only if things ever line up the same way again. As of right now, I see nothing that prompts me to believe that the markets will crash on any specific day in the future, so, for now, if I make any predictions, they are generalized and not pinpointed predictions.
I full well believe that there will be a market crash next year for multitudinous reasons, some of which I have spelled out in other threads here. But I have done NO research that would indicate any specific date or dates. Therefore I won't make specific predictions, just generalized ones, which, of course, could mean more mud on my face.
When do I think we MIGHT have another crash like 1929 or 2008? Dates that come to mind are Friday, 28 October 2016, and Friday, 26 October 2018. I strongly suspect that one of those two dates will see a market low 40% under the high around the previous Labor Day. However, I do not have enough information to stick my neck out and say it will happen on either of those days, although I tend to lean towards 2018.
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