Precious Metals Forum

Go Back   Precious Metals Forum > Precious Metals and Economic News > Fiat Ponzi

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
Old 11-22-2011, 08:24 AM   #1
Moderator
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,059
Liked: 459 times
Tlt

Fitch possibly downgrading the US debt...

Super committee fails to get a deal done..

Treasuries are up. The world is screwed up.

Currently, TLT looks a lot like the US dollar and has been putting in a bearish rising wedge. It's always possible this has a "bullish" resolution for the dollar and TLT but this move is seriously long in the tooth now and has been rallying on very light volume.

If you draw a trendline from October 27th low to the bottom of that congestion area in mid November you can see a clear trendline that once broken, could give the fuel to push treasuries lower. What it's going to take to finally break trend is unknown to me but the catalyst is there. TLT could potentially rise another $3 but frankly, the downside is $20+.

I'm just baffled at this point why people are so content to own treasuries when the yield is less than stated inflation. It makes no sense.
DSAbug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-22-2011, 08:49 AM   #2
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,055
Liked: 2451 times


When the lemmings finally discover tradition works better than central bank graft, there is going to be a hell of a pop.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-22-2011, 09:13 AM   #3
Moderator
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,059
Liked: 459 times
I know the fed is going to keep propping up our bonds but at this point, it's not just them doing it. Clearly, retail is involved.

Fundamentally, no one should be buying treasuries that yield 2% or less.
DSAbug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-22-2011, 10:00 AM   #4
Yellow Jacket
 
DCFusor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Floyd, Virginia
Posts: 1,682
Liked: 1233 times
Yeah, I find it hilarious; would be funnier had I not lost some on TMV, betting too soon, which is the same as being wrong - you gotta not get too caught up with the bears and just watch the tickers and "trade accordingly". People paranoid about the return OF their capital instead of return on it...I suppose it's a couple percent better return than the bank of mattress, but a heck of a lot riskier unless you're going to hold those suckers till maturity - which also seems quite stupid, as better opportunities are sure to turn up along the way - and at just that time, it's going to be hard to get your money back out of TLT as it will be tanking to reflect the fact that other things are growing. A complete loser's game.

Buy and hold has been dead on all but PMs for a long time now, but most people (and this includes their money managers) are too lazy to keep abreast of things and swing trade - they long for and assume there is some sort of set-and-forget way to make money. I reject that whole idea - I believe that all value has to be (or at least should be) earned - no one is entitled to receive it endlessly for doing nothing, much as we might all wish for it. Even so, and even as messed up as things are, the better rewards will go to those who work harder for them.
DCFusor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-23-2011, 12:32 PM   #5
Moderator
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,059
Liked: 459 times
Record directs in today's auction.. Record yields.. Insanity continues.

Correct me if i'm wrong, but aren't "directs' the public buying?
DSAbug is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:23 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® from Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.6.0 PL2 ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.
Content of PMBug.com copyright © 2011 - 2019 Measuring Up. All Rights Reserved.