2025 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat
- Thread starter pmbug
- Start date
Welcome to the Precious Metals Bug Forums
Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more.
Why not register an account and join the discussions? When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no Google ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!
Yes, yes it is. Complete FUBAR.
So I can make a profit by buying on the market and then stand for delivery... Cool, cool. Now all I need is like a Billion to make it happen.
- Messages
- 529
- Reaction score
- 441
- Points
- 238
It seems to me that the COMEX settlement with the traders is just inviting them to do it again. Not that I'm complaining about it.
Essentially yes. That is a chart of the Yields so as that goes up it means the prices of the Bonds are going down. So as an asset price goes down it gets more attractive to buy.
Now, Japan is a unique bond market. There has essentially been very little demand for their bonds for decades. Their Central Bank however, kept rates low and ended up with a Huge chunk of their own bonds. Upwards of 60% from random memory.
Cigarlover
Yellow Jacket
- Messages
- 1,679
- Reaction score
- 1,937
- Points
- 283
Exactly what I been saying all along. Those are the rules of the game. They can cash settle anytime they want. Total extra cost to cash settle those contracts was around 55 million. A rounding error to those big players that are shorting in that size. Because of who they are they can just keep doing this over and over again. If they go broke and somehow loses trillions then the fed gov steps in and reloads them so they can keep the game going.
And if the FED itself goes broke? They don't have infinite money. The Japanese came as close to that as I can imagine and that is ending now.
- Messages
- 18,130
- Reaction score
- 10,915
- Points
- 288
Headed for a Derivative Meltdown – Bill Holter
By Greg Hunter On December 2, 2025In closing, Holter warns, “The problem is there is very little collateral left. Everything has been borrowed against already." Holter is not alone in his thinking about huge risk in the system. It appears billionaire investors Jeff Gundlach and Ray Dalio agree with Holter and they are warning of liquidity problems. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/two-investing-titans-issue-same-warning For the first time in their successful careers, they are both buying physical gold.
Not sure I agree with his police work there, Lou. The restraint on selling <> confidence
"derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction" - Unca Warren
Cigarlover
Yellow Jacket
- Messages
- 1,679
- Reaction score
- 1,937
- Points
- 283
The yen isn't the reserve currency. For now there is no replacement for the dollar so not sure the Gov can go broke. On the other hand, once you run up a trillion in debt you are essentially broke. How long can this Ponzi scheme last? No idea. Do we really want to see the end to the dollar? Most of us here would probably be ok. Not sure about the other 98% of the population though and when they get desperate, that's when things get interesting.
So for now they will continue to print and get away with it, 20 years from now, who knows???
- Messages
- 18,130
- Reaction score
- 10,915
- Points
- 288
The million dollar question!
Holter says a failure to deliver will start a cascading event. There are two sides to a contract. What is the value of a contract that can't deliver?
- Messages
- 18,130
- Reaction score
- 10,915
- Points
- 288
Italy to SEIZE $300 Billion in Gold as Debt Crisis Explodes - Tether Already Did It!
Tether recently added 26 tons of gold in Q3 alone, bringing its holdings to 116 tons—surpassing the reserves of several central banks, including Turkey, Kazakhstan, and Brazil. “The danger is if any one of these other assets drops to… zero… they're not covering one to one,” warns Clive Thompson, retired Managing Director of Union Bancaire Privée. In this episode, Daniela Combone sits down with Thompson to dissect Tether’s $14 billion gold hoard, explore why the stablecoin giant continues snapping up bullion while its Treasury holdings lag behind its liabilities, and discuss whether this is a savvy hedge or a signal of deeper cracks in the financial system.This is the key. And it doesn't even have to be a big one, any derivative will do it.
Cigarlover
Yellow Jacket
- Messages
- 1,679
- Reaction score
- 1,937
- Points
- 283
Since they just settled contracts with dollars the value appears to be the contract price plus 1.775 an oz. I am assuming they paid because those contracts wanted to stand for delivery.
The question then becomes could they have delivered if the cash offer was not accepted? That sort of depends on who was doing the shorting and if they were naked. More than likely it was JPM and they have 100's of millions of ounces they can short against.
I've heard figures from $300 TRILLION to $1 QUADRILLION of Derivatives sloshing around the World in the Financial Markets
The Yen-Carry Trade ( $1.7 TRILLION Market ) is cracking & about to implode. When the JPY 10 yr rate hit 1.7% reports were coming out about the immanent collapse of the Yen-Carry Trade. Well the JPY 10 yr is NOW sitting at 1.952%
WHEN it crosses 2% ( & the FED lowers their rate by .25% in December ) that could be the TRIGGER for a Financial ImplosionIf Holter is right & a Failure to Deliver starts a Cascade of failures into the Markets, the whole rotten to the core shitty Financial Edifice may come Crashing Down
a Puke so bad, everything crashes.Silver/Gold will drop, but will stay tall above the final Rotten Crash. I believe so because the BRICS + have just announced their " UNIT ", backed by 40% GOLD as their trading settlement mechanism
The HUGE tell is the 40% GOLD backing, this where the " TRUST " comes into play. What is the the backing of the USA Reserve Currency ? USA DEBT
The USA is Broke/Insolvent/Bankruptcy/Ponzi Scheme that's fast approaching 
it's use by date.As the old Chinese curse goes " May u live in interesting times ". I think the fast approaching times are about to get very interesting.
- Messages
- 18,130
- Reaction score
- 10,915
- Points
- 288
They're trying...
Why the Cartel Bullion Banks Continue to Ruthlessly Smash the Price of Silver Every Time It Nears $60
It's not the silver, its the derivatives!
Wednesday night into Thursday, the silver market experienced 6 vertical smash-downs as silver prices crept up towards $60.
The most blatant attack occurred this morning, after silver had closed ABOVE $60/oz in Chinese trading. The bullion banks went to work as soon as London opened, but silver prices wouldn't stay down.
As silver started to re-accelerate to the upside, and neared the critical $60/oz level, the bullion banks unleashed their fury yet again.
Prices were smashed from $59.895 to $58.47 on MASSIVE volume.
It is clear that the bullion banks have drawn a line in the sand at $60, & are defending this level much more strongly than even the all-time high of $49.45.
Does something BREAK with #silver prices above $60/oz? Is that something related to the derivatives market?
Silver Is the Achilles’ Heel of the Fractional-Reserve Precious Metals Paper Market
The COMEX silver futures market is leveraged anywhere from 100:1 to 300:1 in real metal terms.
There are typically only 80–120 million ounces of registered (deliverable) silver in the entire COMEX warehouse system, yet open interest regularly exceeds 800 million to 1 billion ounces when measured in total contracts.
The entire pricing structure of the world’s silver market is therefore built on a tiny sliver of physical metal backing an ocean of paper claims.
If silver ever broke out and stayed above $60, $75, or $100, the physical delivery demands would explode.
Miners, industrials, jewelers, and investors would stand for delivery in unprecedented size, and the vaults could be drained in weeks.
That would expose the fractional-reserve fraud for what it is and force a settlement at prices multiples higher than today.
The bullion banks cannot allow that contagion to start. It's all about preserving the current global monetary system that's run & controlled by a few elite bankers.
A Derivatives Chain Reaction That Threatens the Entire System
The same banks that dominate COMEX short positions also run massive OTC precious-metals derivatives books for clients (hedge funds, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, mining companies).
Hundreds of billions (some estimates say trillions) in notional value of swaps, leases, forwards, and options are priced off the COMEX/LBMA spot price.
A violent short-covering squeeze in silver would reprice that entire derivatives stack overnight.
The banks would face mark-to-market losses measured in tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars, losses that would ripple through their prime brokerage units and potentially require taxpayer bailouts again.
Keeping silver suppressed is literally a systemic risk issue for them.
But while the bullion banks defend the $60 level like its the Alamo, silver continues to relentlessly grind higher every time China opens.
Forget the COMEX and the globex this afternoon and Sunday night.
Keep an eye on Shanghai when trading resumes next week. If China pushes the price of silver to $62 or $63, the bullion banks won't have enough fingers to stick in the dam to prevent the flood of silver demand from overwhelming their suppression schemes.
Why the Cartel Bullion Banks Continue to Ruthlessly Smash the Price of Silver Every Time It Nears $60It's not the silver, its the derivatives!
Wednesday night into Thursday, the silver market experienced 6 vertical smash-downs as silver prices crept up towards $60.
The most blatant attack occurred this morning, after silver had closed ABOVE $60/oz in Chinese trading. The bullion banks went to work as soon as London opened, but silver prices wouldn't stay down.
As silver started to re-accelerate to the upside, and neared the critical $60/oz level, the bullion banks unleashed their fury yet again.
Prices were smashed from $59.895 to $58.47 on MASSIVE volume.
It is clear that the bullion banks have drawn a line in the sand at $60, & are defending this level much more strongly than even the all-time high of $49.45.
Does something BREAK with #silver prices above $60/oz? Is that something related to the derivatives market?
Silver Is the Achilles’ Heel of the Fractional-Reserve Precious Metals Paper Market
The COMEX silver futures market is leveraged anywhere from 100:1 to 300:1 in real metal terms.
There are typically only 80–120 million ounces of registered (deliverable) silver in the entire COMEX warehouse system, yet open interest regularly exceeds 800 million to 1 billion ounces when measured in total contracts.
The entire pricing structure of the world’s silver market is therefore built on a tiny sliver of physical metal backing an ocean of paper claims.
If silver ever broke out and stayed above $60, $75, or $100, the physical delivery demands would explode.
Miners, industrials, jewelers, and investors would stand for delivery in unprecedented size, and the vaults could be drained in weeks.
That would expose the fractional-reserve fraud for what it is and force a settlement at prices multiples higher than today.
The bullion banks cannot allow that contagion to start. It's all about preserving the current global monetary system that's run & controlled by a few elite bankers.
A Derivatives Chain Reaction That Threatens the Entire System
The same banks that dominate COMEX short positions also run massive OTC precious-metals derivatives books for clients (hedge funds, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, mining companies).
Hundreds of billions (some estimates say trillions) in notional value of swaps, leases, forwards, and options are priced off the COMEX/LBMA spot price.
A violent short-covering squeeze in silver would reprice that entire derivatives stack overnight.
The banks would face mark-to-market losses measured in tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars, losses that would ripple through their prime brokerage units and potentially require taxpayer bailouts again.
Keeping silver suppressed is literally a systemic risk issue for them.
But while the bullion banks defend the $60 level like its the Alamo, silver continues to relentlessly grind higher every time China opens.
Forget the COMEX and the globex this afternoon and Sunday night.
Keep an eye on Shanghai when trading resumes next week. If China pushes the price of silver to $62 or $63, the bullion banks won't have enough fingers to stick in the dam to prevent the flood of silver demand from overwhelming their suppression schemes.