2025 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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The US govt should take large equity positions in the miners if they want to restrict exports.
 
Multiple media outlets report that the US and China are nearing agreement on a trade deal which would purportedly lift the threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods next week and ease the flow of rare earth exports from China. Does the news move the markets this week, or have traders finally learned to wait until the fat lady sings?
 

 

 

Today is Options Expiration so expect Mr. Slammy to be active today.
 
You and a spouse could grab 2 each 1000 oz bars from SD bullion and fly over there. Make about 30k per bar and enjoy a vacation in Bali. Write the whole thing off as a business expense and do it once a month for as long as the arbitrage lasts.
 
You and a spouse could grab 2 each 1000 oz bars from SD bullion and fly over there. Make about 30k per bar and enjoy a vacation in Bali. Write the whole thing off as a business expense and do it once a month for as long as the arbitrage lasts.
You would need a special visa to do that, but if you could trust the airlines or other transportation outfit and make it through customs without the silver getting confiscated, then okay. I would try it with a few kilo bars first. You know how customs has their hands out because of loopholes and import taxes.
 

Process as explained by
@SilverHaas

JPM "quant" fund borrows 50.000 shares, sell them short
JPM metals desk buys 50.000 shares at that same exact time from their "quant" fund
JPM metals desk redeems said 50.000 shares for PHYSICAL METAL
JPM metals desk borrows 50.000 shares and sell them short
JPM "quant" fund buys 50.000 shares at that same exact time from their metals desk, covers short.
End result is what matters:
Same amount of shares in SLV fund
JPM took silver out
JPM has a short
 
Eric was mistaken on PSLV. He corrected himself this morning:
...
So we go back to square one. The Bullion Banks APs most likely short $PSLV to suppress $PSLV from adding new #Silver bars, but not to short $PSLV for physical #Silver redemption. This aligns with $PSLV historical records.

This aligns with Semper's thesis:

~~~

 
Guess I don't get the PSLV "shorting" theory. As I understand it, the fund buys more silver when they decide to issue more shares. The price per share (I don't believe) has anything to do with whether or not they buy more. If they decide to expand the fund size, they issue more shares, and then buy more silver to put into vault inventory If someone cashes in their shares for physical (which is possible under specific circumstances, has to be in even numbers of bars, a minimum amount that I don't recall without looking at the rules, requires advance notice, requires they be picked up in Canada, etc, etc), then bars leave the storage, and the number of shares go down, until and if they decide to re-issue those shares.

Of course traders can play with shorting the fund, but ultimately unless they satisfy the fund rules for delivery, nothing leaves the vault.

The price per share of the fund is currently trading at a discount to the NAV, but that's normal. What wasn't normal was when the price was trading at a significant premium to the NAV, which happened in 2012, etc.

What am I missing?
 
Purportedly, Sprott will buy silver and add units to the trust when it trades at a premium to NAV. Semper's thesis is that intraday shorting activity (not overall shorting activity) is designed to prevent a sustained premium to NAV to limit the acquisition of silver. Click his tweet posted above for more details including his forensic work analyzing market data.
 
4090 is 20 DMA on gold. Almost there. Would love to see us get above that and hold. Maybe just ride the 20 day higher slowly.

Ag 20 day is 49.75. Also very close.

If they both break above and hold then this time really is different.
 
Well, I still don't understand, but that's ok. The Trust can buy an unlimited amount of silver, it is not limited, and it can and does issue new units of the trust periodically. Quoting one of their prospectus documents, emphasis mine:
The Trust invests and intends to continue to invest primarily in long-term holdings of unencumbered, fully allocated, physical silver bullion and does not speculate with regard to short-term changes in silver prices.
I don't know why someone would be trying to manipulate the Trust to prevent it from buying silver, when they can issue new units and then buy more silver any time they want. Maybe someone is trying to manipulate the Trust to gain buy and sell advantages for day trading - that could be possible.

While I noticed that there was a slight premium as of end of last month, the trust has had very few instances of significant premium, and has had no significant long-term premium that I can observe (on a plot) to NAV since early in its history (2010-2012).
 
Grok:

The Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV) is a closed-end trust that holds physical silver bullion. New units (shares) are typically added through its at-the-market (ATM) distribution program or other offerings outlined in its prospectus. This process is prompted primarily when PSLV units trade at a premium to the trust's net asset value (NAV), which reflects strong investor demand for exposure to physical silver without the logistics of direct ownership.
Key Circumstances and Process:
  • Trading at a Premium to NAV: Issuance occurs when the market price of PSLV units exceeds the NAV per unit. This allows Sprott to sell new units at the elevated market price without diluting existing unitholders' value. The prospectus explicitly prohibits issuing units if net proceeds are less than 100% of the most recently calculated NAV (except in cases of income distributions). This premium-driven approach helps arbitrage the difference, as proceeds are used to acquire more silver at spot prices, expanding the trust's holdings and often reducing the premium over time.
  • Investor Demand and Market Conditions: High demand for silver exposure, such as during periods of rising silver prices, industrial demand surges, or retail investor interest (e.g., avoiding high premiums on physical coins/bars), can push PSLV to a premium. For instance, when physical silver coins trade at markups of 20%+ over spot, investors may flock to PSLV, creating issuance opportunities.
  • Use of Proceeds to Add Silver: All net proceeds from new unit issuances are invested in additional fully allocated, unencumbered London Good Delivery silver bars. The trust does not speculate on short-term price changes and maintains long-term holdings, so adding silver directly correlates with unit creation to match the expanded asset base.

Additional Notes:
  • PSLV's structure as a closed-end fund means it doesn't have continuous creation/redemption like open-end ETFs (e.g., SLV). Instead, it relies on the ATM program, which can raise up to US$2 billion over a 25-month shelf prospectus period via underwriters, dealers, agents, or direct sales.
  • Historical examples show issuances during premium periods, but the trust may trade at discounts at other times due to market sentiment, liquidity, or silver price volatility, during which no new units are added.
  • Redemptions (opposite of issuance) allow unitholders to exchange large blocks of units for physical silver, but this doesn't prompt adding units/silver—it's for outflows.

For the most current details, review the latest prospectus or NAV/premium data on Sprott's website.
 
Thanks! I don't accept AI explanations at face value, but it does give me something to dig into. I just skimmed through a 34 page prospectus and the word premium was only used in one paragraph, twice, where it warned people against buying units at a premium to the NAV. So in order to issue new units, people have to buy at a premium to NAV, which they "discourage". Hmmmm.

On the other hand, they are issuing ATM new units almost constantly. I wasn't able to discern what triggered that, other than the Trust issuing a new Prospectus for another tranche. I didn't see anything that clearly said they couldn't issue units unless the units were trading at a premium. But hey, if AI can figure that out that quickly, more power to AI - that means AI can weed through pages and pages of legalese and find the key triggers, when a typical human can't. I find that more interesting than the original thesis of this sub-thread.
 
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