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Old 11-22-2011, 10:24 AM   #1
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Fitch possibly downgrading the US debt...

Super committee fails to get a deal done..

Treasuries are up. The world is screwed up.

Currently, TLT looks a lot like the US dollar and has been putting in a bearish rising wedge. It's always possible this has a "bullish" resolution for the dollar and TLT but this move is seriously long in the tooth now and has been rallying on very light volume.

If you draw a trendline from October 27th low to the bottom of that congestion area in mid November you can see a clear trendline that once broken, could give the fuel to push treasuries lower. What it's going to take to finally break trend is unknown to me but the catalyst is there. TLT could potentially rise another $3 but frankly, the downside is $20+.

I'm just baffled at this point why people are so content to own treasuries when the yield is less than stated inflation. It makes no sense.
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Old 11-22-2011, 10:49 AM   #2
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When the lemmings finally discover tradition works better than central bank graft, there is going to be a hell of a pop.
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

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Old 11-22-2011, 11:13 AM   #3
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I know the fed is going to keep propping up our bonds but at this point, it's not just them doing it. Clearly, retail is involved.

Fundamentally, no one should be buying treasuries that yield 2% or less.
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Old 11-22-2011, 12:00 PM   #4
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Yeah, I find it hilarious; would be funnier had I not lost some on TMV, betting too soon, which is the same as being wrong - you gotta not get too caught up with the bears and just watch the tickers and "trade accordingly". People paranoid about the return OF their capital instead of return on it...I suppose it's a couple percent better return than the bank of mattress, but a heck of a lot riskier unless you're going to hold those suckers till maturity - which also seems quite stupid, as better opportunities are sure to turn up along the way - and at just that time, it's going to be hard to get your money back out of TLT as it will be tanking to reflect the fact that other things are growing. A complete loser's game.

Buy and hold has been dead on all but PMs for a long time now, but most people (and this includes their money managers) are too lazy to keep abreast of things and swing trade - they long for and assume there is some sort of set-and-forget way to make money. I reject that whole idea - I believe that all value has to be (or at least should be) earned - no one is entitled to receive it endlessly for doing nothing, much as we might all wish for it. Even so, and even as messed up as things are, the better rewards will go to those who work harder for them.
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Old 11-23-2011, 02:32 PM   #5
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Record directs in today's auction.. Record yields.. Insanity continues.

Correct me if i'm wrong, but aren't "directs' the public buying?
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