2025 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

[nickndfl]

Chinese State must be getting the premium.

 

[Goldhedge]

Silver Squeezed Again In London, As Gold Soars On Sunday Night Open​

Premiered Oct 12, 2025

Silver Squeezed Again In London, As Gold Soars On Sunday Night Open

The silver squeeze continued as the precious metals markets opened again on Sunday night in the Far East.

The silver spread between the spot market in London and the futures in New York is still elevated and out of line to a degree that has even the insiders panicking. And the situation isn't being helped by how gold continues to soar.
5

 

[pmbug]

Gold and silver up big from yesterday's close in overnight trading in China. SGE spot for both gold and silver closes the gap with LBMA spot. The SFE silver vault reports another large outflow. SGE/SFE price for silver needs to rise further still to trade at a premium to LBMA spot if China wants to compete for the West's silver. Given the SFE/SGE vault drains and various reports of domestic retail supply shortages in China (for silver), I expect it won't be long before that happens.

 

[pmbug]

Gold and silver both trade up slightly from yesterday's close in overnight trading in China. However, both still trade at a discount to the West (LBMA/COMEX). China will need to bid silver up higher if they want to compete for the West's physical, which it seems they need as the SFE vault reports another huge outflow.

 

[Cigarlover]

EXK announced commercial production this morning. I figured something was up with the gains we saw yesterday.

 

[Voodoo]

China has a local scarcity problem. They need to up the spot price on the SGE to compete for the West's silver if they want it.

This looks to be a test of their trading market, what is it the SGE. Because that's a huge spread and if its a real market that should close quickly.

 

[Voodoo]

EXK announced commercial production this morning. I figured something was up with the gains we saw yesterday.

Huh? They've had operating mines for decades. Did they bring a new one on-line?

 

[pmbug]

This looks to be a test of their trading market, what is it the SGE. Because that's a huge spread and if its a real market that should close quickly.

SGE = China spot market (equiv LBMA OTC)
SFE = China futures market (equiv COMEX)

 

[Cigarlover]

Huh? They've had operating mines for decades. Did they bring a new one on-line?

Yes, sorry. The terronera project is now in commercial production.

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Oct. 16, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Endeavour Silver Corp. ("Endeavour" or the "Company") (NYSE: EXK; TSX: EDR) is pleased to announce it has achieved commercial production at the Terronera mine (“Terronera”) located in Jalisco state, Mexico, effective October 1, 2025.

The declaration of commercial production at Terronera comes after a successful commissioning phase during which both mining and processing operations were ramped up to consistently exceed an average of 90% of the designed nameplate capacity of 2,000 tonnes per day, while also achieving at least 90% of the projected metal recoveries.

Terronera has demonstrated remarkable progress, operating for 100 days since July 1, 2025, with eight days of downtime, and has sustained strong metal recoveries since mid-August. This achievement marks an important milestone that positions Endeavour for continued growth and long-term success.

"Bringing Terronera into commercial production marks a huge milestone for Endeavour Silver and represents a truly transformational moment in our Company's history," said Dan Dickson, Chief Executive Officer. "This achievement not only reinforces our commitment to sustainable growth but also positions Endeavour as a leading mid-tier silver producer with a solid foundation for future expansion.”

The Company forecasts throughput of approximately 360,000 tonnes over the next six months, with average grades estimated at 122 g/t silver and 2.52 g/t gold. Higher grade zones are scheduled to be accessed by mid-2026, which is expected to further enhance production. Management plans to issue annualized 2026 production and cost guidance for the Terronera mine in January 2026.​

 

[Goldhedge]

Obvious Ai voice... probably of a Ray Dalio writing...? listen at 1.75x

ALERT: NO SILVER LIQUIDITY IN LONDON | URGENT FINANCIAL WARNING & SYSTEMIC RISK REVEALED​

DESCRIPTION: The global financial system is flashing red as silver liquidity in London—the world’s primary metals hub—has dried up. In this in-depth 23-minute breakdown, we explore the underlying causes, the ripple effects across markets, and what this means for investors, traders, and policymakers. The speech dissects the structural fragility of modern markets, the lessons from historical cycles, and the principles needed to adapt to the next wave of disruption. This analysis captures the essence of systemic thinking, long-term perspective, and the strategic clarity required to survive periods of extreme volatility.

Discover the hidden mechanics behind the collapse of liquidity, the interplay between confidence and capital, and why history shows that every liquidity event is both a warning and an opportunity.

TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 – Introduction: The Shock of No Silver Liquidity
02:10 – The Structural Breakdown of London’s Market
05:30 – Understanding Systemic Causality
09:00 – Historical Parallels and Big Cycles
13:20 – Fragilities in Modern Financial Systems
16:45 – Asymmetric Risks and Strategic Positioning
19:10 – Principles for Adaptation and Survival
22:10 – Final Thoughts and Key Takeaways
23

 

[pmbug]

There seem to be a lot of folks making fake AI videos purporting to be Dalio.

 

[Goldhedge]

There seem to be a lot of folks making fake AI videos purporting to be Dalio.

Good to know... I thought it was something he said in a speech that was vocalized by bot.

 

[Cigarlover]

Martin says highs this month then a pullback. 4500 is the top for gold for now. Once gold breaks 5k then the target is 10k. No timeline for either though.

 

[Goldhedge]

"I've NEVER Seen Anything Like This" - Silver Liquidity COMPLETELY GONE! - Mike Maloney​

0:00 - Intro: Silver Market Chaos
0:13 - Silver Lease Rates Explode to 33%!
1:57 - India Silver Shortage & ETF Halts
3:37 - SLV, GLLD
4:11 - China Physical Silver at $59/oz - $8 Premium!
5:43 - Silver Traders Rushing Bars to London
7:40 - Silver Refiner Update: 50% Back of Spot!
9:57 - Silver's Value Reasserting Worldwide
10:32 - Bank of America Sees $65 Silver (LOL)
12

 

[pmbug]

Gold and silver both up from yesterday's close in overnight trading in China. Gold now on par with the West while silver still at a discount. Meanwhile, the SFE vault sees huge outflow. At this rate, China will have a silver problem very soon. SGE silver price must rise to attract silver flow from the West.

 

[Goldhedge]

Looks like a minor correction is taking place... let's see how long it lasts....

 

[pmbug]

CME margin hike equilibrium

 

[Voodoo]

There seem to be a lot of folks making fake AI videos purporting to be Dalio.

I'm sensing some banker desperation starting to rise up.

 

[Voodoo]

Tried one of my first London Fix low trades. Sold a short term SLV $47-45 put spread. Risk like $120 to make $80 that expires in a week.

I think this is just more paper being thrown at the problem. The EFP spreads have bounced around but with this slam they are widening again.

 

[nickndfl]

Tremendous buying opportunity today. If you have cash go long on GDXU, SILJ and AGQ plus all 3 physical PMs.

 

[Goldhedge]

Bill Holter interview at 1.5x speed

Bill Holter's TERRIFYING Warning to GOLD & SILVER Buyers​

46

 

[Goldhedge]

/7
Silver has now been in backwardation for 16 straight days.
That means spot silver trades $1.24 higher than futures, a rare sign of physical scarcity.
At the same time, SLV borrow rates have exploded to 19%, one of the highest ever recorded.
This isn’t just volatility, it’s funding stress spreading through the financial system.
#silversqueeze

unolled

https://x.com/SunilRe89392848/thread/1979371016414523439

 

[Goldhedge]