US - China relations

Ray Dalio posted comments:

pmbug said:

Ray Dalio posted comments:

What I Think Is Going On 1) with China-US Relations, 2) with Their Relations with Other Countries, and 3) in China

In my last post, I described the big cycle template, consisting of the five major forces. Today’s post is the follow-up I promised, focusing on the great power conflict and what’s going on with China.

www.linkedin.com

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Good read. Thanks for posting it.


Some thoughts as I read.



Ray Dalio:
"We are on the brink of an economic resources war."

Isn't that what typically precedes shooting wars?
....and up to that point in the article, he seems to be describing exactly that. The things that come first? Like everyone picking sides, as we see nations starting to do now?

What do we, as a nation, bring to the table to entice others to pick our side?

China brings the trade, which is one of the main things we used to bring and was a big part of the reason for the US assuming the top-dog role 80 odd years ago.

As for top dog role, isn't that what it all boils down to? A real World game of king of the hill?
Being the guy on top of the hill, ya gotta expect that those up and coming will eventually want to challenge our position.
...but in all those years, there's been no challengers and we've grown complacent when it comes to doing the things that got us there in the first place.


"...and if there is a military war it would be good to have agreements such as 1) no side’s military will directly kill the other side’s military, 2) no fighting will take place on the other side’s lands, and 3) neither side will use nuclear, cyber, and space weapons, etc. It is hoped that in that way, if there is war, it will be contained.


That sounds nice, and is a good idea, but it ultimately won't/can't work.
At least not if said war will ultimately have a winner and a loser.

Sure, you can agree to rules at the strat, but as soon as one side sees itself losing, those rules are gonna be out the window. No nation is gonna gracefully accept defeat while still controlling bigger weapons/tactics that they think would allow them to win, but have not used due to a deal they made before the war.
....and China certainly has made clear that it seeks to eventually dethrone the US from its king of the hill position in the World.

Simply put, they are up and coming and want their time in the Sun, so to speak. They want to be on top of the hill.
....and in those kinds of battles, whoever wants it most typically wins, and China seems to want really bad. Do they want it more? We'll find out together.


"...there is a growing belief among Chinese and many other countries’ leaders that the United States is in decline, plagued with domestic issues."

I can't really say that they are wrong. I see the same thing they see.
....and that, unfortunately, is gonna help make it easier for a lot of other nations when it comes to picking sides.

If they saw us as being stronger than ever with decline nowhere in sight, we wouldn't even be having this conversation.



"There is a strong belief that the world is desperately in need of stronger multilateral 1) leadership, 2) systems, and 3) institutions, and that China is very likely to play a leading role in helping to provide these"

Which is why we see China trying to play middleman/peacemaker.
Ie: Iran/SA and Russia/Ukraine.

They are trying to show the World that they can play that role that the US has dominated since WW2



"I hear and I believe that for the United States to win this war of geopolitical influence it will have to be much stronger (i.e., “get its own house in order”) and present a more generous and preferable path to other nations."

Does anyone reading, see any chance of that happening anytime soon? I sure don't.



"Xi made it clear that he is preparing for “the 100-year storm” on the horizon."

They're making 100 year plans while we (our dysfunctional gov) can't see past the next election.

Granted, they may never achieve their 100 year plans, but I do know that setting goals and always working towards them provides a lot better chance of having those goals come to fruition, than does always conducting affairs on a short term basis, as we seem to do as a nation.

Other than banning new ice cars, what is our govs plans for improving our position in the World over just the next ten years?
....let alone the next 100.
....and I'm not saying that banning ice cars will improve our position. Just sayin' that it's the only long-ish term thing they talk about.


"Some say that this move to a more Maoist approach will pass, pointing to the period right after the Tiananmen incident as being just like this one and that there was a return to a much more open and reforming environment"

Difference is, they were not onthe brink of war at the time of the Tiananmen square atrocity.
...and as Ray pointed out, times of war brings more top-down control, not less.


"At the same time, most Chinese people are living their lives as normal, oblivious to and largely unaffected by the changes."


Same as most people here.

Isn't that the it always is when these things are heating up? People strive to maintain normalcy in their lives? It's only us weirdos* who try to figure out what's coming, that follow this stuff.

* how so-called normal people see us, at least. Lol




" I heard it estimated that generative AI (ChatGPT-like technologies) are behind those in the US by at least two years and won’t be able to keep up (because they don’t have the chips), which will be a serious problem for them falling behind, which concerns them greatly."

That's what I think will cause them to move on Taiwan sooner as opposed to later. Ie: they want those chip fabs.
....and the longer they wait, the worse off in those technologies China becomes, and the stronger that Taiwan becomes.

It's obvious the USA has been hijacked by jackholes. Whether it's internal or the politicians and elites got bought off by the Chinese there is no doubt the USA has lost most of its credibilty.

It's a shame and it could come down to our grandkids making Nike sneakers for some rich spoiled Chinese kids. Doesn't that make you sick?

pmbug said:

Ray Dalio posted comments:

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Here's a good interview with him that I just ran across.

I'm 1/5 through the video. It's a good interview. Thanks for sharing.

pmbug said:

I'm 1/5 through the video. It's a good interview. Thanks for sharing.

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I kinda thought that you'd like it.
....and you're welcome.

pmbug said:

I'm 1/5 through the video. It's a good interview. Thanks for sharing.

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Just curious, did you happen to take his test that he mentioned in the vid?

I had to stop watching. I did not see where he mentioned a test (yet?). Is it something found online?

pmbug said:

I had to stop watching. I did not see where he mentioned a test (yet?). Is it something found online?

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It was about halfway or so that he mentioned it, I think.

Somewhere around where he talked about his video, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order.

PrinciplesYou. From Ray Dalio.​

Understand yourself.
Understand others.
Help others understand you.​

PrinciplesYou was built to help people learn what they are really like. Its creators include Ray Dalio, entrepreneur and investor who grew Bridgewater Associates from his two bedroom apartment to the fifth most important private company in the US, and expert psychologists Dr. Adam Grant, Dr. Brian Little and Dr. John Golden. The test brings together their diverse expertise, combining best-in-class assessment frameworks, leading personality science, and practical and proven insights from decades of business experience.

Was asking because of you posting those other tests, and it made me think you like stuff like this.

Joe King said:

Was asking because of you posting those other tests, and it made me think you like stuff like this.

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The ones I posted before were just for fun. They can sometimes spark interesting conversation.

Senator Wicker Introduces The US Shipyard Act​

John Konrad
Total Views: 1012
May 4, 2023

by Captain John Konrad (gCaptain) Yesterday on the floor of Congress, Roger Wicker, the senior United States senator from Mississippi, addressed his fellow lawmakers about an issue that has been gnawing at the very fabric of our nation’s security: the shrinking size of the US Navy in the face of a growing Chinese naval force. With the weight of history on his shoulders, Wicker announced the US Shipyard Act, a bold move to revitalize our maritime infrastructure and regain our footing in the world’s waters.

Wicker paints a stark picture of the current state of the US Navy, contrasting it with China’s rapid growth. He cites an alarming report predicting that by the end of this decade, China will have a fleet of 440 warships while the US will have only 290. The Chinese fleet’s expansion poses a direct threat not only to the United States but also to our allies in the region, including Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan.

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From the link:

The United States has “been unmistakably clear” in warning China against providing Russia with lethal weapons in its war with Ukraine, the American ambassador to Beijing said Tuesday.

“What we need to see from China is to push Russia to remove its troops” from Ukraine and put an end to the Kremlin’s missile and drone attacks on civilians, Nicholas Burns said.

WASHINGTON, May 5 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden's administration plans to send $500 million worth of weapons aid to Taiwan using the same emergency authority that has been used more than 35 times for Ukraine, a source familiar with the plan said on Friday.

"NATO’s post-Cold War history is that of an organization far past its “sell-by” date. Desperate for a mission after the end of the Warsaw Pact, NATO in the late 1990s decided that it would become the muscle behind the militarization of “human rights” under the Clinton Administration.

Gone was the “threat of global communism” which was used to justify NATO’s 40-year run, so NATO re-imagined itself as a band of armed Atlanticist superheroes. Wherever there was an “injustice” (as defined by Washington’s neocons), NATO was ready with guns and bombs.

The US military-industrial complex could not have been happier. All the Beltway think tanks they lavishly fund finally hit on a sure winner to keep the money pipeline flowing. It was always about money, not security.

The test run for NATO as human rights superheroes was Yugoslavia in 1999. To everybody but NATO and its neocon handlers in DC and many European capitals, it was a horrific, unjustified disaster. Seventy-eight days of bombing a country that did not threaten NATO left many hundreds of civilians dead, the infrastructure destroyed, and a legacy of uranium-tipped ammunition to poison the landscape for generations to come.

Just last week tennis legend Novak Djokovic recalled what it felt like to flee his grandfather’s home in the middle of the night as NATO bombs fell and destroyed it. What a horror!

Then NATO got behind the overthrow of the Gaddafi government in Libya. The corporate press regurgitated the neocon lies that bombing the country, killing its people, and overthrowing its government would solve all of Libya’s human rights problems. As could be predicted, NATO bombs did not solve Libya’s problems but made everything worse. Chaos, civil war, terrorism, slave markets, crushing poverty – no wonder Hillary Clinton, Obama, and the neocons don’t want to talk about Libya these days.

After a series of failures longer than we have space for here, DC-controlled NATO in 2014 decided to go all-in and target Russia itself for “regime change.” First step was overthrowing the democratically elected Ukrainian government, which Victoria Nuland and the rest of the neocons took care of. Next was the eight years of massive NATO military assistance to Ukraine’s coup government with the intent of fighting Russia. Finally, it was the 2022 rejection of Russia’s request to negotiate a European security agreement that would prevent NATO armies circling its border.

Despite the mainstream media and US government propaganda, NATO has been about as successful in Ukraine as it was in Libya. Hundreds of billions of dollars have been flushed away, with massive corruption documented by journalists like Seymour Hersh and others.

The only difference this time is that NATO’s target – Russia – has nuclear weapons and views this proxy war as vital to its very existence.

So now despite its legacy of failure, NATO has decided to start a conflict with China, perhaps to take attention off its disaster in Ukraine. Last week NATO announced that it will open its first-ever Asia office in Japan. What next, NATO membership for Taiwan? Will Taiwan willingly serve as NATO’s newest “Ukraine” – sacrificing itself to China in the name of blundering NATO’s seemingly endless appetite for conflict?

We can only hope that America will elect a president in 2024 who will finally end NATO’s deadly world tour."

Report to Congress on Taiwan Political, Security Issues​

May 9, 2023 7:15 AM

The following is the April 26, 2023 Congressional Research Service In Focus report, Taiwan: Political and Security Issues.

From the report​

Taiwan, which officially calls itself the Republic of China (ROC), is a self-governing democracy of 23 million people located across the Taiwan Strait from mainland China. U.S.-Taiwan relations have been unofficial since January 1, 1979, when the United States established diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and broke them with the ROC. As a condition for diplomatic relations with the PRC, the U.S. government agreed to withdraw U.S. military personnel from Taiwan within four months and to terminate the U.S.-ROC Mutual Defense Treaty effective January 1, 1980. The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act (TRA, P.L. 96-8; 22 U.S.C. §3301 et seq.) provides a legal basis for unofficial relations. See also CRS In Focus IF10256, U.S.-Taiwan Trade Relations.

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David vs. Goliath: Southeast Asia Can Resist China’s Gray Zone Aggression in the South China Sea . . . with Help​

The stereotypical image of Southeast Asian nation responses to China’s maritime coercion in the South China Sea is one of meekness or, at worst, submission. While sometimes true, this view is based on the fact that Southeast Asian countries are smaller and weaker than China and that their economic dependence must limit their responses to Beijing’s aggression. Compounding this perception, several regional capitals frequently send mixed signals, creating the impression of policy confusion or paralysis. The reality, however, is nuanced. These states exercise agency and assert their interests when possible, including by directly pushing back against China’s coercive behavior. Whether their responses are optimal is debatable, but the image of weak nations not willing to push back is often incorrect or at least incomplete. As the United States seeks to coalesce a regional response to thwart China’s gray zone efforts to dominate the South China Sea, it should tap into and bolster this “David vs. Goliath” spirit and courage.

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Taiwan manufactures way better crap than mainland China. They need to make more robust durable goods like high quality household major appliances that will last more than 5 years. Refrigerators, stoves, W&Ds and air conditioners are now disposable POS.

nickndfl said:

Taiwan manufactures way better crap than mainland China. ...

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They are the best in the world at semiconductor manufacturing AFAIK:

pmbug said:

They are the best in the world at semiconductor manufacturing AFAIK:

TSMC - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

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That's one of the primary reasons the CPP wants to invade it and why the Taiwanese are offshoring chip manufacturing back to the USA.

Taiwan’s defense minister in statements early this week pushed back against the idea of the US bombing the island’s semiconductor factories in the event of a Chinese invasion.

Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) recently said the US should "make it very clear to the Chinese that if you invade Taiwan, we’re going to blow up TSMC," referring to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which produces the majority of the world’s advanced semiconductors.
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^^^ "Taiwan’s defense minister in statements early this week pushed back against the idea of the US bombing the island’s semiconductor factories in the event of a Chinese invasion."


They can say that all they want, and to be fair, at this point they kinda have to say that.
.....but if push comes to shove and it looks like China will "acquire" them, those fabs are gonna get the Nordstream treatment.
....at the least.

A People’s Liberation Army Navy surface action group is continuing its circumnavigation of Japan ahead of the annual G-7 summit later this month in Hiroshima.

The surface action group – which includes cruiser CNS Lhasa (102), destroyer CNS Guiyang (119), frigate CNS Zaozhuang (542) and fleet oiler CNS Taihu (889) – was sighted at midnight on Thursday sailing southwest in an area 56 miles east of Sumisu Island, part of the Izu Island chain that lies south of Japan’s capital of Tokyo. The SAG then sailed west between Sumisu Island and the island of Tori-Shima, according to the Joint Staff Office of Japan’s Ministry of Defense. The group previously transited northeast through the Tsushima Strait on April 30 and northeast through La Pérouse Strait, which separates Hokkaido from Russia’s Sakhalin Island, on May 6. Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer JS Suzunami (DD-114) shadowed the PLAN ships, according to the release.

For the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), 2022 was another banner year. Although the largest navy on the planet did not commission as many ships and submarines as in 2021, it continued to outproduce the U.S. Navy in total numbers of ships, tonnage, and supersonic antiship cruise missiles.

The PLAN returned to sea with expanded “far seas operations” highlighted by PLAN carrier operations outside the first island chain, along with support to the PLA’s Taiwan-focused combined arms firepower exercise and increased combined operations with Russia and others. All in all, the PLA demonstrated why it may be the most dominant naval force in the western Pacific and is able to execute all orders—including the increasing likelihood of an invasion of Taiwan.

From the link:

American leaders have finally awakened to the challenges posed by an ascendant People’s Republic of China (PRC). Over two presidential administrations, the U.S. has strived to better defend the country from PRC policies that harm American interests, from unfair trade practices to actions that undermine U.S. partnerships and alliances. U.S. policymakers describe the new approach as “great power competition” or “strategic competition,” implying that U.S.-China antagonism is, and shall remain, below the threshold of armed conflict.

May 24 (Reuters) - A state-sponsored Chinese hacking group has been spying on a wide range of U.S. critical infrastructure organizations, from telecommunications to transportation hubs, Western intelligence agencies and Microsoft (MSFT.O) said on Wednesday.

The espionage has also targeted the U.S. island territory of Guam, home to strategically important American military bases, Microsoft said in a report, adding that "mitigating this attack could be challenging."

VIDEO: Chinese Warship Harasses U.S. Destroyer in Taiwan Strait Transit​

This post has been updated with a video of the incident and new photos from the U.S. Navy.

A People’s Liberation Army Navy warship cut across the bow of a U.S. guided-missile destroyer on Saturday while it was transiting the Taiwan Strait, according to a report from embarked journalists.

USS Chung-Hoon (DDG-93) and HMCS Montreal (FFH-336) were transiting the strait when a PLAN warship cut across the bow of Chung-Hoon, according to a report from Canadian outlet Global News.

China’s Minister of National Defense warned foreign powers not to operate warships and aircraft close to its territorial waters and blamed Washington for recent provocative encounters between U.S. and Chinese units.

Gen. Li Shangfu, speaking on Sunday at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, singled out a Western policy he called “hegemony of navigation” as the provocation for Saturday’s incident in the Taiwan Strait between guided-missile destroyer USS Chung-Hoon (DDG-93) and People’s Liberation Army Navy guided-missile destroyer CNS Suzhou (132) during a Taiwan Strait transit.

Yawn. Let me know when China dumps it’s U.S. Treasury holdings then we will know things are getting serious. This is just guys playing with their tonka toys.

China is planting Fields of Stones stuck to Metal Bars - No, Really​

Cuba Spy Station Brings China Rivalry to America’s Doorstep​

China’s plan for an eavesdropping station in Cuba serves as a marker for Beijing’s global power ambitions, planting its spiraling rivalry with the U.S. on America’s doorstep.

The listening post, which will be 100 miles off Florida, would potentially give the Chinese military capabilities to monitor communications across a wide stretch of the southern U.S.

More important, the facility roots China in a region of economic and geopolitical importance, broadens the playing field as it jostles Washington for influence and turns the tables on an enduring sore point for Beijing—U.S. spying off Chinese shores.

More here:

searcher said:

Cuba Spy Station Brings China Rivalry to America’s Doorstep​

China’s plan for an eavesdropping station in Cuba serves as a marker for Beijing’s global power ambitions, planting its spiraling rivalry with the U.S. on America’s doorstep.

The listening post, which will be 100 miles off Florida, would potentially give the Chinese military capabilities to monitor communications across a wide stretch of the southern U.S.

More important, the facility roots China in a region of economic and geopolitical importance, broadens the playing field as it jostles Washington for influence and turns the tables on an enduring sore point for Beijing—U.S. spying off Chinese shores.

More here:

Cuba Spy Station Brings China Rivalry to America’s Doorstep

A planned listening post 100 miles off Florida will turn the tables on a sore point for Beijing—U.S. spying off Chinese shores.

www.wsj.com

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What a waste of money! Why not just set up a spy as a White House cook? Much cheaper IMHO

andial said:

What a waste of money! Why not just set up a spy as a White House cook? Much cheaper IMHO

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They should. Their biggest expense would be another $10million to the bidens to grease it.
....and the doj sure wouldn't do anything about it. Garland would prolly swap recipes with the guy.

Joe King said:

They should. Their biggest expense would be another $10million to the bidens to grease it.
....and the doj sure wouldn't do anything about it. Garland would prolly swap recipes with the guy.

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Get reading sir. Surface story here, then dig deeper on your own, or not.

FACTS ARE STUBBORN THINGS: THE DANGERS OF A PROTRACTED WAR WITH CHINA​

Uncomfortable facts often get in the way of what we want to be true. Such is the case of the United States’ capacity to defeat China in a prolonged conflict. Recent wargame findings assert that the United States could fight an invasion of Taiwan to a stalemate. Wargames are useful to assess possible outcomes and develop strategies, but this particular outcome is optimistic at best and is underpinned by flawed assumptions. In reality, any conflict over Taiwan will almost certainly be a prolonged war that favors China.

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If we go to war with China where will the DollarTree and Walmart get their cheap crap to sell to us?

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday ended a high-stakes visit to Beijing with an unexpected meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The latter stressed the importance of steady relations between the two nations after a period of simmering tensions.

During the meeting at the Diaoyutai state guest house — which lasted 35 minutes, according to the U.S. State Department — Xi said that the world needed a "generally stable" China-U.S. relationship, according to a translated readout from China's foreign ministry.

Xi added that whether the two countries "can find the right way to get along bears on the future and destiny of humanity."

"I hope that, through this visit, Mr. Secretary, you will make more positive contributions to stabilizing China-U.S. relations," the Chinese leader said in a video carried by Chinese state television outlet CCTV, following "candid and in-depth discussions" between the two officials that led to progress and agreement on some undetailed "specific issues."

Blinken said both sides agreed on the need for the U.S. and China to stabilize bilateral ties, before adding that Washington had "no illusions" about the challenges of managing the relationship. Blinken said the U.S. was an advocate for "de-risking and diversifying" economic engagement with China, echoing an approach recently adopted by the G7.
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Real concern might be driving this, or China could be playing nice before invading Taiwan.

Big tell. If USA went over there it was subordinate. If China came here instead I would say advantage US. US prolly rolled over in a fetal position.

Biden's tongue was a bit loose (but not necessarily wrong)...

China hit back on Wednesday after U.S. President Joe Biden referred to President Xi Jinping as a "dictator", saying the remarks were absurd and a provocation in an unexpected row following efforts by both sides to lower tensions.

Biden made his comments just a day after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Beijing to stabilize relations that China says are at their lowest point since formal ties were established.

Attending a fundraiser in California, Biden said Xi was very embarrassed when a suspected Chinese spy balloon was blown off course over U.S. airspace early this year. Blinken had said on Monday the chapter should be closed.

"The reason why Xi Jinping got very upset in terms of when I shot that balloon down with two box cars full of spy equipment in it was he didn't know it was there," Biden said.

"That's a great embarrassment for dictators. When they didn't know what happened. That wasn't supposed to be going where it was. It was blown off course," Biden said.
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Xi seems concerned about political stability amongst his peers:

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China recently concluded hosting a two-day China–Central Asia summit in the historic city of Xian where the ancient Silk Road connected imperial China to the cultures to its west. Addressing the leaders of the Central Asian countries, Chinese president Xi Jinping made statements on the future of Beijing’s engagement with the neighboring region through investment plans, freer trade terms, science and technology exchange, boosted tourism and agriculture, and security cooperation.

On the last point, Xi turned his attention to the United States. He minced no words saying, “We should act on the Global Security Initiative, and stand firm against external attempts to interfere in domestic affairs of regional countries or instigate color revolutions.” With this statement, Xi called out the US and warned against the type of meddling that Washington has discreetly carried out in recent decades.
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Pledging that China would not interfere in other countries’ internal affairs and respecting national sovereignty have been key differences in China’s approach to international cooperation and development compared to Western countries and their organizations. Now it appears that Beijing may go a step further and work together with its allies to collectively safeguard domestic matters from foreign influences like those US government-funded NGOs.

This wouldn’t be the first time that the Chinese leader explicitly spoke out against color revolutions. At the latest Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan—coincidentally, another key node on the Silk Road—Xi warned leaders of Central Asia, Russia, India, Pakistan, and Iran that “it is important not to allow attempts by external forces to provoke a color revolution,” and that the member states should “jointly oppose interference in the affairs of other countries under any pretext.”
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Yellen visits China in person to try and improve relations. Meanwhile...

Beijing will impose export controls on two rare elements essential for manufacturing semiconductors, in apparent retaliation after the United States and Europe restricted chip exports to China.

Gallium and germanium will be subject to export controls starting August 1 “to protect national security and interests,” China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement Monday.

Exporters of these raw materials will need to apply for “special permission from the state” to ship them out the country, the statement said.
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