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Old 03-12-2012, 06:19 AM   #1
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Any bets on today??

Anyone want to bet on the action in the markets today? Asia was unimpressive last night, but there was a hell of a lot less volatility than one would suspect. I believe we will have to see how many CDS holders are out there to really know how hard the default will hit.

I suspect there was a lot of netting done in the months leading up to it, but we won't ever truly know because the CDS market is so dark and opaque.
All things being equal, the simplest answer is quite often the correct answer - Occam
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Old 03-12-2012, 08:23 AM   #2
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sideways to down. Probably will be that way all week.
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Old 03-12-2012, 09:13 AM   #3
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I suspect it will take awhile for all the news about CDS that were "dark pool" to come out. In the meanwhile, a lot of frantic phone calls trying to figure out if net is going to stay net, vs a counterparty failing and making a lot of the net into gross. Since the banks are already marking to fantasy, who's to say we have an issue until someone squawks in public?
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