2025 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat
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Interesting...
The Chinese #Gold jewelry industry trolls, the Chinese #Gold and #Silver naked shorts, and Western Media are all very aggressive towards the new Chinese government #Gold tax laws.
They all have something to hide. They all lie for their own monetary gains at the expense of their customers/counterparties/subscribers.
The Chinese #Gold jewelry industry trolls, the Chinese #Gold and #Silver naked shorts, and Western Media are all very aggressive towards the new Chinese government #Gold tax laws.
They all have something to hide. They all lie for their own monetary gains at the expense of their customers/counterparties/subscribers.
It's the same thing that happens everywhere all the time. Something happens and folks (MSM, social media KOLs, etc.) report on it using selective interpretations or omissions of fact to enforce their preferred narrative.
Building a large short position in the process. Then when it gets to big they create a Swap contract to deliver fake shares.
It's got a Huge amount of the real thing (assumed anyway). That makes it a giant target when metal is needed so badly. There are SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO many scammy games in the stock market that its unreasonably to think the bankers haven't figured this one out to at least borrow some of this metal.
Rur roh scooby, What ya doing Crypto? BItcoin nearing a very important support level.
Stocks are UP again, what else is new in the bubble market.
But there are VERY real signs of stress in the SOFR markets.
Mr. Slammy.moved from Fridays to Tuesdays. Keep your eyes open. Experts are saying gold needs to get down to the 200-day before it makes the next leg higher. I hope they are wrong, but were right about the big takedown last.month.
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Physical #Gold demand at the Shanghai #Gold Exchange (SGE) will explode higher. Here is why:
1) Chinese ETFs and Funds will focus their physical #Gold buying at the SGE to enjoy 13% VAT EXEMPTION.
2) Chinese citizens will focus all their physical #Gold bars buying via direct SGE investment standard #Gold bars buying & withdraws or via Chinese state-owned commercial banks investment standard #Gold bars buying & withdraws to enjoy 13% VAT EXEMPTION.
3) A big portion of Chinese citizens will buy VAT EXEMPT Chinese state-owned commercial banks investment standard #Gold bars and bring them to goldsmiths to make #Gold jewelry out of them. This is 13% cheaper than non-investment #Gold jewelry that they buy from #Gold jewelry stores since the #Gold jewelry stores will have 13% VAT rolled into their #Gold jewelry products.
4) Although Chinese #Gold recycling companies don’t need to pay VAT when they buy #Gold back from Chinese citizens, they will need to remit 13% VAT (to the Chinese tax authorities) if they sell that #Gold to any other businesses or individuals directly (No Special VAT invoice SVI for VAT deduction).
So #Gold recycling companies must sell the recycled #Gold back at the SGE to enjoy 13% VAT exemption.
Chinese #Gold recycling companies must become SGE members (if they are not already) to enjoy 13% VAT exemption by selling their recycled #Gold to their SGE member customers via the SGE.
Silver Rip Currents
The spot price of silver has been pretty calm the last few days, gradually deflating a bit each day. One might think all is calm in the silver ocean, but the real violence lies below the surface in the rip currents:
- Indian futures are in backwardation signalling strong demand for immediate delivery of physical silver. As of the time I'm composing this post, Dec SILVER on the MCX is $51.10/ozt and Nov SILVERM on the MCX is $51.82/ozt. It looks like the LBMA OTC markets have not quite satisfied Indian demand yet.
- After touching zero about a week ago, the EFP spread (COMEX futures minus LBMA OTC spot) is back in negative territory - currently about -$.034 at the moment (it was -$0.51 two days ago). This happens when physical silver supply in London is tight/strained. A large enough negative EFP spread encourages arbitrage traders to buy silver from the COMEX and sell it in London/LBMA (which means shipping it there).
- China is imposing export controls/restrictions on silver. After the SFE and SGE both saw massive drawdowns on their silver vault stock over the entire month of October (SFE lost 17.2M ozt / 536.1 metric tons and SGE lost 11M ozt / 342 metric tons), China appears to be closing the door on potential exports of SFE/SGE silver to London. As the SGE is again trading at a premium to LBMA spot, the SGE might actually be encouraging arbitrage traders to buy LBMA silver and send it to China (SGE).
- SLV short interest has spiked to a new all time high. Since October 15, when the LBMA was having serious trouble with physical silver supply, we have observed 28M ozt (870.7 metric tons) of silver leave the SLV vault stock. I believe that most of that silver was redeemed by authorized participants (bullion banks) with leased/borrowed shares. The all time high short interest would seem to support that conclusion. If this is correct, the leased/borrowed shares will need to be paid back and there may end up being a bit of a short squeeze in SLV shares.
Bottom Line
All signs point towards London/LBMA needing more silver to satisfy demand for physical silver from India. It looks like China is closing the door to helping out the LBMA, so London it going to have to raid the COMEX even harder to get what it needs. SLV is our indirect canary to stress in the LBMA silver market and it is starting to show signs of stress.
EFP Spreads
China silver export controls/restrictions
SLV short interest spiking
The spot price of silver has been pretty calm the last few days, gradually deflating a bit each day. One might think all is calm in the silver ocean, but the real violence lies below the surface in the rip currents:
- Indian futures are in backwardation signalling strong demand for immediate delivery of physical silver. As of the time I'm composing this post, Dec SILVER on the MCX is $51.10/ozt and Nov SILVERM on the MCX is $51.82/ozt. It looks like the LBMA OTC markets have not quite satisfied Indian demand yet.
- After touching zero about a week ago, the EFP spread (COMEX futures minus LBMA OTC spot) is back in negative territory - currently about -$.034 at the moment (it was -$0.51 two days ago). This happens when physical silver supply in London is tight/strained. A large enough negative EFP spread encourages arbitrage traders to buy silver from the COMEX and sell it in London/LBMA (which means shipping it there).
- China is imposing export controls/restrictions on silver. After the SFE and SGE both saw massive drawdowns on their silver vault stock over the entire month of October (SFE lost 17.2M ozt / 536.1 metric tons and SGE lost 11M ozt / 342 metric tons), China appears to be closing the door on potential exports of SFE/SGE silver to London. As the SGE is again trading at a premium to LBMA spot, the SGE might actually be encouraging arbitrage traders to buy LBMA silver and send it to China (SGE).
- SLV short interest has spiked to a new all time high. Since October 15, when the LBMA was having serious trouble with physical silver supply, we have observed 28M ozt (870.7 metric tons) of silver leave the SLV vault stock. I believe that most of that silver was redeemed by authorized participants (bullion banks) with leased/borrowed shares. The all time high short interest would seem to support that conclusion. If this is correct, the leased/borrowed shares will need to be paid back and there may end up being a bit of a short squeeze in SLV shares.
Bottom Line
All signs point towards London/LBMA needing more silver to satisfy demand for physical silver from India. It looks like China is closing the door to helping out the LBMA, so London it going to have to raid the COMEX even harder to get what it needs. SLV is our indirect canary to stress in the LBMA silver market and it is starting to show signs of stress.
EFP Spreads
China silver export controls/restrictions
SLV short interest spiking
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Kind of looks as if the long-standing veil has been removed from the pricing mechanism for PM's...
They let off some steam in the pressure cooker and the 'new' price has set in.
Kind of looks as if we'll hang out +/- for a few months until the new support is reached.
All bets are off if someone lights up a nuclear candle though....
They let off some steam in the pressure cooker and the 'new' price has set in.
Kind of looks as if we'll hang out +/- for a few months until the new support is reached.
All bets are off if someone lights up a nuclear candle though....
The way this stress has been building but they keep hiding it all.... this is a catastrophic and epic explosion. I just hope this isn't the Deathstar with an invisible raygun.
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SECRET SILVER REFINERY SHORTAGE EXPOSED! 
Dealer Reveals Shocking Reason NO ONE KNOWS ABOUT!
In this video my bullion dealer Silver Dave of Local Silver Mint reveals the shocking silver refinery shortage that no one is talking about! Why are silver refineries refusing 90% silver, sterling silver, and other alloyed silver? How does the military's need for silver factor in? And what does this silver shortage mean to the future price of silver? Watch as Silver Dave and vocal silver buyers in his shot share their thoughts on what's coming with stacking silver and gold and the best exit strategy to have with one's bullion. Are YOU about to sell your silver or gold back to a bullion dealer? Join Silver Dave and I as we dive DEEP into what REALLY happening at the silver refineries and why! Never before has stacking precious metals been as important to do as it is today. Protect yourself from out-of-control governments, evil central banks, and the failing US dollar's grip as the world's reserve currency. Make sure you build a stack of silver rounds, silver bars, silver coins, and gold coins as essential barter and wealth preservation!23
After the regular Tuesday smackdown PMs are rallying again with gold @ $4k+.
The question for ETF traders is this a sucker's rally and will we turn back down to the 200-day MA by the end of the year as projected by a few respected analysts who got the mini crash in October?
Or is this the beginning of a seasonal rally and back to new highs?
The question for ETF traders is this a sucker's rally and will we turn back down to the 200-day MA by the end of the year as projected by a few respected analysts who got the mini crash in October?
Or is this the beginning of a seasonal rally and back to new highs?
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China Introduces New Exports Controls On Antimony, Tungsten And Silver
According to Trump, his big achievement a week ago when he announced the trade truce with China, was getting Beijing to agree to remove export limitations on rare earth minerals, which as most now know are so critical for US companies to make everything from cell phones, to cars, and military equipment. And yet, as discussed on a few occasions this week, it feels like the cracks in this latest trade deal are already starting to show, whether it is Beijing ordering Trump what he can't talk about, or quietly ring-fencing its domestic data center by banning US AI chips.And now, it appears that while China granted Trump a 1 year reprieve on rare earths, it is quietly tightening the export noose on other, just as important minerals.
According to the Global Times, China has introduced new export controls on silver, antimony, and tungsten.
China Introduces New Exports Controls On Antimony, Tungsten And Silver | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
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How to Build a Benchmark-Beating Global Stock Portfolio for 2026
Learn how I pick stocks to build portfolios that consistently beat the market — and how you can build your own 2026 “Beat the Benchmark” portfolio using the free version of SimplyWall.st.
𝐇𝐎𝐖 𝐓𝐎 𝐁𝐄𝐀𝐓 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐌𝐀𝐑𝐊𝐄𝐓 𝐈𝐍 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔In this video, I show you step-by-step how to build your own 2026 "Beat the Benchmark" portfolio using the free version of SimplyWall.st, my favourite stock analysis platform.
If you really want to check out the games and shenanigans they play with short selling and ETF's. It's no more Apparent than with the XRT Retail ETF. Now this seems to be very boring and WTH would they care about this ETF? Because it holds a decent number of Gamestop shares. The shares available bounce around like crazy. But that's not the kicker.
www.iborrowdesk.com
Its the total number of shares officially short AGAINST the actual number of shares. And that number fluctuates wildly.
Shows 21.7 million shares short. BUT
There are ONLY 2.05 million shares existing. Lol. That number also fluctuates biggly from 2-10 million
IBorrowDesk
www.iborrowdesk.com
Its the total number of shares officially short AGAINST the actual number of shares. And that number fluctuates wildly.
Shows 21.7 million shares short. BUT
| Market Cap 163.83 MM |
| EV - 185.91 MM |
| Shares Out. - 2.05 MM |
There are ONLY 2.05 million shares existing. Lol. That number also fluctuates biggly from 2-10 million
I don't think so. Not the end of the month or options exp. They have problems.
Maybe a small dip. I don't expect a major Mr. Slammy hammer swing.
See here is the Giant dilemma as I think it today. This announcement of stimmies and government back to work was to help save the banks. Normally, in years past they might have done more Rate Cuts, but that option has been virtually taken away by the market. Private equity and all of these bad, bad fake loans and credit are blowing up. Blackrock took a $150 million write off today on something they called fine a few weeks ago.
But Rate Cuts can't save the bankers this time either. Why? Because of the banking Repo risks at the end of October Right after the rate cut. It sent their ceiling Below what the market was actually willing to pay. So rate cuts just make it worse I think.
So this is the only option they have left, turning on the money spigots. Or at least threatening that move. Perhaps its better now that he's proposing sending them to people instead of just directly to the banks, but I think that's just a vote/face saving move.
But Rate Cuts can't save the bankers this time either. Why? Because of the banking Repo risks at the end of October Right after the rate cut. It sent their ceiling Below what the market was actually willing to pay. So rate cuts just make it worse I think.
So this is the only option they have left, turning on the money spigots. Or at least threatening that move. Perhaps its better now that he's proposing sending them to people instead of just directly to the banks, but I think that's just a vote/face saving move.