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With the debt ceiling uncertainty looming over the U.S., International Monetary Fund (IMF) managing director Kristalina Georgieva warned that a default in the U.S. would increase rates and harm American consumers.
"It will be very damaging for U.S. consumers if the U.S. defaults, that would push interest rates up," Georgieva said during an interview with CBS's 60 Minutes. "And if people don't like inflation today, they're not going to like at all what may happen tomorrow."
The alarm comes after the Treasury Department's message last month that the U.S. was bumping up against the current borrowing limit of $31.4 trillion. And if the debt ceiling is not raised, the federal government could run out of money to pay all its bills by June.
The Treasury Department already began some extraordinary measures to keep paying the government's bills in January, including suspending investments for selected government accounts.
On Monday, Yellen once again called on Congress to raise the U.S. debt limit, stating that failure to do so would trigger "an economic and financial catastrophe."
"While sometimes we've gone up to the wire, it's something that Congress has always recognized as their responsibility and needs to do again," Yellen told ABC's Good Morning America program.
In an attempt to resolve the issue, Republican U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Joe Biden met last week. But the standoff continued as the two agreed to meet again.
Congressional Republicans signaled that they would like federal spending cuts in exchange for raising the limit.
However, a member of the White House's Council of Economic Advisers, Jared Bernstein, noted over the weekend that negotiations over raising the U.S. debt ceiling are an "absolute nonstarter" for President Joe Biden. He added that Biden would be willing to discuss spending with Republicans.
"The negotiation over the debt ceiling, over default, is an absolute nonstarter for this president," Bernstein told Fox News. "There is a separate set of discussions and negotiations over fiscal policy."
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that no one should assume the U.S. central bank can protect the economy from default.
"No one should assume that the Fed can protect the economy from the consequences of failing to act in a timely manner," Powell said at a press conference after the Fed's latest policy meeting Wednesday. "There's only one way forward here, and that is for Congress to raise the debt ceiling so that the United States government can pay all of its obligations when due."
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In an interview with CNN, Brian Moynihan, CEO of the second largest bank in the U.S., said that a default is an uncomfortable possibility.
"You hope it doesn't happen, but hope is not a strategy – so you prepare for it," he said in the interview.
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Many analysts have noted that the growing risk of the U.S. government defaulting on its debt obligations will support gold's safe-haven appeal. ...
78 times in the past 63 years, which averages out to once every 9.7 Months.Wrangling over the US's debt ceiling seem like fairly common occurrences in recent history.
Has it really been that frequent? My memory isn't what it used to be...78 times in the past 63 years, which averages out to once every 9.7 Months.
I cannot personally attest to it, but that is what I've read.Has it really been that frequent? My memory isn't what it used to be...
Yes, the only times it hit the news cycle in a big way is when there are divisions and talk turns to that of potential default.I suspect the issue with my memory is that a lot of those instances were handled almost automatically - there wasn't any division or debate about it.
Well, spending is in fact the problem. If you don't over spend first, default will never enter the equation.Oh, and the time that tea party Republicans threatened to send the U.S. into debt default if Congress didn’t slash spending.
Yet everything that needed to get done, somehow still got done.These crises had tangible economic consequences, including the furloughing of 800,000 federal workers
By 2033, government will spend as much on Social Security as it does on military and all other discretionary spending combined. The 2023 federal deficit is projected to be $1.4 trillion, according to new estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). That means the federal government is expected to spend $1.4 trillion more than it takes in from taxes this year. And it's going to get worse: Between 2024 and 2033, this gap will average $2 trillion per year.
All told, the U.S. can expect to add almost $19 trillion in new debt over the decade.
"To put those numbers in context, the total amount of debt held by the public will equal the total annual output of the U.S. economy in 2024, rising to 118 percent of the economy by 2033," notes The New York Times. "The updated projections could supercharge a partisan debate between President Biden and Republicans over taxes, spending and the nation's debt limit."
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Even if it's half that, who is gonna buy the amount of debt needed to support that level of gov spending?U.S. will add $18.8 trillion in new debt by 2033
By 2033, the federal government will spend as much on Social Security as it does on military and all other discretionary spending combined.reason.com
CBO estimates are not accurate forecasts. But they are used for political arguments nonetheless.
... As I show here, CBO projections more than two years into the future in the domain it perhaps studies most -- federal deficits -- are little better than random guesses.
Look at the chart below. It shows the deterioration of CBO predictive accuracy when it comes to the federal budget deficit. The circular markers show how accurate these predictions have been since 2009 in forecasting how large the federal budget deficit would be. As one can see, although CBO estimates are very good for the same year in which they are made, accuracy deteriorates rapidly. By year 3, CBO projections have actually been no better than luck.
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House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will make his case that failing to strike a deal and lift the debt ceiling could upend global markets from the most high-profile market of all: The New York Stock Exchange.
It's an unusual setting for a political speech, but McCarthy's visit Monday will echo former President Ronald Reagan's visit to the floor in 1985, his first of two as president.
As Congress returns to from a two-week recess to a summery capital where the Treasury Department's mid-summer debt ceiling deadline feels tangibly closer, McCarthy finds himself in an increasingly difficult position.
President Joe Biden has not budged in three months on his refusal to negotiate over the debt limit, and has so far dismissed Republican efforts to tie a debt ceiling vote to a simultaneous deal on budget negotiations.
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U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the U.S. could run out of money to pay its bills by June 1 if Congress fails to raise or suspend the debt ceiling. This is earlier than previously thought.
"After reviewing recent federal tax receipts, our best estimate is that we will be unable to continue to satisfy all of the government's obligations by early June, and potentially as early as June 1, if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt limit before that time," Yellen wrote in a letter to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
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They "care" about different things.Both the Dems and Pubs care
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It’s past time for the White House to consider their unilateral options for avoiding economic disaster more seriously.
Perhaps the most prominent proposal to sideline Congress calls for the Treasury to mint a trillion dollar platinum coin and deposit it with the Federal Reserve, ensuring the government has plenty of money to pay its bills. So far, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has rejected the idea, warning that the Fed might not accept the coin and that, in her view, the central bank is not legally obligated to accept it.
There are other ideas floating around, but the one thing they all have in common is that they rely on the Federal Reserve’s cooperation and its willingness to continue acting as the government’s “fiscal agent” — essentially its banker, a role established by the Fed’s statute.
Under one scenario, for instance, if the Treasury Department decided to switch to issuing low face value, high coupon bonds, the Federal Reserve would have to facilitate the creation of such bonds in their book entry system, facilitate their sale and make periodic interest payments on Treasury’s behalf. Alternatively, if the Biden administration decided to declare the debt ceiling unconstitutional, or made other similar maneuvers, the Fed would again have to facilitate auctions of securities and defer to Treasury legal interpretation. In this sense, the platinum coin option is the most straightforward one since it draws on the Federal Reserve’s most basic “fiscal agent” responsibilities — accepting deposits.
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The problem with that, is that masses are also divided as to what should be done.Yellen et al are trying to wake the masses up on the issue so that pressure might build and someone caves.
That's just evidence of their astonishing level of monetary ignorance.Politico op-ed argues for monetary insanity:
That's just evidence of their astonishing level of monetary ignorance.
Anyone espousing the trillion dollar coin thing needs to go back to kindergarten where they belong.
I didn't click it. As soon as I saw in the 'Bugs excerpt from it that a trillion dollar coin was mentioned, I knew it was bs.It's a freaking Politico poll. not even worth a click.
I’m not sure why interest rates would necessarily rise. Recall the near-universal predictions that the world would come to an end when S&P threatened to, and finally did, downgrade the US rating. Your humble blogger was virtually alone in saying it would prove to be a nothingburger, market-wise, which proved to be correct.Under the theory, the government would be required by the 14th Amendment to continue issuing new debt to pay bondholders, Social Security recipients, government employees and others, even if Congress fails to lift the limit before the so-called X-date….
Some legal scholars contend that language overrides the statutory borrowing limit, which currently caps federal debt at $31.4 trillion and requires congressional approval to raise or lift….
It is unclear whether President Biden would support such a move, which would have serious ramifications for the economy and almost undoubtedly elicit legal challenges from Republicans. Continuing to issue debt in that situation would avoid an immediate disruption in consumer demand by maintaining government payments, but borrowing costs are likely to soar, at least temporarily.
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On Capitol Hill, debt ceiling negotiators prepared to narrow their focus to a smaller group of key issues that were ripe for compromise, an encouraging development with just nine days left before the U.S. faced the serious risk of a potentially catastrophic national debt default.
"We're getting closer," McCarthy told reporters late Monday, adding that the "circle" of issues was becoming "smaller, smaller, smaller."
The issues still on the table Tuesday included reforms to energy permitting, new work requirements for some forms of federal aid and the redistribution of unused Covid-19 emergency funds.
Also on the table are "health savings," CNBC reported Monday, which could include reforms to how much the government pays health-care companies under several major federal health insurance plans.
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With its CDS trading like an emerging market, it is likely no surprise that Fitch Ratings has placed the United States' 'AAA' Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) on Rating Watch Negative.
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