Any bets on today??

[ancona]

Anyone want to bet on the action in the markets today? Asia was unimpressive last night, but there was a hell of a lot less volatility than one would suspect. I believe we will have to see how many CDS holders are out there to really know how hard the default will hit.

I suspect there was a lot of netting done in the months leading up to it, but we won't ever truly know because the CDS market is so dark and opaque.

 

[DSAbug]

sideways to down. Probably will be that way all week.

 

[DCFusor]

I suspect it will take awhile for all the news about CDS that were "dark pool" to come out. In the meanwhile, a lot of frantic phone calls trying to figure out if net is going to stay net, vs a counterparty failing and making a lot of the net into gross. Since the banks are already marking to fantasy, who's to say we have an issue until someone squawks in public?