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Old 01-01-2012, 09:32 AM   #21
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The following report details changes from 12/31 @ ~9am to 1/1 @ ~9:30am:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - from 61 to 59.
  • 1 ozt gold bars - from 838 to 777. Big sellers were Credit Suisse (-13) and generic bars w/o assay (-23). No inventory gains this time.
  • 100 ozt silver bars - from 901 to 894. No big movements here, they sold a little bit of a few items.

Looks like very light activity on New Year's Eve as might be expected.
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Old 01-02-2012, 10:12 AM   #22
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The following report details changes from 1/1 @ ~9:30am to 1/2 @ ~10am:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - from 59 to 59 (no change).
  • 1 ozt gold bars - from 777 to 670. Big sellers were Pamp Suisse (-16), Credit Suisse (-25), Scotia Bank (-29) and generic bars w/o assay (-25 and sold out). No inventory gains this time.
  • 100 ozt silver bars - from 894 to 891.

Looks like 1ozt gold is the popular New Year's Day buy.

Tulving is sold out of 2011 Silver Eagles. I just noticed this - it may have happened a few days ago though.
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Old 01-03-2012, 08:05 AM   #23
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The following report details changes from 1/2 @ ~10am to 1/3 @ ~8am:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - from 59 to 59 (no change).
  • 1 ozt gold bars - from 670 to 995. Huge increases in Pamp Suisse (+168) and Credit Suisse (+181). Sold off a bit (-24) of most everything else.
  • 100 ozt silver bars - from 891 to 873.
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Old 01-03-2012, 01:17 PM   #24
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Keep your project going PMBug! I am still working on the PM premium widget (6 or 7 entries so far, not enough data to mean anything yet).

At some point, I will email you the Excel data and/or maybe a graph or two if I see anything interesting. And then YOU can figure out how to put it in here, LOL!
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Old 01-04-2012, 09:39 AM   #25
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Thanks DCRB. I enjoy playing with numbers.

The following report details changes from 1/3 @ ~8am to 1/4 @ ~9am:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - from 59 to 85. Looks like people are buying and selling again. Major changes were Perth Mint (+12), Pamp Suisse (+19) with some selling of Johnson Matthey (-2) and generic w/o assay (-3).
  • 1 ozt gold bars - from 995 to 1146. Another huge increases in Pamp Suisse (+158) and Perth Mint (+43). Sold off Credit Suisse (-34), Scotia Bank (-15) and a little bit of some other brands.
  • 100 ozt silver bars - from 873 to 748. Big sellers were apmex (-12), Johnson Matthey (-105) and Royal Canadian Mint (-10).

I just noticed that the remaining 453 Johnson Matthey 100ozt silver bars that are listed for sale have a note that they are expected to be available for shipping on Jan 13th. I guess they don't actually have those bars on hand yet. Same deal for the remaining 41 Apmex bars (expected available for shipping Jan 10). While I'm guessing they wouldn't list them for sale if they weren't sure the bars were forthcoming, I believe it means that Apmex really only has 254 of the 100ozt silver bars in stock (on hand) at this moment.
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Old 01-05-2012, 10:10 AM   #26
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The following report details changes from 1/4 @ ~9am to 1/5 @ ~10am:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - from 85 to 85. No changes in inventory, but they did raise the premium on the generic bars w/o assay by $2/ozt.
  • 1 ozt gold bars - from 1146 to 1161. Small overall change, but large volume changes in individual brands: Pamp Suisse (-61), Credit Suisse (-125), Sunshine Mint (+139), Perth Mint (-35), Argor-Heraeus (+100)
  • 100 ozt silver bars - from 748 to 854. Small reductions in some brands more than offset by increases in apmex (+121). Premiums on the Sunshine bars dropped $0.30/ozt (they were much higher than other bars and now are the least expensive option).

The increase in 100 ozt Apmex bars coincided with a change to the expected available for shipping date which is now Jan 24. If we only look at 100 ozt silver bars that they actually have physical possession of at this moment, the total is down to 241.
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Old 01-06-2012, 09:10 AM   #27
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The following report details changes from 1/5 @ ~10am to 1/6 @ ~9am:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - from 85 to 85. Sold one and gained one.
  • 1 ozt gold bars - from 1161 to 1230. Much more muted activity this perdiod. Large volume changes in individual brands: Pamp Suisse (-12), Credit Suisse (+86) and several brands down one or two bars
  • 100 ozt silver bars - from 854 to 852. Small reductions (from 1 to 4 bars each) in most brands indicate slowing activity. They added 1 RCM and 4 MTB bars which weren't previously listed (indicating customers sold them back IMO).

I'm guessing that when new bars are listed with an inventory of just 1-4 bars, it's likely these represent bars they acquired from customers who were selling back. It looks like they restock from manufacturers in much larger quantities (100 at a time).

Interesting to see some folks parting with their physical with the very tame rise in spot prices to the ~1620 and ~29.25 zones.

Tulving is now listing some 40% silver as available again. No change to the 300,000+ inventory number. 2011 ASEs aren't even listed any more.
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Old 01-07-2012, 10:40 AM   #28
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The following report details changes from 1/6 @ ~9am to 1/7 @ ~10am:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - from 85 to 87. Sold two and gained four.
  • 1 ozt gold bars - from 1230 to 1833. Huge increase in Pamp Suisse (+430), Credit Suisse (+184). Biggest seller was Perth Mint (-14).
  • 100 ozt silver bars - from 852 to 824. Pretty even selling across all brands.

If we only look at 100 ozt silver bars that they actually have physical possession of at this moment, the total is down to 235.
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Old 01-08-2012, 09:07 AM   #29
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The following report details changes from 1/7 @ ~10am to 1/8 @ ~9am:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - from 87 to 87. (no nchange).
  • 1 ozt gold bars - from 1833 to 1814.
  • 100 ozt silver bars - from 824 to 823.

Looks like very light buying yesterday. I guess everyone was watching football or something.
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Old 01-09-2012, 09:19 AM   #30
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The following report details changes from 1/8 @ ~9am to 1/9 @ ~9am:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - from 87 to 87. (no change).
  • 1 ozt gold bars - from 1814 to 1788.
  • 100 ozt silver bars - from 823 to 817.
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Old 01-10-2012, 11:21 AM   #31
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The following report details changes from 1/9 @ ~9am to 1/10 @ ~11am:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - from 87 to 82. They sold 5 generic bars (no assay).
  • 1 ozt gold bars - from 1788 to 1717.
  • 100 ozt silver bars - from 817 to 799. Strong sales across the board offset a bit by an increase to the Sunshine (+24) bars.
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Old 01-10-2012, 12:05 PM   #32
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Show us a graph or something sometime PMBug! That way we can see how this evolving, even if the amount of data is paltry. I very well understand that short term data may not tell us MUCH (that we can have confidence in), but it can tell us SOMETHING! I know that I am curious!

That's the spirit with which I am approaching looking at the Widget. After a few cycles of gold paper price running up and down, we might be able to learn something, beyond the obvious.

And both your inventory and my premium analyses MAY help us catch a sudden drop in physical PM supplies. Which of course would be the signal that the (an?) end is near...
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Old 01-10-2012, 01:41 PM   #33
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Anyone here who has the time is welcome to plot the data points I've posted (and get bonus points for correlating them with the avg spot price for the day).

I'm adding in my commentary when I notice something interesting in the data, but it's more stream of consciousness observation than data crunching analysis.
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Old 01-11-2012, 09:15 AM   #34
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The following report details changes from 1/10 @ ~11am to 1/11 @ ~9am:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - from 82 to 84. They sold 1 Pamp Suisse bar and added 3 Johnson Matthey Pressed bars.
  • 1 ozt gold bars - from 1717 to 1847. Added apmex (+5), generic with assay (+9) and Scotia Bank (+199) and sold a smattering of everything else besides Pamp Suisse (-72). They lowered the premium on Pamp Suisse to $39.99/ozt over spot (down $5/ozt from previous).
  • 100 ozt silver bars - from 799 to 906. Added "Englehard or Johnson Matthey" (+15), Royal Canadian Mint (+30) and "various" (+75). Sold a few bars of apmex, Johnson Matthey and Sunshine. Looks like they have 361 bars in actual "on hand" inventory now (bars for sale without delayed delivery dates).
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Old 01-12-2012, 10:41 AM   #35
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The following report details changes from 1/11 @ ~9am to 1/12 @ ~10:30am:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - from 84 to 71. Compared to past trading activity, this was a huge change. Perth Mint (-8) was the big seller, but others were sold too.
  • 1 ozt gold bars - from 1847 to 1858. Small net change, but there was a lot of activity. Added a new product - apmex bars with assay (+135). Big sellers were Pamp Suisse (-77) and Credit Suisse (-51).
  • 100 ozt silver bars - from 906 to 889. Looks like they have 348 bars in actual "on hand" inventory now (bars for sale without delayed delivery dates).
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Old 01-13-2012, 05:01 AM   #36
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Attached is a graph of PMBug's data. If anything, it looks like there is a slow trend of increasing inventory.

Attached Images
File Type: jpg 20120112 Apmex inventories.jpg (78.3 KB, 0 views)
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Last edited by Unobtanium; 01-13-2012 at 05:04 AM.
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Old 01-13-2012, 06:19 AM   #37
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It might be interesting to see the correlated graph of sales volume versus restocking (plotting all the gains versus all the losses day by day), but you would need to dive into the spreadsheet for that as I haven't posted all the minutiae here. I've updated the OP with the latest spreadsheet.
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Old 01-13-2012, 09:14 AM   #38
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The following report details changes from 1/12 @ ~10:30am to 1/13 @ ~9am:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - from 71 to 69.
  • 1 ozt gold bars - from 1858 to 1796. Pamp Suisse (-53) continues to be a big seller.
  • 100 ozt silver bars - from 889 to 859. Johnson Matthey apparently now in stock. They added a single bar to three different offerings that weren't there yesterday, so it looks like someone sold a few bars (back to apmex) since yesterday.

Tulving is sold out of opened monster boxes of Silver Eagles. They are listing sealed boxes though.
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Old 01-15-2012, 11:56 AM   #39
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The following report details changes from 1/13 @ ~9am to 1/15 @ ~noon:
  • 10 ozt gold bars - from 69 to 51. Sold out of Perth Mint (-16). I think this is the largest public buying volume I've seen within a ~48 hour window for 10ozt gold.
  • 1 ozt gold bars - from 1796 to 1565. Pamp Suisse (-134) continues to be the biggest big seller. Again, this ~48 hour window is showing strong buying demand from the public.
  • 100 ozt silver bars - from 859 to 851. They added 25 bars of "Englehard or Johnson Matthey", offsetting sales of apmex (-11), Sunshine (-11) and a bit of most everything else.
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Old 01-16-2012, 10:06 AM   #40
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Originally Posted by PMBug View Post:
It might be interesting to see the correlated graph of sales volume versus restocking (plotting all the gains versus all the losses day by day), but you would need to dive into the spreadsheet for that as I haven't posted all the minutiae here. I've updated the OP with the latest spreadsheet.
PMBug,
How does this look (for 10 oz gold only):

NOTE: Image removed for more updated images later in this thread.

Last edited by Unobtanium; 01-16-2012 at 12:30 PM. Reason: Update in later post in this thread.
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