Fitch possibly downgrading the US debt...
Super committee fails to get a deal done..
Treasuries are up. The world is screwed up.
Currently, TLT looks a lot like the US dollar and has been putting in a bearish rising wedge. It's always possible this has a "bullish" resolution for the dollar and TLT but this move is seriously long in the tooth now and has been rallying on very light volume.
If you draw a trendline from October 27th low to the bottom of that congestion area in mid November you can see a clear trendline that once broken, could give the fuel to push treasuries lower. What it's going to take to finally break trend is unknown to me but the catalyst is there. TLT could potentially rise another $3 but frankly, the downside is $20+.
I'm just baffled at this point why people are so content to own treasuries when the yield is less than stated inflation. It makes no sense.
Super committee fails to get a deal done..
Treasuries are up. The world is screwed up.
Currently, TLT looks a lot like the US dollar and has been putting in a bearish rising wedge. It's always possible this has a "bullish" resolution for the dollar and TLT but this move is seriously long in the tooth now and has been rallying on very light volume.
If you draw a trendline from October 27th low to the bottom of that congestion area in mid November you can see a clear trendline that once broken, could give the fuel to push treasuries lower. What it's going to take to finally break trend is unknown to me but the catalyst is there. TLT could potentially rise another $3 but frankly, the downside is $20+.
I'm just baffled at this point why people are so content to own treasuries when the yield is less than stated inflation. It makes no sense.