2025 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat
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Looks to me like things are breaking. JPY. Private credit. Unplanned Fed meeting. Of course, OpEx is also coming, so there is incentive for Mr. Slammy, but I think there is more to it than just the silver story.
Rafi explains fairly well here today Why BOTH the Japanese bonds are tanking AND the currency is tanking with it. Basically because their FED owns most of the debt as well.
The real problems are these private credit and other blow ups. EVERY single one has almost been Worst case scenario. Like the creditors not only held a bad asset there was litterally nothing there to even cover. They are just getting marked ZERO. That's pretty rare even in normal bankruptcy.
Just a follow up with another very good example from a David Morgan interview of Shawn from Dolly Varden.
Average price in silver of a home in his town (Vancouver) when he bought some silver during Covid.. 64,000 Oz of Silver. Now, its down to 16,000 Oz of SIlver.
I imagine the low/high to be around 100 oz of Silver. Do you really wanna sell that now?
Monday morning 11-24 (USA) in silver. This could be an interesting week.
Silver spot was on the rise in overnight trading in China (remaining at a premium to LBMA spot). The SGE reports a heavy outflow of silver vault stock last week, but the SFE reported a decent inflow of silver vault stock for today (Monday). One day doesn't make a trend, but maybe the LBMA starts delivering silver to China this week?
EFP spread (COMEX futures - LBMA spot) remains firmly in negative territory at ~$0.34 this morning. It would seem that London still needs more silver.
The backwardation in Indian futures is appeared to blow off some steam since Friday with the November contract now at ~$54.27/ozt and the December contract at ~$53.81/ozt. The November contract is now at ~$0.46/ozt premium to the December contract - it was ~$1.05/ozt Friday morning. It would seem that India is still looking for immediate delivery of physical silver.
It seems that in spite of the apparent stress in the LBMA silver stock, SLV is still managing to add another million shares available to borrow over the weekend. Is JPM playing games juggling the inventories of the various vaults under their control (SLV NYC, SLV London, COMEX house account, COMEX customer account, LBMA house account, LBMA customer account)?
Silver spot was on the rise in overnight trading in China (remaining at a premium to LBMA spot). The SGE reports a heavy outflow of silver vault stock last week, but the SFE reported a decent inflow of silver vault stock for today (Monday). One day doesn't make a trend, but maybe the LBMA starts delivering silver to China this week?
EFP spread (COMEX futures - LBMA spot) remains firmly in negative territory at ~$0.34 this morning. It would seem that London still needs more silver.
The backwardation in Indian futures is appeared to blow off some steam since Friday with the November contract now at ~$54.27/ozt and the December contract at ~$53.81/ozt. The November contract is now at ~$0.46/ozt premium to the December contract - it was ~$1.05/ozt Friday morning. It would seem that India is still looking for immediate delivery of physical silver.
It seems that in spite of the apparent stress in the LBMA silver stock, SLV is still managing to add another million shares available to borrow over the weekend. Is JPM playing games juggling the inventories of the various vaults under their control (SLV NYC, SLV London, COMEX house account, COMEX customer account, LBMA house account, LBMA customer account)?
Shoot that might even be a conservative projection. I thought I'd seen this pop up in my feed. ONE Ounce to a house is possible according to Ray Dalio. And I could see that happen. Gonna need an ocean to lose those houses.
This was obviously an AI theft from somewhere so I don't know where the source info was or if its even real. So take it for what its worth.
Viking
Yellow Jacket
- Messages
- 18,130
- Reaction score
- 10,915
- Points
- 288
for 30 years Japan borrowed at zero interest rates... printed endless Yen and shipped trillions in to US T bills...
Grandich breaks down the explosion of the "greatest carry trade in financial history," explaining how for 30 years, Japan's zero-interest policy artificially suppressed borrowing costs worldwide, fueling everything from cheap mortgages to sky-high stock multiples. "That single number just ended it," he states, revealing how the end of Japan's endless money printing is already impacting U.S. Treasury markets.
Japan Just Triggered Biggest Unwind in Financial History - THIS Changes Everything: Peter Grandich
"The invisible bid that's been propping up the entire developed world for a generation is vanishing in real time," warns financial strategist Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich & Company. In today's interview with Daniela Cambone, he details how Japan's seismic shift away from its three-decade-long role as the world's "money printer" is set to send shockwaves through the global economy.Grandich breaks down the explosion of the "greatest carry trade in financial history," explaining how for 30 years, Japan's zero-interest policy artificially suppressed borrowing costs worldwide, fueling everything from cheap mortgages to sky-high stock multiples. "That single number just ended it," he states, revealing how the end of Japan's endless money printing is already impacting U.S. Treasury markets.
Silver’s daily RSI tried to lose momentum last week, but it bounced off the 50 on Friday and has now again crossed above the moving average 
The double-bottom formed on October 27th and November 4th confirms support established on July 31st
Last time the daily RSI retested this line and found support, the price of silver ran up +50% from $36.22 to $54.36 over two and a half months
A move of similar magnitude from the bottom on November 4th would carry the price of silver to approximately $70/oz by mid-February 2026
Fibonacci extensions from the current correction suggest that the coming breakout will land the price between $69.87 - $72.44
This would be consistent with my call for $60.63 by Christmas, leaving plenty of time to realize the continuation
Fundamental conviction is reinforced by technical analysis.
The double-bottom formed on October 27th and November 4th confirms support established on July 31st
Last time the daily RSI retested this line and found support, the price of silver ran up +50% from $36.22 to $54.36 over two and a half months
A move of similar magnitude from the bottom on November 4th would carry the price of silver to approximately $70/oz by mid-February 2026
Fibonacci extensions from the current correction suggest that the coming breakout will land the price between $69.87 - $72.44
This would be consistent with my call for $60.63 by Christmas, leaving plenty of time to realize the continuation
Fundamental conviction is reinforced by technical analysis.
It's getting too expensive. You are better off collecting SS and staying retired.
- Messages
- 18,130
- Reaction score
- 10,915
- Points
- 288
FWIW
Nov 25, 2025
In a move that has stunned global markets and delighted advocates of hard assets, India has quietly detonated a monetary bombshell: the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is bringing silver back into the financial system. Beginning April 1, 2026, Indian banks will be authorized to accept silver as loan collateral. It’s the first modern recognition of silver as a monetary asset since the metal was gradually sidelined from global finance a century ago. But this is no symbolic gesture—it’s a calculated strategy that connects household wealth, national reserves, and geopolitical realignment under one glittering metal.
What makes this policy revolutionary is its structure. The RBI isn’t simply legalizing pawnshop-style lending; it is integrating silver directly into the banking system. This creates a two-layered mechanism—financial inclusion on the surface, and strategic monetary policy beneath.
thesilverindustry.substack.com
India’s 2026 Silver Bomb: The Great Remonetization
How India Is Turning Silver Into Money
The Silver AcademyNov 25, 2025
In a move that has stunned global markets and delighted advocates of hard assets, India has quietly detonated a monetary bombshell: the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is bringing silver back into the financial system. Beginning April 1, 2026, Indian banks will be authorized to accept silver as loan collateral. It’s the first modern recognition of silver as a monetary asset since the metal was gradually sidelined from global finance a century ago. But this is no symbolic gesture—it’s a calculated strategy that connects household wealth, national reserves, and geopolitical realignment under one glittering metal.
A Policy Hiding in Plain Sight
Announced in late 2025, the RBI’s new framework signals India’s official “remonetization” of silver. Under the plan, citizens can pledge up to 10 kilograms of silver jewelry or coins as collateral for personal or business loans, with banks able to lend up to 85 percent of the value. The collateral must be returned within seven days of repayment—an essential safeguard in a nation where trust in financial intermediaries can waver.What makes this policy revolutionary is its structure. The RBI isn’t simply legalizing pawnshop-style lending; it is integrating silver directly into the banking system. This creates a two-layered mechanism—financial inclusion on the surface, and strategic monetary policy beneath.
India’s 2026 Silver Bomb: The Great Remonetization
How India Is Turning Silver Into Money
thesilverindustry.substack.com
Francis is fired up so I'll give him a share.
- Messages
- 18,130
- Reaction score
- 10,915
- Points
- 288
- Messages
- 18,130
- Reaction score
- 10,915
- Points
- 288
My Chinese follower shared this:
Rumor out of China is that an AP at the COMEX (or at the LBMA, or both) stood for delivery of 400 million Troy Ounces (around 12,441 metric tons) of physical #Silver. Rather than default the Banksters PULLED THE PLUG, and they are now trying to figure out what to do…
- Messages
- 18,130
- Reaction score
- 10,915
- Points
- 288
OPINION: SILVER HITS $55/OZ, AND FIAT MONEY IS TREMBLINGThe white metal is in full breakout mode.
$55 today, up another 3.15% like it’s late for the moon. Year-to-date: +90%.
Why now?
Industrial demand is exploding (solar alone is eating almost all new supply by 2030).
Monetary chaos: $3T deficits, Fed cutting into 3% inflation, dollar weaponization backfiring.
Supply in terminal decline, peak silver was years ago.
Gold/silver ratio crashed from 120:1 to 49:1. Still room to run.
Investment money is finally waking up and squeezing shorts.
This isn’t a pump. This is fundamentals detonating.
The greatest wealth transfer in history isn't crypto or tech stocks.
It's hard money eating fiat alive while everyone else is asleep at the wheel.
Own real assets or get absolutely left behind. Silver is screaming the truth the system doesn't want you to hear: Fiat Money is dying.
And Precious metals are the canary that's now singing at the top of its lungs.
Load the boat.
Source: TradingView, Silver Institute, Kobeissi Letter
Viking
Yellow Jacket
- Messages
- 18,130
- Reaction score
- 10,915
- Points
- 288
Never-Had-A-Boss
economy is falling apart. After years of negligible interest rates, inflation in
Japan is running rampant and Japan needs to raise rates to keep it under
control. But they can’t because the Japanese are broke, without recourse—
soon to be the thorn to pop the US dollar bubble?
How it worked for decades was Japan investing its dollar reserves, trade
surplus into US paper, that proved beneficial to both nations. To where to-
day, Japan has more than $1T in US bonds. Now they need those dollars to
pump into their own economy. But that is no easy feat. Were they to sell
rapidly, the dollar/US economy could collapse—wreaking havoc on imports
and exports—jeopardizing the entire global economy.
Fact is, no matter what happens, goods from Japan are going nowhere
but up in price—with dire consequences globally. Flights from Japan for
2026 are to be cut, 20%. Meanwhile, the new, Trump cloned, Japanese
leader, threatens war with China.
Back in the States, Bessent is lying about the Japanese relationship to the
US, depicting a bed of roses. When asked, he resorts to absurdities: ‘It’s not
the dollar going down—it’s other currieries going up.’ C’mon man, what you
take us for?
With the end of the petrodollar, the US has come up with a brilliant plan
that will ultimately fail—StableCoin. As when the petrodollar pushed the
world into treasuries, the plan is for StableCoin to do the same. For the plan
to work, a couple of things have to happen: StableCoin needs to be global
because the US only has $5T in savings—not enough to balance-out $38T
of debt. So, for the massive amount needed for the Genius Act to pan out as
genius—the rest of the word will have to get on board, as they did with the
petrodollar, willing to buy-into the world’s most liquid asset, US Treasuries.
What’s the problem for StableCoin and the dollar? The world is being
asked to play both ends against the middle. What I mean by that is Stable-
Coin on one end, the dollar on the other, and, in the middle, global percep-
tion over viability for the US economy.
Can StableCoin replace the petrodollar? Is the requisite global faith there
about the US economy? Will they flock into StableCoin, knowing the dollar
is weaponized—not in their favor—with a precedent to have their assets
(treasuries), seized, and bared from the Swift system—at US whim? Are
they in fear of the US after the Russian Forex theft?
They are and are wary to the point that 1/3 of all trade is now done in the
yuan, which is exchangeable for gold. On top of that, the world is witnessing
a rise in the US deficit, to $689B, 18%, year on year—the worst rise in histo-
ry. The world knows that all the blather about US spending cuts was simply
that. Elon’s DOGE savings resulted in making it worse.
No matter the extent to which Bessent misinforms, Trump’s Wide World of
Shake down only serves to alienate the US across the globe. The world is
going to give Trump $17T, taken directly out of their stressed economies?
Naw, they’re just messing with him. There’s no written agreements, just a
wink and a handshake. And maybe a hope that before they have to ante up,
Trump will be gone/dead—or the US economy will have collapsed.
The dollar Ponzi rests on the US prevailing as the reserve currency,
unipolar hegemony—which has a zero chance. Underlying that plan is for
the US to be the big winner in AI, which cannot happen because China has
the manufacturing base needed to implement AI, cheap electricity to run it,
and is offering its AI protocols as open-source.
Unless the US backs off, and it will not, this ends in war—just as it has
each 70 years. End of empire, ends in world war—by default. And unlike
days past, this confrontation, considering the hubris of Israel/US, measured
against the might of China/Russia/Iran/BRICs, portends something unimag-
inable for the world—especially for a complacent US population.
If you care to be reminded just how nefarious the West is, think on how
long Russia (Soviet Union), has been cast as a subhuman enemy—not mat-
ter what peace proposals they put forth. Prior to WW2, Stalin, before any
nonaggression treaty with Nazi Germany, offered France/Britain a mutual
defense agreement where, if one were attacked by Germany, the others
would come with military aid—declaring war on Germany.
The West refused, and we know the history from there. For a geopolitical
parallel now for what happened prior to WW2, recall the war between the
Soviet Union/Finland. Like Ukraine (before NATO/West earmarked more
than a million Ukrainians to die), Finland/Russia had it all but settled, but
France/Germany worked to keep that war going. Do you see any parallels?
In a blow to US credibility, Ukrainian troops contemplate a march on Kiev.
With the contention between StableCoin/US asset-dumping, how is that
playing-out in the States? What does it mean when the perennial haters of
gold, Wall Street, recommends a portfolio of 25% gold? It reflects fear for
the US economy/dollar has finally reached the ears of monied interests—
an admission that things are not well.
Wall Street is aware of the most massive drop in home prices ever listed
on Zillow (larger than 2008). The average home price-cut is $25K in a mar-
ket where it’s mainly rich buyers. Some cities are seeing price drops of
$50K. This is now a buyer’s market—but with most Americans are still
priced out of the market. Why is that the case?
With little or no savings, those who do buy use FHA with a requirement of
3% down. When they are laid-off and can no longer pay, they simply walk
away, such that foreclosures are up 23%, year on year. And, if they can ser-
vice the mortgage, other costs are driving them out. The average price of
home insurance now amounts to almost 10% of mortgage payments—the
highest price in recorded history. And, making it worse, homeowners insur-
ance is projected to rise 8% a year. This does not end well.
The elephant in the room is precious metals. We waited for decades for
the gold/silver ration to come down. Now it has and is. To put this into some
perspective, I began buying silver, decades back, at $8 an ounce. Today, at
one point, silver was up $3.56—rising almost half over one day of what I
payed for my first purchases. This marks the turn.
With the US (West), economic situation worsening as we speak, where is
this going? Have we reached the abyss? Will we be looking at $200 silver,
$10K gold in 2026?
Get my articles by email with a request, or comment:
erik@neverhadaboss.com. Thank you.
Dollar Ponzi—Revealed
If you’re thinking of buying a new Honda, best do it now. The Japaneseeconomy is falling apart. After years of negligible interest rates, inflation in
Japan is running rampant and Japan needs to raise rates to keep it under
control. But they can’t because the Japanese are broke, without recourse—
soon to be the thorn to pop the US dollar bubble?
How it worked for decades was Japan investing its dollar reserves, trade
surplus into US paper, that proved beneficial to both nations. To where to-
day, Japan has more than $1T in US bonds. Now they need those dollars to
pump into their own economy. But that is no easy feat. Were they to sell
rapidly, the dollar/US economy could collapse—wreaking havoc on imports
and exports—jeopardizing the entire global economy.
Fact is, no matter what happens, goods from Japan are going nowhere
but up in price—with dire consequences globally. Flights from Japan for
2026 are to be cut, 20%. Meanwhile, the new, Trump cloned, Japanese
leader, threatens war with China.
Back in the States, Bessent is lying about the Japanese relationship to the
US, depicting a bed of roses. When asked, he resorts to absurdities: ‘It’s not
the dollar going down—it’s other currieries going up.’ C’mon man, what you
take us for?
With the end of the petrodollar, the US has come up with a brilliant plan
that will ultimately fail—StableCoin. As when the petrodollar pushed the
world into treasuries, the plan is for StableCoin to do the same. For the plan
to work, a couple of things have to happen: StableCoin needs to be global
because the US only has $5T in savings—not enough to balance-out $38T
of debt. So, for the massive amount needed for the Genius Act to pan out as
genius—the rest of the word will have to get on board, as they did with the
petrodollar, willing to buy-into the world’s most liquid asset, US Treasuries.
What’s the problem for StableCoin and the dollar? The world is being
asked to play both ends against the middle. What I mean by that is Stable-
Coin on one end, the dollar on the other, and, in the middle, global percep-
tion over viability for the US economy.
Can StableCoin replace the petrodollar? Is the requisite global faith there
about the US economy? Will they flock into StableCoin, knowing the dollar
is weaponized—not in their favor—with a precedent to have their assets
(treasuries), seized, and bared from the Swift system—at US whim? Are
they in fear of the US after the Russian Forex theft?
They are and are wary to the point that 1/3 of all trade is now done in the
yuan, which is exchangeable for gold. On top of that, the world is witnessing
a rise in the US deficit, to $689B, 18%, year on year—the worst rise in histo-
ry. The world knows that all the blather about US spending cuts was simply
that. Elon’s DOGE savings resulted in making it worse.
No matter the extent to which Bessent misinforms, Trump’s Wide World of
Shake down only serves to alienate the US across the globe. The world is
going to give Trump $17T, taken directly out of their stressed economies?
Naw, they’re just messing with him. There’s no written agreements, just a
wink and a handshake. And maybe a hope that before they have to ante up,
Trump will be gone/dead—or the US economy will have collapsed.
The dollar Ponzi rests on the US prevailing as the reserve currency,
unipolar hegemony—which has a zero chance. Underlying that plan is for
the US to be the big winner in AI, which cannot happen because China has
the manufacturing base needed to implement AI, cheap electricity to run it,
and is offering its AI protocols as open-source.
Unless the US backs off, and it will not, this ends in war—just as it has
each 70 years. End of empire, ends in world war—by default. And unlike
days past, this confrontation, considering the hubris of Israel/US, measured
against the might of China/Russia/Iran/BRICs, portends something unimag-
inable for the world—especially for a complacent US population.
If you care to be reminded just how nefarious the West is, think on how
long Russia (Soviet Union), has been cast as a subhuman enemy—not mat-
ter what peace proposals they put forth. Prior to WW2, Stalin, before any
nonaggression treaty with Nazi Germany, offered France/Britain a mutual
defense agreement where, if one were attacked by Germany, the others
would come with military aid—declaring war on Germany.
The West refused, and we know the history from there. For a geopolitical
parallel now for what happened prior to WW2, recall the war between the
Soviet Union/Finland. Like Ukraine (before NATO/West earmarked more
than a million Ukrainians to die), Finland/Russia had it all but settled, but
France/Germany worked to keep that war going. Do you see any parallels?
In a blow to US credibility, Ukrainian troops contemplate a march on Kiev.
With the contention between StableCoin/US asset-dumping, how is that
playing-out in the States? What does it mean when the perennial haters of
gold, Wall Street, recommends a portfolio of 25% gold? It reflects fear for
the US economy/dollar has finally reached the ears of monied interests—
an admission that things are not well.
Wall Street is aware of the most massive drop in home prices ever listed
on Zillow (larger than 2008). The average home price-cut is $25K in a mar-
ket where it’s mainly rich buyers. Some cities are seeing price drops of
$50K. This is now a buyer’s market—but with most Americans are still
priced out of the market. Why is that the case?
With little or no savings, those who do buy use FHA with a requirement of
3% down. When they are laid-off and can no longer pay, they simply walk
away, such that foreclosures are up 23%, year on year. And, if they can ser-
vice the mortgage, other costs are driving them out. The average price of
home insurance now amounts to almost 10% of mortgage payments—the
highest price in recorded history. And, making it worse, homeowners insur-
ance is projected to rise 8% a year. This does not end well.
The elephant in the room is precious metals. We waited for decades for
the gold/silver ration to come down. Now it has and is. To put this into some
perspective, I began buying silver, decades back, at $8 an ounce. Today, at
one point, silver was up $3.56—rising almost half over one day of what I
payed for my first purchases. This marks the turn.
With the US (West), economic situation worsening as we speak, where is
this going? Have we reached the abyss? Will we be looking at $200 silver,
$10K gold in 2026?
Get my articles by email with a request, or comment:
erik@neverhadaboss.com. Thank you.
I said like many others that Japan was going to trigger the next financial meltdown.
We broke upward resistance in PMs on Friday, but need another day or two to follow through. Watch what PMs do on Monday. Mr. Slammy could be back on Sunday night or Tuesday at the latest. If we are up then new highs in gold in December maybe and the silver that nobody wanted to buy in 2022 will be $60.
We broke upward resistance in PMs on Friday, but need another day or two to follow through. Watch what PMs do on Monday. Mr. Slammy could be back on Sunday night or Tuesday at the latest. If we are up then new highs in gold in December maybe and the silver that nobody wanted to buy in 2022 will be $60.
Cigarlover
Yellow Jacket
- Messages
- 1,679
- Reaction score
- 1,937
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- 283
Good moves on Friday but they need to confirm on Monday. A close above Fridays highs will confirm. Silver ll probably come back down after confirming and retest the breakout level of 34.65 or whatever it was. From there we can march higher.
As for Japan, are the CB's really going to let them destroy the world for merely a trillion? Thats like 2% of the total US debt nowadays. Not that much in comparison. CB's will clean up that mess.
As for Japan, are the CB's really going to let them destroy the world for merely a trillion? Thats like 2% of the total US debt nowadays. Not that much in comparison. CB's will clean up that mess.
Viking
Yellow Jacket
That is the Chinese government ordering its national airlines to cut service to Japan by 20% because the new Japanese prime minister made a comment about Taiwan.
"The Chinese government has extended its mandate requiring the country's airlines to reduce services to Japan through March 2026"
Taiwan used to be part of Japan. Chinese also want the Ryukyu Islands.