Tracking Trump's Tariffs and Turbulent Trade Talks

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What Are Trump’s Options If His Tariffs Are Ruled Unlawful?​

(Bloomberg) -- In rolling out the most aggressive tariff regime in the US in nearly a century, President Donald Trump has leaned heavily on emergency powers that had never been used before to impose import taxes.

Two federal courts ruled in May that he wrongfully invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to justify sweeping “reciprocal” duties targeting America’s trading partners, as well as separate levies aimed at China, Canada and Mexico. The Trump administration appealed both decisions.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...e-ruled-unlawful/ar-AA1LD8Uw?ocid=socialshare
 
US Trading Partners ‘Dazed and Confused’ After Tariff Court Loss: A federal appeals court ruled that President Trump’s global tariffs were issued illegally under an emergency law, upholding a May ruling by the Court of International Trade. The ruling applies to Trump’s “Liberation Day” global tariffs and affects the extra levies on Mexico, China, and Canada, with a final ruling against the tariffs potentially upending Trump’s trade deals. gift article (Bloomberg)
 
searcher said:
Went shopping this morning. Hit 2 places and looked at the price increases on certain things. One was coffee. Up big time due to T tariffs.
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'Trump's promise that foreign companies would pay. . .turned out to be false': Economist on tariffs​


Aug 31, 2025 #CNN #News
President Donald Trump is making sure to share – repeatedly – a recent government analysis that shows his sweeping array of tariffs is expected to reduce the federal debt by $4 trillion over the next decade, more than forecast only a few months ago.
However, how much revenue the US actually realizes depends on several important factors, including whether the current levies remain in place into 2035 and how the nation reacts to the higher tariffs. The tariffs are expected to increase inflation and potentially weaken the economy, which could in turn reduce federal revenue. (The CBO’s analysis did not take the economic impact into account.)
CNN's Jake Tapper speaks with University of Michigan professor of economics and public policy Justin Wolfers and Jeremy Lande, CEO of Fontana Forni USA, which imports pizza ovens from Italy to the US.


8:20

www.bls.gov

Import/Export Price Indexes

www.bls.gov www.bls.gov
 
searcher said:
Went shopping this morning. Hit 2 places and looked at the price increases on certain things. One was coffee. Up big time due to T tariffs.
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I look for coffee on sale, none lately...glad I stock up
 
searcher said:
Went shopping this morning. Hit 2 places and looked at the price increases on certain things. One was coffee. Up big time due to T tariffs.
Click to expand...
I roast my own and only buy whole beans once a year. Unfortunately now is when I need to buy for the next year and prices are up substantially.

So if tariffs are not allowed do we get our money back and does trump have to pay back everything collected?
 
Cigarlover said:
So if tariffs are not allowed do we get our money back and does trump have to pay back everything collected?
Click to expand...

Don't know about this, but since we're raking in trillions I want my slice of the pie. And I don't want a 600 buck check. I want a bare min of 10K. I get that and I'll reregister as R. 20K and I'll sing T's praises.

It's time to share the wealth.
 
Jennifer has some interesting points about the tariffs in the first part of the vid.

searcher

Post in thread 'Do any of you invest in Treasury Bills?'

Rates Dropping Fast If Trump Gets His Way? Here's What The Supreme Court Could Do.​


Sep 1, 2025 #jenniferlammer #bondbeginners #bondmasters
Two court battles could shake up our T-bills, notes and bonds in the coming months as they head closer to the Supreme Court💰 Will the Supreme Court save or derail our economy & US Treasuries? Let's look at the facts and find out!


19:00

SOURCES & REFERENCED VIDEO:

- Trump & Bessent On The US Budget Deficit: https://youtu.be/kqeiLVmZB1s

-...
 
en.wikipedia.org

Extortion - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

In the https://www.pmbug.com/threads/tin-foil-hats-economic-reality-and-the-total-perspective-vortex.75/ thread there are a lot of posts on BRICS. Since T has enacted all kinds of tariffs on all sorts of countries I've been thinking that eventually it could drive some countries to get together and stop trading with us and trade among each other and possibly use a different currency for their trades, bypassing us altogether.

While I have no clue if this will happen there's a possibility it could. A lot of times when T talks about tariffs he kinda comes across as an extortionist in my opinion. Especially when he talks like this:



stocktwits.com

Trump Fumes At BRICS — Now Other Nations Are Banding Together To Counter US Tariffs

Potential members of a new group include Morocco, Rwanda, Malaysia, Uruguay, Costa Rica, Panama, Paraguay and Norway, although the final member list of the group hasn’t been confirmed yet.
stocktwits.com stocktwits.com
 
searcher said:
Since T has enacted all kinds of tariffs on all sorts of countries I've been thinking that eventually it could drive some countries to get together and stop trading with us and trade among each other and possibly use a different currency for their trades, bypassing us altogether.
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Are you hoping for that?


Imho, for that to happen they'll either have to settle for doing a lot less business, or find a way to replace the market that America currently represents.

Last i saw, the US consumes at least 25% of all the World's mfg'd goods.

What will replace that?
 
Joe King said:
Are you hoping for that?


Imho, for that to happen they'll either have to settle for doing a lot less business, or find a way to replace the market that America currently represents.

Last i saw, the US consumes at least 25% of all the World's mfg'd goods.

What will replace that?
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The new BFFs China, Russia and India will fall apart soon enough. Those countries are loaded with scammers with China and Indian competing directly against each other in normal trade not to mention all of the border disputes. It will be interesting to see which of them blinks first and runs back to the USA not to be trusted.
 

What Trump’s tariff loss in court means for shippers and the billions in trade duties collected by U.S. government​

  • President Trump’s trade war suffered a big setback with many of his administration’s tariffs ruled illegal by a federal appeals court last Friday, opening up the potential for billions of dollars in trade duties needing to be refunded to businesses and throwing into question trade deals struck by the White House with other nations.
  • But for now, the underlying stance within the shipping industry and supply chain has not changed, according to logistics professionals, with the court decision — a stay is in place until October 14 — contributing to the uncertainty that that has dogged business decision making throughout 2025.
President Donald Trump’s trade war suffered a big setback with many of his administration’s tariffs ruled illegal by a federal appeals court last Friday. Billions of dollars in trade duties may potentially need to be refunded to businesses as trade deals struck by the White House with other nations are thrown into question. But for now, the underlying stance within the shipping industry and supply chain has not changed, according to logistics professionals, with the court decision — a stay is in place until October 14 — contributing to the uncertainty that has dogged business decision making throughout 2025.

More:

 

Trump will ask Supreme Court for ‘expedited ruling’ on tariffs appeal​

  • President Donald Trump said he will ask the Supreme Court for an “expedited ruling” to overturn an appeals court decision that found most of his tariffs are illegal.
  • “If you take away tariffs, we could end up being a third-world country,” Trump told reporters at the White House
President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he will ask the Supreme Court for an “expedited ruling” to overturn an appeals court decision that found most of his tariffs on imports from other countries are illegal.

“If you take away tariffs, we could end up being a third-world country,” Trump told reporters at the White House.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, in a 7-4 ruling on Friday, said that Trump does not have the authority to implement most of his tariffs.

More:

 

A Trump loss in his tariff court case could mean a $150 billion refund for American businesses. Here’s how they could get their money back​


A federal court of appeals said President Trump overstepped his authority when he imposed sweeping tariffs. Now, American importers are scrambling to see if they’ll get a refund on the more than $150 billion they already paid.

The court ruled Friday that the Trump administration could not use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which allows the president “broad authority to regulate a variety of economic transactions following a declaration of national emergency” as justification for his unilaterally imposed tariffs. The ruling largely upheld a May decision by a federal trade court in New York.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...their-money-back/ar-AA1LOlr2?ocid=socialshare
 
searcher said:

A Trump loss in his tariff court case could mean a $150 billion refund for American businesses. Here’s how they could get their money back​


A federal court of appeals said President Trump overstepped his authority when he imposed sweeping tariffs. Now, American importers are scrambling to see if they’ll get a refund on the more than $150 billion they already paid.

The court ruled Friday that the Trump administration could not use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which allows the president “broad authority to regulate a variety of economic transactions following a declaration of national emergency” as justification for his unilaterally imposed tariffs. The ruling largely upheld a May decision by a federal trade court in New York.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...their-money-back/ar-AA1LOlr2?ocid=socialshare
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Seems stupid to give the potus those powers, but then prevent him from using those powers.

Asked ai, what is the Emergency Economic Powers Act for?

The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) grants the U.S. President authority to declare a national emergency and implement economic sanctions or other regulations in response to an unusual and extraordinary threat to the nation's security, foreign policy, or economy originating outside the U.S. Enacted in 1977, IEEPA provides a framework for tools like economic embargoes and asset freezes, serving as a cornerstone of U.S. sanctions policy administered by entities like the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).

How It's Used:
Addressing Threats:
Presidents use IEEPA to respond to threats to national security and foreign policy, such as hostile foreign actors or widespread trade imbalances.
Examples of Use:
Presidents have used IEEPA to respond to threats like the migration crisis, trade deficits, and the opioid supply chain.



Good thing we don't have widespread trade imbalances. lol
 
Looks like the media is eating this up. T sells.

Trump Is Trying to Blackmail the Supreme Court​

Donald Trump is making a last-ditch effort to salvage his beloved, beleaguered tariff policy, heading to the Supreme Court in hopes that the Republican appointees will come to his rescue. The desperation is both palpable and warranted given the conspicuous weakness of the administration’s legal arguments, as underscored by a series of lower court rulings against him. That has in turn led the president and his aides to make increasingly histrionic public claims about what will happen if the Supreme Court does not cave and side with Trump.

Call it The Chicken Little Defense: If the courts do not sign off on the administration’s tariffs, it “would be a total disaster for the Country” and “would literally destroy the United States of America,” Trump said on Friday after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled that the bulk of the president’s tariffs are illegal. He doubled down on those claims on Tuesday while tacking on the transparently ridiculous assertion that the U.S. is “taking in $17 trillion … because of tariffs.”

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...he-supreme-court/ar-AA1LR1F8?ocid=socialshare
 

Impacts of tariffs start to show following Labor Day Weekend​

Sep 2, 2025 #alabama #birmingham #trumpadministration
As Labor Day shopping kicks off, consumers are facing a challenging landscape due to tariffs impacting prices. According to Trae Bodge, a smart shopping expert, consumers are currently shouldering about 22% of tariff-related price hikes, a figure that could rise to 67% by October.


7:20
 

Trump's tariffs were supposed to revive U.S. manufacturing. They're wrecking it.​

In his inauguration speech, President Donald Trump promised that his sweeping tariff regime would help America become a "manufacturing nation once again." But so far his tariffs and his broader handling of the economy are achieving the opposite reality: New data shows America's manufacturing sector has been shrinking consistently — and executives in the industry are complaining about tariffs as a key factor.

Bloomberg reported Tuesday that "US factory activity shrank in August for a sixth straight month, driven by a pullback in production that shows manufacturing remains bogged down by higher import duties."

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...y-re-wrecking-it/ar-AA1LWzD1?ocid=socialshare
 

Who Really Pays for Trump’s Tariffs?​

Sep 1, 2025 The Financial History Files
Tariffs aren’t making rivals pay — they’re making you pay. In this episode of The Financial Historian, we expose how Trump’s “Big, Beautiful” tax cuts for the wealthy are quietly balanced by tariffs that hit ordinary households. From Wall Street boardrooms to Walmart receipts, history shows who really carries the cost.
If this gave you a new perspective, hit subscribe. History has the answers — I’ll show you where to look.


10:20
 
Bold italics emphasis is mine:
STRENGTHENING THE ECONOMY AND NATIONAL SECURITY THROUGH TARIFFS AND TRADE DEALS: Today, President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order modifying the scope of the reciprocal tariffs that he first announced on April 2, 2025, and establishing a framework to implement agreements with our trading partners.

  • President Trump is strengthening the international economic position of the United States and protecting American workers by modifying the scope of reciprocal tariffs.
    • On April 2, the President imposed historic global reciprocal tariffs to address the national emergency posed by our large and persistent trade deficit, which is driven by the absence of reciprocity in our trade relationships and other harmful policies perpetuated by other countries, and by the consequences of that trade deficit.
    • These tariffs have applied to nearly all imports, except for certain classes of products, such as articles subject to 50 U.S.C. § 1702(b); articles potentially subject to other tariff regimes like pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber articles; and articles listed in Annex II of Executive Order 14257.
    • The President has now determined that it is necessary and appropriate to modify the scope of the articles listed in Annex II to deal with the national emergency and protect America’s economic and national security.
      • Some goods have been added to Annex II, meaning they will no longer be subject to reciprocal tariffs. These goods include bullion-related articles and certain critical minerals and pharmaceutical products subject to pending Section 232 investigations.
      • Some goods have been removed from Annex II, meaning they are now subject to reciprocal tariffs. These goods include certain aluminum hydroxide, resin, and silicone products.
    • A modified Annex II is attached to today’s Order, and the modifications will take effect on September 8, 2025.
  • President Trump is advancing reciprocal trade by establishing a framework to implement existing and future trade deals.
    • Today’s Order establishes the “Potential Tariff Adjustments for Aligned Partners” (PTAAP) Annex, which contains the list of products for which the President may be willing to apply only the Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) tariff upon the conclusion of any future reciprocal trade and security deal. These products fall in four categories:
      • certain aircraft and aircraft parts;
      • certain generic pharmaceuticals and their ingredients;
      • unavailable natural resources and closely related derivative products; and
      • certain agricultural products not grown or produced in sufficient quantity in the United States to meet domestic demand.
    • To earn a reduction of reciprocal tariffs for some or all of the products listed in the PTAAP Annex, a trading partner must conclude a deal with the United States that helps mitigate the national emergency relating to the trade deficit. Additionally, the President will evaluate the extent of a trading partner’s commitments to address U.S. trade concerns, among other things, when determining which products on the PTAAP Annex qualify for a tariff reduction.
    • The President delegated to senior officials, including the Secretary of Commerce and the United States Trade Representative, the authority to implement deals with our trading partners.

TAKING DECISIVE ACTION TO ADDRESS A NATIONAL EMERGENCY: President Trump is modifying the scope of reciprocal tariffs and streamlining the implementation of trade deals to protect U.S. national security interests, reinforce domestic supply chains, and bolster America’s industrial base.

  • President Trump has taken several tariff actions in the interests of the American people, including:
    • Imposing a 20% tariff on China to address the synthetic opioid supply chain, a 25% tariff on Mexico to address the flow of illicit drugs across our southern border, and a 35% tariff on Canada to address the flow of illicit drugs across our northern border.
    • Imposing reciprocal tariffs, with many trading partners subject to individualized, ad valorem reciprocal tariffs, to rectify trade practices that contribute to America’s exploding annual goods trade deficit, and to remedy the consequences of the United States’ exploding trade deficit.
    • Imposing an additional 40% tariff on Brazil following recent actions of the Government of Brazil that threaten the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States.
    • Imposing an additional 25% tariff on imports from India in response to its continued purchase of Russian Federation oil.
    • Imposing Section 232 tariffs on imports of automobiles and auto parts, copper, steel, and aluminum to protect and strengthen America’s industries, which are critical to America’s economic welfare and national security.
  • These actions protect national security, strengthen supply chains, and support American workers and industries.
  • Today’s Order revises Annex II to more effectively address the national emergency declared in Executive Order 14257 and establishes a process to streamline the implementation of trade deals with America’s trading partners.
  • By taking further action today, President Trump is ensuring America’s trade policies benefit the American people, strengthen national security, and promote economic fairness.

DELIVERING FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE: President Trump’s tariff policies have generated significant investment into the United States, strengthening the U.S. economy while addressing unfair trade practices that have disadvantaged American workers for decades.

  • By imposing tariffs on countries with nonreciprocal trade practices, President Trump is incentivizing manufacturing on American soil and defending our industries.
  • The Trump Administration has worked with America’s trading partners to craft tailor-made trade deals designed to eliminate their most distortive trade practices and to ensure that trading partners align with the United States on key economic and national security matters.
    • In a massive deal with the European Union, the EU has agreed to purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy and make new investments of $600 billion in the United States, all by 2028, while accepting a 15% tariff rate, and charging American companies zero.
    • Japan has agreed to invest $550 billion in the United States to rebuild and expand core American industries, as well as to further open its own market to U.S. exports, all while paying a baseline 15% tariff rate.
    • The United States-United Kingdom trade deal includes billions of dollars of increased market access for American exports.
    • Additional trade deals with Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea, Vietnam, and others will, among other things, protect our industries, open foreign markets, and encourage foreign investment in American industries.
  • With billions in reshoring investments already announced, President Trump is bringing manufacturing jobs back to America, revitalizing communities, and strengthening supply chains.
  • The Administration will continue to use all available tools to protect our national security, advance our economic interests, and uphold a system of trade based in fairness and reciprocity.
Click to expand...

www.whitehouse.gov

Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Modifies the Scope of Reciprocal Tariffs and Establishes Procedures for Implementing Trade Deals

STRENGTHENING THE ECONOMY AND NATIONAL SECURITY THROUGH TARIFFS AND TRADE DEALS: Today, President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order modifying the
www.whitehouse.gov www.whitehouse.gov

... These goods include bullion-related articles and certain critical minerals and pharmaceutical products subject to pending Section 232 investigations.
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That's some unfortunate/ambiguous wording. Are bullion-related articles pending Section 232 investigations or just pharmaceutical products?
 
Details published here:

www.whitehouse.gov

Modifying The Scope of Reciprocal Tariffs and Establishing Procedures for Implementing Trade and Security Agreements

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the International Emergency
www.whitehouse.gov www.whitehouse.gov

The new list for Article II published here (gold category additions listed on page 33):


I'm not an expert on this subject, but either they have way more categories for gold than they do for silver or they neglected to give silver equal treatment to gold from what I see.
 
article2.webp

Those are the changes pertinent to gold. I didn't see any additions specific to silver.
 
WSJ

U.S. Importers Eye Refund Options as Tariff Fight Goes to Supreme Court​


Days after a federal appeals court struck down many of President Trump’s tariffs, Mark Riskowitz started preparing for a refund claim.

The vice president of operations at cookware company Caraway Home began compiling records of customs entry forms and tariff payments for a claim that could total more than $1 million, if the courts ultimately decide in importers’ favor.

“If there is a decision that [the tariffs] are ruled illegal and importers are eligible for refunds, we want to claw that back pretty much immediately,” Riskowitz said.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...to-supreme-court/ar-AA1M0EVu?ocid=socialshare
 

Postal traffic to the U.S. sank 80% after Trump administration ended exemption on low-value parcels​

Postal traffic into the United States plunged by more than 80% after the Trump administration ended a tariff exemption for low-cost imports, the United Nations postal agency said Saturday.

The Universal Postal Union says it has started rolling out new measures that can help postal operators around the world calculate and collect duties, or taxes, after the U.S. eliminated the so-called “de minimis exemption” for lower-value parcels.

Eighty-eight postal operators have told the UPU that they have suspended some or all postal services to the United States until a solution is implemented with regard to U.S.-bound parcels valued at $800 or less, which had been the cutoff for imported goods to escape customs charges.

More:

 
pmbug said:
🚨Silver bullion is likely exempt from USA tariffs.

I dug deeper into the silver tariff issue (see tweet quoted below for background). The CBP letter of July 31 explained that gold bullion bars - cast or extruded with stamps indicating purity and weight - were not classified under 7108.12.10 (bullion and dore), but rather 7108.13.55 (Rectangular or near rectangular shapes, containing 99.5 percent or more by weight of gold and not otherwise marked or decorated than with weight, purity, or other identifying information).

I found the page in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) that lists silver classifications. Silver has comparable classification codes to the gold codes: 7106.91.10 (bullion and dore) and 7106.92.10 (Rectangular or near rectangular shapes, containing 99.5 percent or more by weight of silver and not otherwise marked or decorated than with weight, purity, or other identifying information)

It seems logical to me that silver bullion bars that are cast or extruded with stamps indicating purity and weight - such as 1,000 ozt London Good Delivery silver bars used by the LBMA and COMEX and the basis for physically settling EFP trades - would be classified under 7106.92.10 given the CBP's guidance in the July 31 letter.

Curiously, the HTS lists 7106.92.10 rate as "Free". I did not see this code listed in the Article II exempt list provided with the most recent Executive Order, so it's not clear to me when this classification code was set to free, but it looks like it isn't going to be an issue for the COMEX~LBMA EFP trade.
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Treasury Secretary Bessent warns of massive refunds if the Supreme Court voids Trump tariffs​

  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he is “confident” President Donald Trump’s tariff plan “will win” at the Supreme Court, but warned the U.S. would be forced to issue massive refunds if it loses.
  • National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett noted that there are “other legal authorities” that the administration could use if the tariffs are blocked.
  • Before court action, Trump’s tariffs were set to affect nearly 70% of U.S. goods imports.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that he is “confident” that President Donald Trump’s tariff plan “will win” at the Supreme Court, but warned his agency would be forced to issue massive refunds if the high court rules against it.

If the tariffs are struck down, he said, “we would have to give a refund on about half the tariffs, which would be terrible for the Treasury,” according to an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

He added, however, that “if the court says it, we’d have to do it.”

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