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Old 10-25-2018, 09:38 AM   #481
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Quote :
Central banks are set to increase their purchases of gold in 2018 for the first time in five years as eastern European and Asian countries seek to diversify their reserves.

Net purchases of gold by central banks are forecast to rise to 450 metric tons this year, up from 375 tons in 2017, according to consultancy Metals Focus Ltd. That will be the first increase since 2013, when banks boosted their holdings by 646 tons, the most for several decades.

With just over two months of the year left, it’s more likely that the projection will be raised than lowered because central banks generally seem interested in purchases, according to Junlu Liang, a senior analyst at London-based Metals Focus.
...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ime-since-2013
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Old 10-25-2018, 01:16 PM   #482
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Originally Posted by PMBug View Post:

What can a "coalition of the willing" actually do though?

How about stop worrying and work with other non dollar currencies to stay broadly in lockstep and simply default on the US$ loans ?
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Old 10-28-2018, 09:40 PM   #483
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I found this twitter discussion interesting:
Originally Posted by David Rosenberg :
Go ahead, blame Powell. Don't tell anyone that foreign buying of Treasury debt has been cut in half this year and keep it a secret that the dollar share of world FX reserves has shrunk to a 5-year low of 62.5%. ...
More: https://mobile.twitter.com/EconguyRo...71603808182272
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Old 11-02-2018, 09:09 AM   #484
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...
For the euro to decisively overtake the dollar as a reserve currency, the risk of the bloc breaking up needs to be “completely eliminated” and that’s not the case yet, said Ryan Myerberg, a money manager at Janus Henderson Investors.

Italian budget issues are set to continue to preoccupy investors into 2019, even after the country survived a brace of credit-rating reviews largely unscathed. The coalition continues to push for a higher deficit than allowed under European rules.

“To me the fundamental issue going into 2019 is whether Italy can resolve its budget issues with the European Commission,” Van Luu, head of currency and fixed-income research at Russell Investments Ltd., said. “It will be interesting to see whether populist or euro-skeptic parties can gain significantly in elections, if that was the case it could undermine the case for the euro.”
...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...political-risk

I looked around this morning, but I'm not seeing any new info/news about the proposed EU "special purpose vehicle" alternative to SWIFT. I did find an article that talks about the SWIFT system that mentioned this:

Quote :
...
Meanwhile, the European Union is moving ahead with an alternative "special purpose vehicle" to facilitate transactions with Iran for the bloc's businesses. The EU announced that it would be "symbolically" ready when US oil sanctions take effect on November 4, but its system will not be operational until next year.
...
https://www.dw.com/en/swift-could-sl...ons/a-46119092
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Old 11-02-2018, 12:01 PM   #485
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Meanwhile, the European Union is moving ahead with an alternative "special purpose vehicle" to facilitate transactions with Iran for the bloc's businesses. The EU announced that it would be "symbolically" ready when US oil sanctions take effect on November 4, but its system will not be operational until next year.
yeah ?

could be a nice little earner for Italy

https://www.ft.com/content/0cb5534c-...4-38d397e6661c

Quote :

The EU has struggled to find a member state to host a new financial channel to shield trade with Iran from looming US sanctions, diplomats said, in the latest hurdle to the bloc’s efforts to save a landmark nuclear deal with Tehran.

The Europeans want to set up a “special purpose vehicle” to process Iran’s import and export payments once Washington clamps down on the country’s central bank and oil industry on November 5. The US action is part of an economic squeeze on Tehran after President Donald Trump pulled out of the 2015 international atomic accord in May.

EU countries led by France, Germany and the UK — signatories to the nuclear deal — want to enable non-US trade with Iran to continue in defiance of Washington.
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Old 11-03-2018, 08:39 AM   #486
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Wouldn't that be rich? But Italy is already tbtf with respect to EU membership. I suspect that if it does happen, it will be with a small state that doesn't really have a lot of exposure to US markets and wants to secure their place in the eu.
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Old 11-07-2018, 07:57 AM   #487
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Quote :
...
On Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that as part of the reimposed sanctions, eight important oil importers — China, India, South Korea, Turkey, Italy, Greece, Japan and Taiwan — would receive 180-day exceptions, or waivers, letting them buy Iranian oil as long as they show reductions in the amounts.

More than 20 countries already have cut their imports of Iranian oil, shrinking Iran’s exports by about one million barrels a day, Mr. Pompeo said.

American officials would need great leverage to induce China and India, Iran’s biggest customers, to cut off all their imports; the two nations have enormous energy needs. Chinese leaders are incensed over the intensifying trade war begun by Mr. Trump, and they are wary about the diplomacy Mr. Trump is conducting with North Korea over that country’s nuclear program.

Given all that, experts say, it is unlikely that China and India will end all imports of Iranian oil — even after the 180-day waivers expire.

“I think the U.S. made the calculation that market stability and geopolitical relationships superseded interests in trying to bring down Iranian exports,” said Henry Rome, an Iran analyst at the Eurasia Group, a Washington-based political risk consultancy.
...
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/w...explained.html

Quote :
The top U.S. diplomat has granted an exception to certain U.S. sanctions that will allow the India-led development of a port in Iran as part of a new transportation corridor designed to boost Afghanistan’s economy, a State Department spokesman said on Tuesday.

The exception granted by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to U.S. sanctions reimposed on Iran on Monday also will permit the construction of a railway line from Chabahar port to Afghanistan, and for shipments to the war-torn country of non-sanctionable goods, like food and medicines, the spokesman said.

In addition, Afghanistan will be allowed to continue importing Iranian petroleum products, the spokesman said.

“These activities are vital for the ongoing support of Afghanistan’s growth and humanitarian relief,” the spokesman said in a statement emailed to Reuters.
...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-i...-idUSKCN1NB2HW

Quote :
...
Iran analysts, however, said the announcement on waivers points to US President Donald Trump's inability to rally the international community and reach a consensus against Tehran.

"The Trump administration is waking up to the fact that its Iran policy has strained ties with a wide range of countries," Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder of the Iranian economy website Bourse Bazaar, told Al Jazeera.

"Showing flexibility on oil imports may be a way for the US to seek more cooperation on sanctions in other areas."

In Tehran, the decision on waivers is seen as "a victory", as it was able to sustain its energy exports "after months of US threats that oil sales would be pushed down to zero".
...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/...185330547.html

Adding an exception for China is understandable. We don't really have the leverage to bind them to our will. And they aren't going to risk an internal revolution to appease the USA's foreign policy goals.

Adding an exception for India was something I was expecting to see. The Chabahar port issue was likely a line in the sand point of no return that India was not willing to concede. I haven't posted much about it, but I've been reading about it for a while now.

What's really interesting to me are the exceptions for Turkey, Greece and Italy. Is this an effort to undermine the impetus for the EU's "special purpose vehicle"? It's interesting that the exceptions have a 180 day expiration period. We'll see if that sticks or, much like Congress' "spending limit", just gets extended whenever the limit is reached.
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Old 11-09-2018, 07:06 AM   #488
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Quote :
France aims to lead the European Union (EU) efforts in defying U.S. sanctions on Iran, by supporting the creation of a payment mechanism to keep trade with Iran and making the euro more powerful, France’s Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said in an interview with the Financial Times.
...
As the U.S. sanctions on Iran snapped back on Monday, the SPV hasn’t been operational and reports have had it that the undertaking is very complicated and politically sensitive. The bloc is also said to be struggling with the set-up, because no EU member is willing to host it for fear of angering the United States, the Financial Times reported recently, citing EU diplomats.

On Monday, the Belgium-based international financial messaging system SWIFT said that it would comply with the U.S. sanctions on Iran and would cut off sanctioned Iranian banks from its network. This was a blow to the EU’s attempts to defy the U.S. sanctions.

The decision by SWIFT highlights the need for an SPV, France’s Le Maire told FT, but he refused to name countries that could host such a special vehicle. Yet, there have been expressions of interest, he told FT.
...
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...e-us-sanctions
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Old 11-09-2018, 01:32 PM   #489
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This will go nowhere, but it's interesting to note for posterity.

Quote :
Venezuela will present its state-backed cryptocurrency Petro as a unit of account for crude oil trading to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 2019, the country’s oil company PDVSA reports on its Twitter Nov. 7.

The PDVSA has cited its president Manuel Quevedo, who also holds the position of Venezuela’s Minister of Oil and Mining, speaking about the future presentation:
Quote :
"We will be presenting Petro to OPEC in 2019 as the main digital currency backed by oil."
According to the PDVSA, Quevedo also added that Petro will be offered as a unit of account for global crude oil trading, noting that all Venezuelan oil will be traded for Petro.
...
https://cointelegraph.com/news/venez...ccount-for-oil
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Old 11-14-2018, 09:12 AM   #490
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Quote :
Russian energy majors are putting pressure on Western oil buyers to use euros instead of dollars for payments and introducing penalty clauses in contracts as Moscow seeks protection against possible new U.S. sanctions.

Seven industry sources told Reuters that Western oil majors and trading houses have clashed with Russia’s third and fourth biggest producers, Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, over 2019 oil sales contract terms during unusually tough annual renegotiation in recent weeks.

The development mirrors a similar stand-off between Western buyers and Russia’s top oil producer, Rosneft (ROSN.MM).

Earlier this week, trading sources told Reuters that Rosneft wants Western oil buyers to pay penalties from 2019 if they fail to pay for supplies in the event that new U.S. sanctions disrupt sales.

Now sources have told Reuters that Surgutneftegaz and Gazprom Neft have also clashed with their buyers over penalties and the use of euros and other currencies to replace the dollar in contracts.

“It is part of the same trend - the Russian oil industry is working on mitigating new sanctions risks. The buyers in turn argue they cannot carry those risks so we are trying to find compromises,” said one source with a Western buyer involved in negotiations, asking not to be named as the talks are confidential.
...
Several Western buyers have managed to agreed compromises with Surgutneftegaz and Gazprom Neft, but others are still in tough talks with the producers, the sources said.

All Surgutneftegaz’s contracts are bespoke and are negotiated individually in the Siberian town of Surgut by the firm’s management and visiting Western trading bosses.

The sources declined to name companies that have already reached compromise deals.

In one such compromise, a large European buyer agreed to the use of euros in payments in exchange for Surgutneftegaz dropping its demand for penalties from buyers who fail to pay for cargoes.
...
More: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1NE0FL
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Old 12-21-2018, 07:29 AM   #491
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Iran sanctions still loom large in potentially effecting a fundamental development in the petrodollar system:
Quote :
Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of a weekly cabinet session in Tehran on Wednesday, Zarif said he had been informed during last week’s trips to Brussels and Geneva that Europe has made the final arrangements for the SPV and the financial mechanism will be established in the near future.
...
https://iranian.com/2018/12/05/speci...-soon-iran-eu/

That's from two weeks ago. Maybe just hot air. I can't find any other recent reporting indicating any real movement on the development.

Quote :
Former Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Kamal Kharrazi underlined the need for the European Union to implement its promise to establish the Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) to carry out financial transactions with Iran.

"Everyone hopes that the mechanism will be implemented and Europe has promised this too; of course, Europe is expected to take practical steps," Kharrazi told FNA on Monday.

He added that based on Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif's talks with the European states, the latter has promised to implement the SPV by the yearend.

European Union Foreign Policy Chief Federica Mogherini announced last Monday that the EU would establish a mechanism to facilitate non-dollar transactions with Iran in the near future in a bid to bypass the sanctions imposed by the United States against Tehran.

"I will expect this instrument to be established in the coming weeks before the end of the year as a way to protect and promote legitimate business," Mogherini told reporters in Brussels.

Mogherini, however, declined to reveal more details on the financial mechanism.
...
http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13970926000439

Quote :
Following Wednesday's unexpected and dramatic full and "immediate" withdrawal of all US forces from Syria, Turkey has announced it will not play ball on Iran sanctions. According to a translation of the Turkish president's words on Thursday during a previously planned summit with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in Ankara, journalist Abdullah Bozkurt reports, "Turkish president Erdogan says Turkey won't support US sanctions on Iran which he claims puts regional security and stability at risk, vows to take all measures to minimize impact of sanctions on trade between the two countries, pledges support to Iran in difficult times."
...
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...sanctions-iran
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Old 12-31-2018, 09:36 AM   #492
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Remember post #483 from two months ago? ...

Quote :
The U.S. dollar’s share of currency reserves reported to the International Monetary Fund fell in the third quarter to a near five-year low, while the euro’s share of reserves grew to its largest in almost four years, data released on Friday showed.
...
https://in.reuters.com/article/forex...-idINKCN1OR1DO
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Old 01-09-2019, 07:30 AM   #493
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Quote :
India has begun paying Iran for oil in rupees, a senior bank official said on Tuesday, the first such payments since the United States imposed new sanctions against Tehran in November.
...
Iran is devising payment mechanisms including barter with trading partners like India, China and Russia following a delay in the setting up of a European Union-led special purpose vehicle to facilitate trade with Tehran, its foreign minister Javad Zarif said earlier on Tuesday.
...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-i...-idUSKCN1P21XF
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Old 01-10-2019, 07:26 AM   #494
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Quote :
Iranian President's Chief of Staff Mahmoud Vaezi said on Wednesday that the European countries have apologized to Tehran for their inability to launch the Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) in pursuit of facilitated banking transactions so far, adding that they are still working on the mechanism.

"The Europeans have apologized to us and said that we have distributed all our plans (among the European states so that the SPV would be implemented in due time), but the US pressures have delayed them," Vaezi told reporters in Tehran on Wednesday after a cabinet meeting.

He said the Europeans have assured Tehran that they are still pursuing implementation of the SPV, and reminded that EU Foreign Policy Chief Federica Mogherini had earlier promised that the mechanism would be launched before 2019.

In relevant remarks on Tuesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif underlined continued cooperation with the European states to launch the SPV, but meantime, said his country would not wait for the EU and will further expand ties with its other partners.

"The Europeans have made efforts but they could not progress to the extent that we expected. We will cooperate with Europe on the SPV but will not wait for them and will cooperate with out traditional partners, including India, China and Russia, in line with the interests of the Iranian people," Zarif told reporters on the sidelines of his meeting with Indian Minister for Road Transport and Highways Nitin Gadkari in New Delhi.
...
http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13971019000738

The US has successfully cockblocked the SPV for now.
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Old 01-10-2019, 05:00 PM   #495
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Hmmm

SPV - all countries launch it at the same time so uncle sam can't pick on one small euro country and apply sanctions ?

or has pressure from the US already killed the idea ?
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Old 01-11-2019, 06:58 AM   #496
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It would appear that US pressure is currently surpressing it's genesis. It would be wild if they developed some sort of distributed solution that wasn't tied to one specific location (country). But these people tend to think in centralized (authoritarian) models, so I doubt that's really even been considered.
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Old 01-29-2019, 07:46 AM   #497
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Quote :
The European Union is on the verge of launching an alternative channel to send money to Iran that would sidestep U.S. sanctions against the Islamic republic, Germany's foreign minister said Monday.
...
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas told reporters in Brussels that "as far as the special purpose vehicle is concerned: it will be registered, it has not yet been registered, but I would say that the implementation of our plan is imminent."

Maas said the EU's aim is to ensure that "business not sanctioned by the U.S. can be upheld, and there is a suitable instrument for international payments." He said that Germany has been working notably with Britain and France but also other EU partners in recent months to set it up, without providing details.
...
https://amp.miamiherald.com/news/bus...225178180.html

Hot air or stone cold reality? Time will tell.
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Old 01-31-2019, 07:27 AM   #498
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Looks like stone cold reality...

Quote :
Germany, France and Britain have officially set up a European mechanism to facilitate non-dollar trade with Iran and circumvent U.S. sanctions, two diplomats said on Thursday.

The EU has been preparing the system, in effect a clearing house that avoids monetary transfers in dollars between the EU and Iran for months although it is unlikely to become operational for several months due to technical details.

German broadcaster NDR reported that the European Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) would be named INSTEX-Instrument In Support Of Trade Exchanges.
...
The entity is not likely to revive trade with Iran to begin with as its focus will primarily be food, medicine and humanitarian, with transactions small. It will not be used for oil-related transactions that have been hit hard by U.S. sanctions.
...
France and Germany had taken joint responsibility for the SPV. A German banker would head up the vehicle, which would be based in France. France, Britain and Germany will be shareholders and they hope other states will join.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/31/germ...ml?forYou=true

So, it won't be used for trading oil... for now...
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Old 01-31-2019, 11:11 AM   #499
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France and Germany had taken joint responsibility for the SPV. A German banker would head up the vehicle, which would be based in France. France, Britain and Germany will be shareholders and they hope other states will join.
would be ........... will be........... they hope others will join ........

stone cold reality ?
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Old 02-04-2019, 07:28 AM   #500
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Quote :
A surge in gold purchases by central banks to the highest since 1967 helped push global demand for the metal up 4 percent last year, the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Thursday.

The world consumed 4,345.1 tonnes of gold in 2018, up from 4,159.9 tonnes in 2017, the WGC said in its latest quarterly demand trends report.

Driving the increase were central banks which bought 651.5 tonnes - 74 percent more than in 2017 and the second highest annual total on record - as countries including China and Poland joined Russia, Turkey and Kazakhstan in adding to their reserves, the WGC said.
...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g...-idUSKCN1PP0EN

You would think with all that buying, the gold price might have risen significantly in 2018...
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