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Old 01-09-2012, 08:30 PM   #41
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http://www.blacklistednews.com/8_tr....0/0/0/Y/M.html paper and electrons can be expanded to gigantic proportions. Gold however cannot be printed or multiplied with electronic computer entries. The ratio of paper assets, currrently being inflated and defaulted to gold is ridiculously high. almost 100:1

Guess what, the paper will not maintain value. duh! it never does over the long term.
the only reason i accumulate silver and gold is for retirement, planned about 30 years from now. i dont believe any other asset will maintain value as well as silver and gold over the next 30 years. and definitely none of the paper assets.
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Old 01-17-2012, 09:59 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by DoChenRollingBearing View Post:
Well here is my take on FOFOA, gold standard, etc.

His prediction (and he says it is almost inevitable) is that the 100x paper gold claims on each physical ounce (and maybe other things could happen too) will at some point "break" paper gold, which means that "paper gold" may very well go WAY down (as paper gold becomes worth less or even "worthless"), while physical gold goes into hiding... Until the markets settle down, and we will find that physical gold will only be available at a price of $55,000 (FOFOA even gives a 2 standard deviation range: $25,000 - $85,000).

At $25,000, that would make the FED's gold (currently valued at $11 bn @ $42.22 / oz) worth a cool $595 bn. Also, if Ft. Knox (etc. storage of US gold) has the 8000 tons, that number works out to a similar $440 bn.

Double those numbers if we go to 55k.

FOFOA believes that hyperinflation is ALMOST inevitable as well.

He DOES NOT back a gold standard! Too inflexible, and it would likely get abused anyway (fractional bullion banking).

It is impossible for me to summarize his logic, it is too big a topic, his Freegold idea. You will have to tackle the subject on its own at his blog:

fofoa.blogspot.com

---

Also, note how Greece (and Italy, or even the USA) have very mum about using their gold to pay down their debts. Why? Because they do not feel that current price is actually the true value of their gold!

In fact, I have not seen EVEN ONE .gov entity anywhere offer to settle their debts in gold! That means something... I think that means that gold will go WAY UP!
i find this analysis bovine. lets see, at 42.22 bucks the 261 mio ozs are worth indeed 11.01942 billion. at 25,000 bucks they are worth 6.525 trillion. ok, ok, anyone can get the math wrong by an order of magnitude.
but wait, 100x more paper gold than physical? pifles. this is bovine excrement. perhaps smoking some nasty stuff. certainly not on this planet.

then he takes complete leave of any semblance of reality. "gold only available at 55,000" hehehehe. this guy is delusional. come on. get real.
at that price jewellery is turned to bullion faster than the speed of light and the miners are more than happy to sell at a fraction of that price.
on his ideas of free gold i wouldnt speculate, because if they are as stupid as his analyses of gold prices and availability, then its not worth the time.
at any rate, a gold standard, pure and hybrid is stupid the the nth degree, a barbarous relic unworthy of human beings in the 21th century AD. gold is a great investment though, but would be very detrimental if used as standard of value.

anyone who tells you nonsense that there are 100x or 1000x or even 10x more paper gold or silve ounces than physical is an idiot, a fool or a liar.
such is just precious metal porn, not a solid analysis based on facts.
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Old 01-17-2012, 10:40 PM   #43
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there are about 5.46 billion ounces of gold above ground. 100:1 paper to physical would imply there are 546 billion paper gold ounces floating around. there are also over 17 billion silver ounces above ground a 100:1 ratio would imply 1.7 trillion paper silver ounces. this is ridiculous. a claim of fools and morons. there isnt that much money in the world.

as a silver and gold bug i am all for the physical stacking and i welcome a great price rise for both metals. but staying the reality is also important. peddling precious metal porn and disinformation is disgusting and should revolt anyone with a love for truth.
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Old 01-18-2012, 04:30 AM   #44
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So taking from what you've said, Silver_Bug, you don't believe the folks at GATA either? They've been saying what FOFOA is pretty much echoing, for over 8 years or so, I think. Just curious about how much credibility you give any of the Rehypothecation claims by trading insiders in the gold market.
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Old 01-18-2012, 06:22 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by Silver_Bug View Post:
there are about 5.46 billion ounces of gold above ground. 100:1 paper to physical would imply there are 546 billion paper gold ounces floating around. there are also over 17 billion silver ounces above ground ...
Where do you get your figures from?
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Old 01-18-2012, 06:55 AM   #46
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One thing some of these guys never focus on is the supply/demand equation. i think its helpful to look at money supply, national debts, credit mkt debt to get an idea of where gold can go but you also can't forget the supply picture. at the end of the day these are traded commodities. if prices go up dramatically that could hurt industrial demand, jewelry, and people will come up with more scrap metal, mine more etc. just a thought.

does this FOFOA ever address the supply picture? seems to me you can't look at things in a vacuum.
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Old 01-18-2012, 07:42 AM   #47
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Quote :
Dow Jones news is carrying a report this morning from GFMS (formerly Gold Fields Mineral Services) detailing the amount of gold purchased last year by the world's Central Banks. It was indeed a formidable number.

The net purchases of the yellow metal came in near 430 tons, a more than 5-fold increase on the previous year. It was also the highest level recorded since 1964.
...
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com...fftake-of.html
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Old 01-18-2012, 08:37 AM   #48
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Russia cuts it's treasury holdings in half during the last year.
Anyone wonder what they did with all these dollars?
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Old 01-18-2012, 08:45 AM   #49
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Vodka. Lots and lots of vodka.

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Old 01-18-2012, 12:39 PM   #50
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We know they added to their gold reserves.
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Old 01-20-2012, 05:13 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by escobar View Post:
One thing some of these guys never focus on is the supply/demand equation (...) if prices go up dramatically that could hurt industrial demand, jewelry, and people will come up with more scrap metal, mine more etc. just a thought.
I doubt it will happened. If prices start to rise dramatically, in an increasingly volatile and unstable environment, small time investors, regular Joe's with jewelry, etc. (=potential scrap metal suppliers) will hold dearly onto their only tangible & sound stores of wealth (=silver cutlery, some gold jewelry etc.). They will only trade as much as they need/have to, and hoard as much as they can.

Industrial demand is a non-issue for the price RISE part of things - it will be simply pass onto consumers, the amounts used in a single product are tiny (that is why it is not economical to recycle most of them, and they end up on the landfills). Although if the economy collapses (so people stop buying smartphones, iPads, solar panels et all), that might impact the prices on the FALL side (significantly less demand for Ag from industry = significantly more supply for investment purposes). But in this case I think we will be looking at a serious case of SHTF, with markets collapsing around us and sending us back a couple of centuries, and in this case, "thou holding the gold"... you know. You'll be OK if you are prepared to protect it.

As for the "mining more" argument. I just don't think you can balance huge swings in investment demand (all that "monopoly money", trashing frantically all over the place, from port to starboard side, trying to find some "safe" place to be, along with the want to jump onto "the next big thing") by ANY physically manufactured commodity. Monopoly money is not constrained by the mundane realities, that all other branches of real, tangible, productive economy are - investment lenghts/timelines, physical-world time and effort constraints that has to be overcomed, before new mines are put online, etc... [EDIT: added]Therefore, there is about an order of magnitude more Monopoly Money in this world, than the global tangible, physical economy's GDP. Can you imagine even a fraction of that money, being pumped into gold/silver - and even assuming doing it orderly, and not in panic? No amount of new mines will suffice, to supply that amount and keep prices from going ballistic, simply no way. Not to mention, Monopoly Money wants everything NOW, and mines take time to start supplying stuff. Like, years

And the funniest thing is, it is clear as day to me (as green as I am in financials, which is RGB value of (0,255,0) ) that today's market is nothing but a headlines-driven. Just a sheeprats race, with a complete and utter disregard to any fundamentals. [EDIT: added] So all it takes, is few more inevitable doom & gloom headlines, instead of today's "everythings fine, we are finally off the rocks, there are off shots of recovery visible, tada!" - and we're back to square one. Only, with few more trillions of debt to pay off eventually, and to service it NOW, with some more trillions multiplied by ten by fractional reserves banking to spend on things/or to "invest" into..., emm..., whatever it is, that everyone else is investing in today... - I know! Twitters/Facebooks/Zyngas (high inflation, anyone? volatile, unproductive markets, anyone?), and without the slimmest chance to prevent the inflation, by rising the interest rates - because of that thing, whatsitsname, ah yes - totally out of touch with reality amounts of DEBT, that couldn't be serviced, if interest rates are to rise AT ALL.

Also, I firmly suspect short term Gold might and will be outperformed by stocks, and possibly, as a resut, even by fiat currencies (="falling gold prices") and if I could only predict, when the stocks will eventually collapse again (under another controlled set of doom & gloom headlines, I suppose - because NOTHING has fundamentally changed since 2007/8 crash, apart from taking on new mountains of debt, but we have already enjoyed few roller-caster ups in the stock markets...), I would probably invest in stocks ATM, and convert them back into phys' few months from now in the future. Too much risk for me, though, I could very well miss the moment, I am not a trader - so I will keep to something that is long-term safe and sure as hell to rise - phys PMs. How much they will eventually rise, and when, precisely - anyone's guess, but I do not have a second life to keep watching the headlines and invest like 99% of "pros" are doing, I have a job & life & SHTF preparations plan to execute...

regards,
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Last edited by bushi; 01-20-2012 at 10:22 AM. Reason: added one paragraph
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Old 01-20-2012, 05:32 PM   #52
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mmmm sheep rats .......

s'pose we could eat em ........ and save the sheep (-:
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Old 01-24-2012, 07:45 AM   #53
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Old 01-24-2012, 01:17 PM   #54
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Philippines is where Ben Fulford says theres lots of 'unrecorded ' gold held.

Is this why they can be the largest seller ?

Any records for previous years ?
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Old 01-24-2012, 01:19 PM   #55
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The Phillipines is the largest recorded seller.
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Old 02-06-2012, 06:56 AM   #56
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Iran is practically begging to be "Libya'd":
Quote :
TEHRAN (Commodity Online): Iran has more than 900 tonnes of gold, as per a national newspaper report, more than India and Japan!

As per the World Gold Council data of Aug 2011, this makes Iran the 10th largest holder of gold reserves in the world, beating Japan and India who both have 843.3 tonnes and 614.6 tonnes of the metal respectively.

Fars News Agency quoted Yahya Ale-Eshagh, Chairman of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce as saying that his country has 907 tonnes of Gold and $120 billion in foreign currency reserves. As such, Iran has no shortage of foreign funds to meet any obligations that may arise, he added.
...
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/...45761-3-1.html
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Old 02-09-2012, 02:44 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by PMBug View Post:
Iran is practically begging to be "Libya'd":
even more so if Chindia actually pays for crude with gold .....
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Old 03-19-2012, 11:31 AM   #58
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Quote :
Quote :
A sharp fall in gold prices has triggered large purchases of bullion by central banks in recent weeks, according to several traders with knowledge of the transactions...“Central banks have definitely been looking at gold as an asset class much more closely ever since European central banks stopped selling,” a senior gold banker said. “There has been a huge interest.”
The quote is from the Financial Times: ...
http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2012...triggered.html
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Old 03-19-2012, 11:40 AM   #59
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I'm not real sure I'd put much weight on Iranian reports...it's just the kind of things governments say when their economies are in the crapper - which theirs is.
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Old 03-19-2012, 08:44 PM   #60
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"there are about 5.46 billion ounces of gold above ground. 100:1 paper to physical would imply there are 546 billion paper gold ounces floating around. there are also over 17 billion silver ounces above ground a 100:1 ratio would imply 1.7 trillion paper silver ounces. this is ridiculous. a claim of fools and morons. there isnt that much money in the world"

@silverbug

even if 5.46 billion is our number, and that's fine if it is, that doesn't mean that that is the amount traded on the market. i would argue that the overwhelming majority of above ground gold and silver isn't available ( i'm certainly keeping mine) and therefore is most likely not considered in the market supply. central banks around the world are buying tons, literally. i feel pretty confident in saying they aren't letting theirs go for a while either. at least this is only my assumption. when people refer to the paper to phyzz ratio at 100:1 or 10:1 or whatever, i would guess that is either a reference to what is actually traded regularly including naked short selling or is a statement designed to reflect the disproportionate magnitude of paper to physical trading as opposed to a hard number.

going further, i read in many places where the world derivitives market is worth around 700 Trillion. i wouldnt' guess there was THAT much money in the world either, but i would at least open my mind to the possibilities before i called people fools and morons.
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