You should probably READ THIS, especially if you're still working

[Vichris]

Something Big Is Happening

A personal note for non-tech friends and family on what AI is starting to change.

shumer.dev

 

[Viking]

 

[KnowWhy]

“AI will eliminate 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs “ in the next few years. Those are all the fluff anyway.

Maybe that is why Trump is pushing for manufacturing to return.

Right now, AI sucks. It is the same ineccesary fluff. It is learning from people who think they know stuff. It reads something on the internet and “thinks” it is true. It is artificial.

 

[searcher]

Author of viral 'Something big is coming' essay says AI helped him write it — and that proves his point​

• Matt Shumer said it's "kind of the point" that he used AI to help write his viral essay about AI.
• The essay has been viewed over 60 million times on X alone.
• Shumer told Business Insider that "people deserve to know" how close AI is to fundamentally changing society.

The author of the viral essay warning about impending AI disruption says he couldn't wait any longer to get the word out.

"Let's say there is just a 20% chance of it happening, which is maybe realistic, maybe underselling it," Matt Shumer, GP of Shumer Capital, said during an interview with Business Insider. "Even if there is a 20% chance of this happening, people deserve to know and have time to prepare."

The people in tech who previously warned about AI's impact were mostly speaking to others in the industry, he said. Shumer said he wanted something that spoke to his dad, a lawyer who is just a few years from retirement and is hopeful he can run out the clock on the potential massive change on the horizon.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/sma...proves-his-point/ar-AA1WbUoZ?ocid=socialshare

 

[Vichris]

“AI will eliminate 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs “ in the next few years. Those are all the fluff anyway.

Maybe that is why Trump is pushing for manufacturing to return.

Right now, AI sucks. It is the same ineccesary fluff. It is learning from people who think they know stuff. It reads something on the internet and “thinks” it is true. It is artificial.

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Not to be argumentative but if you read the article, the gist of what he's saying is AI..... did suck (past tense)......BUT, It no longer sucks. There is no longer much "unnecessary fluff", and its teaching and refining itself. THAT is the Big Thing that is happening. I'll just say this, I'm glad as hell that I'm retired.

BTW, even my wife admitted to me that Fed Govt is using AI in a big way.

It's a long article I'll admit but REALLY, you should read or reread it thoroughly

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[Bottom Feeder]

Rebuttal from the cheap seats —

About that big happining…

Marcus on AI

All morning people have been asking me about a blog post by Matt Shumer that has gone viral, with nearly 50 million views on X. It’s a masterpiece of hype, written in the style of the old direct marketing campaigns, with bold-faced call outs like “I know this is real because it happened to me first” and “I am no longer needed for the actual technical work of my job”. It’s chock full of singularity vibes.

Shumer’s blog post is weaponized hype that tells people want they want to hear, but stumbles on the facts, especially with respect to reliability. He gives no actual data to support this claim that the latest coding systems can write whole complex apps without making errors. Similarly, when he describes how AI’s are doing longer and longer tasks on METR’s famous task-time benchmark, he neglects to say the criterion on that benchmark is 50% correct, not 100%.

The bottom line is this: LLMs are certainly coding more, but it’s not clear that the code they are creating is secure or trustworthy. Shumer’s presentation is completely one-sided, omitting lots of concerns that have been widely expressed here and elsewhere.

Full article at site

 

[KnowWhy]

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Not to be argumentative but if you read the article, the gist of what he's saying is AI..... did suck (past tense)......BUT, It no longer sucks. There is no longer much "unnecessary fluff", and its teaching and refining itself. THAT is the Big Thing that is happening. I'll just say this, I'm glad as hell that I'm retired.

BTW, even my wife admitted to me that Fed Govt is using AI in a big way.

It's a long article I'll admit but REALLY, you should read or reread it thoroughly

.

Oh, i say that respectfully to all the memebers here. I value the discussion.

I had read most the the article. And, i had already been discussing AI most of the morning with various people. It is being pushed (sold) as the solution.

Again, most entry-level white collar work is fluff. Think government jobs, school admin, and such. Not all of it, but the bloat in those positions is sad. The article was long and wordy. Remember being graded on succinctness?

Our local school superintendent made national news Monday for using AI,in error. Our state education commissioner made national news a year ago for the same. It is embarrassing. And honestly, the whole department of education is un-necessary.

Computers and robotics are amazing. What they can do is amazing. Are they replacing humans roles in many things? Absolutely.
But:
The population of humans is still growing and no one needs to be starving or lacking fulfillment.

 

[Bottom Feeder]

I read the whole article, vic, it wasn't that long. (Only for those who need a video).

I've long had dark feelings about 'artificial' intelligence. (prolly since the Terminator movie in 1984) So I've been thinking for a long time on those robots taking over. And because I've been a science fiction fan since I was nine years old, reading every SF book they had in my small town library, I have read a number of stories of man vs machine. (Fred Saberhagen, Berserker series)

I keep looking for clues that seem like they are getting things under control but battlefield europe giving the drones autonomous capabilities for choosing targets ain't giving me much peace.