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Old 08-06-2017, 10:50 AM   #61
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The hits just keep on coming down in utopia-ville. Now I really can't help but start to wonder if a bunch of these western hemisphere shit holes wouldn't be a lot better off if the U.S. were to drag them into an American colonial empire.



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Old 10-24-2017, 09:06 AM   #62
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Venezuela this month allowed a $1.7 billion gold swap with Germany’s Deutsche Bank AG (DBKGn.DE) to lapse, according to an opposition legislator who said it weakens the balance sheet of the crisis-stricken OPEC nation’s central bank.

Through the operation, Venezuela had received $1.2 billion in cash in exchange for putting up $1.7 billion worth of gold in guarantee, part of efforts to improve the liquidity of foreign reserves amid heavy foreign debt payments and low oil prices.

Legislator Angel Alvarado said the contract’s expiration weakens international reserves, which are hovering near 21-year lows as the country’s socialist economic model collapses under low oil prices.

“Venezuela decided to allow this contract to lapse,” said Alvarado in a telephone interview on Monday. “We think the government could have negotiated better.”

The central bank will receive another $500 million in cash to reflect the difference between the amount of the loan and the value of the guarantee, said Alvarado, who obtained the information from finance industry sources.

Venezuela had to pay $1.2 billion by the middle of October to recover the gold, he said.
...
Venezuela and state oil company PDVSA must pay nearly $3.5 billion in debt service in October and November, including maturity payments of $2 billion.

Bonds issued by Venezuela and PDVSA were down across the board on Monday, with some falling as much as 2.5 points.

Traders attributed the decline to increased nervousness over delayed coupon payments.

The heavy payment schedule has left the government with limited hard currency for imports of basic items such as food and medicine, spurring product shortages and leaving millions struggling to eat.
...
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ve...KBN1CS2CD?il=0

It's so sad really. Beautiful, fertile land. Rich in resources. But the people are trapped by their own culture and political ethos.
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Old 10-24-2017, 09:42 AM   #63
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Yeah I saw this
Im slightly surprised that Venezuela still holds any of its gold.
DB knew how to relieve them of it.
EuroCB will print to cover it.

Assume all Venevuela's gold will be gone by the end of the year as its becoming the only asset they have (had ?) that they can meet their debt obligations with.

Time for the U.S. to up the sanctions ?
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Old 10-24-2017, 01:14 PM   #64
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Venezuela was sold down the road by a man who painted a picture of a life that could never be. Chavez sold off their nations vast wealth a little bit at a time to buy the loyalty of the little people for a while, but when the money ran out, and all the brains left the country while they still could, it all collapsed. When Maduro took over, the country was well on the way to total collapse.
Now, in her death throes, Venezuela is no longer able to roll over debt and is unable to sell new bonds. Her gold is nearly gone and she only has a few billion dollars left. The government owned oil monopoly has been basically left to rot for so long that it is in total collapse right now and since they have no money, the heavy crude from the Orinoco belt cannot be pumped easily, since they cannot buy the light crude needed to mix with it so it will flow well enough to be pumped, since it is nearly the viscosity of tar.

The brain drain, coupled with the businesses that have been seized and ruined by the government and others that simply shut down have ruined the once proud, rich nation.

Socialism always works until it no longer does. It always looks good on paper, but cannot work in practice because the people in power will always carve out more for themselves, their families, friends an cronies first, leading to what we see in Venezuela.

What's next? Either all out civil insurrection/war or all out totalitarian clampdown and outright executions and shoot downs of protesting civilians to put it all down. Maduro will never concede power. He will be president until he dies or is killed.

I predict the military takes over at some point. We'll wait and see on this one, but it will happen far sooner than later, because the people have had it.
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Old 10-27-2017, 01:05 PM   #65
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PVDSA made their bond payment in the nick of time, and at the very end of the grace period, but the end is still near. Venezuela is almost completely our of foreign reserves, as they are burning through the last nine billion dollars they have by paying debs that comes due. They have another payment coming up in a few days, but the end is inevitable, and Maduro is boxed in to a corner. I think military coup is in the air, but he is just too stupid to see it.
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Old 10-27-2017, 01:32 PM   #66
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Its somewhat ironic that Murika and anyone with a central bank that is part of the club, can get away with what Maduro was planning on doing ........

That 'colonial empire' is currently based on hollow promises.

The amount of money 'printed' and fed back into the banking system, at no cost to those banks, could have cleared all the accrued debt and the world could now be busy building a new mountain of debt.

Ah well, a ponzi scheme that must expand in order to survive on a planet with finite resources, what could possibly go wrong ?
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Old 10-30-2017, 11:59 AM   #67
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American sanctions are really starting to take hold. Maduro is boxed in and there's precious little he can do about it. His family is looking to the exits, but no one really wants to be the nation that takes them in. That makes them prisoners in their own country. If indeed the people grow a backbone and violently revolt, Maduro is fucked. His family will be left with nothing but prison sentences and Maduro will likely be killed, that is unless the military forms a coup and locks his ass in prison for his own safety.
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Old 10-31-2017, 04:51 AM   #68
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Socialism always works until it no longer does. It always looks good on paper, but cannot work in practice because the people in power will always carve out more for themselves, their families, friends an cronies first, leading to what we see in Venezuela.
I reckon all governments practise socialism ..... just enough to stay in power
Maduro is no different, he just happens to be Venezuela's sociopathic controller.

Without American sanctions ( which were triggered because he talked about going away from the petro dollar ) and if he was part of the 'control club', the currency would have been allowed to stay broadly in step with G10 currency printing and all would be pretty much as it has always been.
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Old 10-31-2017, 07:33 AM   #69
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Although PDVSA said it paid an $842 million principal payment on its 2020 bonds due last Friday, the money has yet to materialize in the accounts of bondholders. Another $1.2 billion payment looms on Thursday. And to top it off, the clock is ticking on more than half a billion dollars in debt from the state oil firm and Nicolas Maduro’s government that are in a 30-day grace period. That said, if Venezuela can survive the next two weeks, it will be smoother sailing until the next big chunk of payments come due in April.
...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-default-watch
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Old 11-13-2017, 03:16 PM   #70
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Another set of bonds are in default, 1.2 bbn. worth this time, and the "negotiators" are going to sit around a table and talk "terms" with them. On the other hand, the people at the rating agencies are going to decide whether to trigger the CDS. If this happens, then it's game over for Venezuela, because their bonds now go in to the toilet, because no one will buy them at any price.

This is major shit people. A total trigger means Venezuela is completely locked out of all capitol markets and cannot get any foreign currency inputs from any investors. That means Maduro HAS TO GO. The military will have no choice but to chase him and his cronies out of the country in to exile in Peru or somewhere.
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Old 11-13-2017, 04:36 PM   #71
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Its apparently the job of the ISDA to decide if there has been a default.

https://www2.isda.org/asset-classes/credit-derivatives/

In the last great banking crisis there were clearly several CDS defaults but the ISDA ruled on each occasion that there had been no actual default....

My suspicion at the time was that the controllers could not allow a default to register due to the contagion it would trigger.

I suspect there could be similar considerations that we are not aware of but it may also be that they wish to 'punish' Venezuela and have prepared the ground so the default is declared but any consequential default is managed away from the need to register it as a further default.
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Old 11-14-2017, 08:48 AM   #72
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Thursday last week:
Quote :
...
Creditors have also asked finance industry association ISDA to determine if Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA [PDVSA.UL] is in default because of a delayed bond payment.

The International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) website showed that PDVSA was on its agenda for Friday at 11 a.m. EST (1600 GMT).
...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-v...-idUSKBN1D9291

Friday last week:
Quote :
A committee of derivatives industry group ISDA will reconvene on Monday to discuss whether Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA has triggered a credit event through a late payment of its 2017N bond, ISDA said on its website on Friday.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-v...-idUSKBN1DA2F3

Monday:
Quote :
...
The so-called Determinations Committee for the Americas, comprised of 15 financial firms, met in New York following an initial gathering last Friday, "to discuss whether a Failure to Pay Credit Event had occurred" with respect to PDVSA, according to the ISDA.

It ended up deciding to again postpone a decision until Tuesday.
...
https://www.yahoo.com/news/venezuela...164355622.html

Anyone think they will announce a decision today? Lulz.

How do you know she (PDVSA) is a witch (in default)?

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Old 11-14-2017, 12:28 PM   #73
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I think sooner than later, Venezuela will have to be determined to be in direct default. This will be the great test of the CDS market. All those counter-party swaps held across the world will finally be shown for what they are.......worthless.
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Old 11-15-2017, 07:20 AM   #74
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Quote :
...
Venezuelan bonds slid on Tuesday after S&P Global Ratings announced that Venezuela was in selective default for failing to make $200 million in overdue coupon payments on its 2019 and 2024 global issues within a 30-day grace period.
...
On another flank of the country’s creditworthiness, a committee of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) is looking into whether PDVSA triggered a credit event through late payment of its 2017N bond this month.

The group said it would reconvene on Thursday to continue discussions of whether or not PDVSA was in default.

ISDA also said on Tuesday it had received another request from investors as to whether Venezuela had triggered a credit event due to the late payment of the coupon on its sovereign bonds.

Bondholders had told Reuters on Monday they had not yet received payments on the 2019 and 2024 bonds but were unconcerned about the delay, which they said was partly due to increased bank vigilance following the U.S. sanctions.

In its statement on Monday, S&P Global Ratings said it could raise Venezuela’s ratings again if the government made payments on the overdue coupons and remained timely on other payments before the restructuring is completed.

However, it said it saw a one-in-two chance that Venezuela could default again within the next three months and it listed a further four bonds with overdue coupon payments due in the coming weeks, with unpaid obligations totaling $420 million.

The Luxembourg Stock Exchange said on Tuesday said it was temporarily halting trading of Venezuela’s 2019 and 2024 bonds due to the “event of default” in order to make changes to the way in which the securities are traded.

Fitch Ratings also downgraded PDVSA due to “payment default” on notes due on Oct. 27 and Nov. 2 after “processing delays that resulted in bondholders receiving principal payments up to one week after the due date.”
...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-v...-idUSKBN1DE1QS

Venezuela couldn't find the cash to recover the gold they pawned, they aren't going to be paying back these bond debts. They are in deep doo doo.
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Old 11-16-2017, 06:25 AM   #75
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hmmm

Those trouble making Russians are at it again (-:

https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/...rnment-afloat/

Seeing that Murika is intent on destroying the Venezuelan economy ( with Maduros help, obviously ) the best way to annoy Murika is to bail em out, no doubt in return for a bit of ownership of Venezuelas oil assets.
Why, Russia could take it all over and blend the low grade oil with some best Russian sweet light crude.
Some crypto currency support might add to the fun as well.
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Old 11-16-2017, 07:44 AM   #76
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I don't think any amount of debt restructuring is going to prevent the inevitable default/crash.
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Old 11-16-2017, 09:04 AM   #77
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Eggzactly 'Bug. Venezuela has several problems with her oil fields. One is simple neglect. They stopped maintaining them and diverted too much money to the "party". Then, they ran out of money they needed to buy light sweet crude to mix with the fookin tar they pump out of the Orinoco belt so it can be sold abroad and refined. Then, by stealing and expropriating businesses and breaking agreements they chased all the educated talent out of the country, leaving behind only middle management sorts who can't really handle things the way they need to be handled. The whole oil industry down there is in total collapse. It's not America that did it, it all started with Chavez and accelerated under Maduro. We're watching the death throes right now. Total collapse of the economy is just a matter of time now. They'll go full Zimbabwe within a year.
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Old 11-28-2017, 04:24 PM   #78
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Dont worry Russia can fix it
and Zimbabwe
and the Middle East

not sure about Murika though (-;
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Old 11-28-2017, 05:24 PM   #79
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BTW, the ISDA did actually (finally) rule that PDVSA default was a credit event last week:

https://www.reuters.com/article/vene...-idUSL1N1NM2DP
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Old 11-29-2017, 04:57 AM   #80
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They will have been looking at counterparties getting dragged in and been working hard to ensure it was all contained and managed before they finally declared a credit default.

Something of a non event ?
It didnt get much air time in the media, so perhaps not useful to the controllers to show what happens to disobedient countries when they default i.e. not a lot really.
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