Tell that to Scrooge McDuck.
2025 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat
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The "Ghost Inventory" Is Gone. Silver Enters Price Discovery | IT HAPPENED: Silver Broke $59
The $59 barrier has fallen. The banking cartel’s line in the sand has evaporated. As of December 9, 2025, silver has entered a phase of "Price Discovery" that we haven't seen in 45 years. The mainstream media is calling this a bubble, but the math tells a different story: we are watching the result of a 1.1 billion ounce physical deficit that has finally broken the paper market.In this video, we expose the "Vacuum Effect"—the technical and physical void that now exists between $59 and $100. We break down the specific data points proving that the global "slush fund" of silver inventory is empty, having been consumed by the "Solar Vortex" and the "Indian Whale."
We analyze why the shift to TOPCon solar technology has made industrial silver demand completely inelastic, meaning manufacturers will keep buying regardless of price. We also detail the massive wealth transfer that occurred when India drained Western vaults in 2024, leaving the COMEX and LBMA with nothing but paper promises.
This is not a drill. The "Ghost Silver" is gone. The buffer is zero. And with no overhead resistance remaining, the path to triple-digit silver is wide open.
In this video, we cover:
The 1.1 Billion Ounce Deficit: How the world consumed over a billion more ounces than it mined since 2021, wiping out the surface buffer.
The $59 Breakout: Why crossing this specific price level triggers a "Blue Sky" event with no technical sellers left.
The Solar Vortex: How the shift from PERC to TOPCon cells has increased silver usage per watt, making demand impossible to destroy.
The Indian Whale: The massive 2024 import data showing how the East bought the bottom while the West sold the top.
The $100 Roadmap: Why inflation-adjusted metrics point to $100 as the next logical psychological and technical target.
If you are waiting for a dip to buy, you might be waiting forever. The exit doors to the physical market are closing.
Sources & References
The Structural Deficit (Silver Institute)
2024 marked the 4th consecutive year of structural deficit (215.3M oz projected). Cumulative deficits from 2021-2025 have wiped out surface surpluses.
Silver Aiding New Medical Technologies
(Washington, D.C. – June 18, 2013) Recent advances in biotechnology have brought a focus on silver’s centuries-old role in medicine; that of acting as an important weapon in the fight against infection and disease. Silver is a critical element in bandages used to treat wounds and reduce the...
www.silverinstitute.org
India’s Record Imports (Reuters)
In February 2024 alone, India imported a record 2,295 metric tons (~73M oz) of silver, signaling a massive shift of physical metal from West to East.
Solar Intensity Increase (TOPCon Technology)
The global shift from PERC to TOPCon and HJT solar cells has increased silver consumption per watt, creating inelastic industrial demand.
pv magazine International: News from the photovoltaic and storage industry: market trends, technological advancements, expert commentary, and more.
News from the photovoltaic and storage industry: market trends, technological advancements, expert commentary, and more.
LBMA Vault Data
London silver vault holdings have seen historic declines from their 2021 peaks as metal flows to Asia and industrial users.
Inflation Adjusted Highs (BLS)
Adjusting the 1980 high of $50/oz for CPI inflation places the real all-time high between $150 and $170 in today's currency.
1980 was a statistical anomaly that held for a very short time. The COMEX changed the rules to prevent the Hunts from taking over the silver.market. There were no other options until now.
Price.discovery will be found in the physical markets unless the bank and hedge fund shorts want to sustain infinite losses.
If you want more solver you cannot simply mine it like drilling for oil. Most.silver is byproduct from gold amd copper mining. It takes years to start a mine.
What you see in your ha d is what you get.
Price.discovery will be found in the physical markets unless the bank and hedge fund shorts want to sustain infinite losses.
If you want more solver you cannot simply mine it like drilling for oil. Most.silver is byproduct from gold amd copper mining. It takes years to start a mine.
What you see in your ha d is what you get.
Seems that Dr. Potassium's X posts just don't embed properly. Click this post for annotated price chart:
Silver — $61.37
Momentum may take this move all the way to $65.18
Could see some turbulence between $62.71-$63.71 — but it shouldn’t be much or last long.
Got the hard bounce off the bottom of the green range ($57.01) on December 4th, so the first white arrow already happened “ahead of schedule.”
If we had seen a pullback off $60.63, it would likely have been to the top of the range at $58.53 — but it isn’t necessary that it do so. If it simply leaves $60.63 behind — as it appears to be doing — $65.18 is the next checkpoint.
Up-only for now
Viking
Yellow Jacket
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5 Levels of SILVER Wealth: Monkey to King Kong
Silver is exploding — and the real silver price story is only just beginning. Potentially it will make many silver stacking enthusiasts into silver millionaires.In this video, I break down the 5 Levels of Silver Wealth, show you where your stack really ranks, and explain why even small silver holdings are rarer than most people think. Whether you're new to silver stacking or a long-time stacker, this will completely change how you view your stack.
We’ll cover:
• The true rarity of silver ownership
• Why the price of silver today doesn’t reflect real economic value
• How many people in the world actually stack silver
• What 1 oz → 100,000 oz really means in historical and modern terms
• Why silver made a 100% run last year — and why it’s just getting warmed up
• How to position yourself before the next major silver price move
Silver has been money for thousands of years. Today it’s one of the most undervalued, under-owned, and misunderstood assets on the planet. If you’re stacking silver for wealth protection or long-term upside, this video is for you.
Chapters
00:00 – Even Small Stacks = Silver Rich
00:54 – How Many People Actually Stack Silver
01:46 – Ancient World Silver: Roman Empire Debasement
02:35 – Introducing the Silver Wealth Pyramid
03:17 – Level 1: The Small Monkey (1–250 oz)
04:04 – Level 2: The Orangutan (250–1,000 oz)
04:59 – Level 3: The Chimpanzee (1,000–3,000 oz)
05:53 – Level 4: The Silverback Gorilla (3,000–10,000 oz)
06:37 – Level 5: King Kong Status (10,000–100,000 oz)
07:34 – Psychological Value of Silver Explained
09:15 – What Your Stack Really Means
Viking
Yellow Jacket
5 Levels of SILVER Wealth: Monkey to King Kong
Silver is exploding — and the real silver price story is only just beginning. Potentially it will make many silver stacking enthusiasts into silver millionaires.
In this video, I break down the 5 Levels of Silver Wealth, show you where your stack really ranks, and explain why even small silver holdings are rarer than most people think. Whether you're new to silver stacking or a long-time stacker, this will completely change how you view your stack.
We’ll cover:
• The true rarity of silver ownership
• Why the price of silver today doesn’t reflect real economic value
• How many people in the world actually stack silver
• What 1 oz → 100,000 oz really means in historical and modern terms
• Why silver made a 100% run last year — and why it’s just getting warmed up
• How to position yourself before the next major silver price move
Silver has been money for thousands of years. Today it’s one of the most undervalued, under-owned, and misunderstood assets on the planet. If you’re stacking silver for wealth protection or long-term upside, this video is for you.
Chapters
00:00 – Even Small Stacks = Silver Rich
00:54 – How Many People Actually Stack Silver
01:46 – Ancient World Silver: Roman Empire Debasement
02:35 – Introducing the Silver Wealth Pyramid
03:17 – Level 1: The Small Monkey (1–250 oz)
04:04 – Level 2: The Orangutan (250–1,000 oz)
04:59 – Level 3: The Chimpanzee (1,000–3,000 oz)
05:53 – Level 4: The Silverback Gorilla (3,000–10,000 oz)
06:37 – Level 5: King Kong Status (10,000–100,000 oz)
07:34 – Psychological Value of Silver Explained
09:15 – What Your Stack Really Means
Before nickndfl introduced me to hookers and blow, I was King Kong. Now I just feel like King Kong.
CME raised margins for COMEX silver today (see ~7 posts up - #1211).
Cigarlover
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All things considered, not a bad week. Silver was getting away from the 20 day and looking a little overbought so a pullback wasn't unexpected and then when they raised margin requirements it was almost a sure thing. Still higher highs and if we come back to the 20 day then higher lows and ready for the next leg up to 70.
Someone lit a fire under Jr's as well. After holding one of my positions for 5 years it finally turned green yesterday.
Someone lit a fire under Jr's as well. After holding one of my positions for 5 years it finally turned green yesterday.
SILVER was doing a bit of a " Runaway " move & they decided to hit the breaks Hard.
Notice that Gold finished up on the Day/Week, so Silver was stepped on to contain the " Runaway ".
I don't consider Silver at $61.73 USD in any way to be a negative.
As I posted earlier, now that Silver has broken substantially thru the $60 USD Barrier, it's solid in peoples psychology that Silver is now an established plus $60
Just my
but I think that Silver has yet to find it's True Market price. I think that price will be much higher given 5 years of Structural Supply Deficits & with no forecast increase in mining supply in the short to medium term.I saw this a while ago & think it's becoming a truism :- " There is a shortage of Silver at the current price, but no shortage of Silver a the right higher price ".
Time & the market
will reveal the " Right Higher Price "
Viking
Yellow Jacket
I could have told y'all there was going to be a pullback today. I bought some yesterday.
Only 5 Banks Remain Short Silver (This has NEVER Happened!) | Ed Steer
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China, Silver, and the Politics of Reputation
There is a tendency to look at recent developments in the silver market as a series of unrelated events: tightening conditions at the LBMA, unusual metal flows, India taking delivery, China stepping back, JP Morgan restricting access to deliverable inventory, and even the CME shutdown of futures trading. When viewed in isolation, these appear disparate. When viewed together, they form a coherent pattern that aligns closely with China’s long-standing approach to global economic participation and reputation management.
This is an attempt to understand intent, incentives, and behavior, particularly from a state actor that has demonstrated consistency over the past fifteen years.
vblgoldfix.substack.com
There is a tendency to look at recent developments in the silver market as a series of unrelated events: tightening conditions at the LBMA, unusual metal flows, India taking delivery, China stepping back, JP Morgan restricting access to deliverable inventory, and even the CME shutdown of futures trading. When viewed in isolation, these appear disparate. When viewed together, they form a coherent pattern that aligns closely with China’s long-standing approach to global economic participation and reputation management.
This is an attempt to understand intent, incentives, and behavior, particularly from a state actor that has demonstrated consistency over the past fifteen years.
China's Silver-Play Decoded
Why Have China influencers suddenly turned Bearish on Silver?
vblgoldfix.substack.com
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read or listen to video at link...
Former Wall Street money manager and financial analyst Ed Dowd of PhinanceTechnologies.com warned in September we were at the “Beginning of Panic Rate Cut Cycle.” Since that prediction, the Fed has cut interest rates three times. Looks like Dowd called it correctly. So, when does the panic kick in? Dowd says, “The panic kicks in when there is some sort of banking wobble or stock market wobble, which is in the process of setting up. Private credit is the first to show problems. We had Tricolor Holdings (subprime auto lending bankruptcy) go poof. We had First Brands (bankruptcy) go poof. This is all private credit. We have had other lenders like PrimaLend (bankruptcy) starting to go poof. Private credit is just like subprime. It not a very big part of the Jenga credit chain, but it’s enough to start a daisy chain of knock-on effects. So, this is where we are, at the beginning of the credit destruction cycle. We are seeing consumer credit card delinquencies nearing all-time highs, auto loan delinquencies and, next up, we will be seeing mortgage delinquencies. People stop paying their credit cards first, then their auto loans and stop paying on their homes last. As the layoffs accelerate, and we are already seeing more high-profile layoffs at Amazon, UPS and you name it, once those begin, we will be seeing higher delinquency rates.”
usawatchdog.com
At the Beginning of Credit Destruction Cycle – Ed Dowd
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.comFormer Wall Street money manager and financial analyst Ed Dowd of PhinanceTechnologies.com warned in September we were at the “Beginning of Panic Rate Cut Cycle.” Since that prediction, the Fed has cut interest rates three times. Looks like Dowd called it correctly. So, when does the panic kick in? Dowd says, “The panic kicks in when there is some sort of banking wobble or stock market wobble, which is in the process of setting up. Private credit is the first to show problems. We had Tricolor Holdings (subprime auto lending bankruptcy) go poof. We had First Brands (bankruptcy) go poof. This is all private credit. We have had other lenders like PrimaLend (bankruptcy) starting to go poof. Private credit is just like subprime. It not a very big part of the Jenga credit chain, but it’s enough to start a daisy chain of knock-on effects. So, this is where we are, at the beginning of the credit destruction cycle. We are seeing consumer credit card delinquencies nearing all-time highs, auto loan delinquencies and, next up, we will be seeing mortgage delinquencies. People stop paying their credit cards first, then their auto loans and stop paying on their homes last. As the layoffs accelerate, and we are already seeing more high-profile layoffs at Amazon, UPS and you name it, once those begin, we will be seeing higher delinquency rates.”
At the Beginning of Credit Destruction Cycle – Ed Dowd | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com Former Wall Street money manager and financial analyst Ed Dowd of PhinanceTechnologies.com warned in September we were at the "Beginning of Panic Rate Cut Cycle." Since that prediction, the Fed has cut interest rates three times. Looks like Dowd called it...
usawatchdog.com
Cigarlover
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Sounds like China is tired of paying high prices for silver as well. See if they can take it back down to 50.
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Maybe. On the other hand, if they still have a trillion of US debt, they might want to turn it into silver and increase the value of what they already have.
Cigarlover
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I'm ok with prices regardless of where they go. Lower and I'm a buyer. Higher and I'm happy as well.
The big problem going forward is what do you do with extra money now? Keep buying at higher prices and hope the bottom doesn't drop out? Platinum and palladium have really high premiums and not much available. Cuban cigars are almost impossible to get through customs nowadays and I barely drink anymore so no need for more wines. Maybe just spend some money on the house and do some upgrades. Or just travel and enjoy life a bit.
The big problem going forward is what do you do with extra money now? Keep buying at higher prices and hope the bottom doesn't drop out? Platinum and palladium have really high premiums and not much available. Cuban cigars are almost impossible to get through customs nowadays and I barely drink anymore so no need for more wines. Maybe just spend some money on the house and do some upgrades. Or just travel and enjoy life a bit.
Monday morning 12-15 (USA) in silver.
SGE silver rose back above $65/ozt in overnight trading in China (remaining at a premium to LBMA spot). The SFE silver vault continued its 3 week long streak of inflows as should be expected while China maintains premiums over the West's silver prices.
EFP spread (COMEX Dec futures - LBMA spot) remains in negative territory at -$0.78 this morning. This is down from -$0.90 seen on Friday. It looks like the CME margin hikes on COMEX silver futures are working as intended to establish/maintain a sufficient negative EFP spread to provide the bullion banks a profitable arb in sending COMEX silver to London (to the LBMA).
Indian futures appear to be mildly in backwardation with the February contract now at ~$68.19/ozt and the March contract at ~$68.01/ozt. The February contract is at a ~$0.18/ozt premium to the March contract. Seems like India still wants immediate delivery physical silver.
SLV shares available to borrow remain at 10M and the borrow fee is currently 0.84%. Last week SLV was adding new shares and vault stock as the silver spot price rose. SLV's vault stock gains are the LBMA's free float losses. Will it continue this week?
The CME raised margins on COMEX silver futures last Friday and the China followed suit raising margins on SFE silver futures last night (Monday morning for China). Silver tanked during USA trading and recovered last night during China trading. It looks like China is setting the price now, but Mr. Slammy might not be done just yet.
SGE silver rose back above $65/ozt in overnight trading in China (remaining at a premium to LBMA spot). The SFE silver vault continued its 3 week long streak of inflows as should be expected while China maintains premiums over the West's silver prices.
EFP spread (COMEX Dec futures - LBMA spot) remains in negative territory at -$0.78 this morning. This is down from -$0.90 seen on Friday. It looks like the CME margin hikes on COMEX silver futures are working as intended to establish/maintain a sufficient negative EFP spread to provide the bullion banks a profitable arb in sending COMEX silver to London (to the LBMA).
Indian futures appear to be mildly in backwardation with the February contract now at ~$68.19/ozt and the March contract at ~$68.01/ozt. The February contract is at a ~$0.18/ozt premium to the March contract. Seems like India still wants immediate delivery physical silver.
SLV shares available to borrow remain at 10M and the borrow fee is currently 0.84%. Last week SLV was adding new shares and vault stock as the silver spot price rose. SLV's vault stock gains are the LBMA's free float losses. Will it continue this week?
The CME raised margins on COMEX silver futures last Friday and the China followed suit raising margins on SFE silver futures last night (Monday morning for China). Silver tanked during USA trading and recovered last night during China trading. It looks like China is setting the price now, but Mr. Slammy might not be done just yet.
China increasing was to increase transparency in their market plus they want to avoid the controversy of being accused of hoarding PMs by not interfering. However, they often simply go around the market and directly to the miners. It's a different brand of BS, but IDK seems the same kind of? As long as their markets remain open and deliverable, then they are on the high road.
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SWIFT Weaponization and the BRICS Pushback | Martin Armstrong
In this Natural Resource Stocks interview, host Andy Millette speaks with Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics about why Europe is structurally breaking, why capital keeps running to the US, and what weaponizing the monetary system could trigger next. #MillettianMartin explains why he believes the euro was built with fatal incentives, why he does not expect it to last beyond 2030, and why sovereign debt risk is re-emerging across the EU. He also breaks down how the freezing of Russian assets and the push to use SWIFT as a geopolitical weapon accelerates parallel payment rails and strengthens the BRICS narrative.
Topics include
Europe debt and why the euro cannot compete with the dollar
Why Martin expects the euro to fail by 2030
France and UK and the IMF bailout discussion
Freezing Russia reserves and the rule of law problem
Capital flows and why the NYSE dwarfs Europe
SWIFT pushback and what it means for BRICS and trade
Centralization, civil liberties, and where this heads next
How Armstrong Economics uses models and an open source approach
Chapters
00:00 Intro and what the back channel says
01:13 Ukraine terms and NATO neutrality
05:17 Sanctions, freezes, and unintended blowback
12:36 Why the euro structure fails
14:16 Not lasting beyond 2030
18:46 2010 bailouts and the next contagion
20:46 France might need an IMF bailout
25:17 NYSE scale versus Europe
29:48 SWIFT, BRICS, and parallel rails
34:43 Centralization and civil liberties
37:57 Open source models and Socrates
BRICS will be better than SWIFT because it is 90% cheaper since there is no skim off the top of every transaction going to that certain group of financiers and settles much quicker.
I would like to deposit some of my PMs in a bullion bank where they could be tokenized and I could travel freely throughout the world paying with their digits.
I would like to deposit some of my PMs in a bullion bank where they could be tokenized and I could travel freely throughout the world paying with their digits.
The LBMA is skating on thin ice. Their shallow silver pool is freezing over. This is the big picture that is coming into focus:
The signs of stress in the LBMA silver market are starting to show again. The LBMA's free float silver stock is too shallow to satisfy demand. Unfortunately for London, there appears to be a perfect storm brewing:
London needs a negative EFP spread to allow bullion banks to move COMEX silver to London without pain. If EFP spreads stay positive, I could forsee the CME raising margins as many times as it takes until the futures market capitulates. This would be an "We're in the end game" type of move. As a stacker, this doesn't bother me. If you are trading futures with leverage, caveat emptor.
(2) London silver pool is shallow
(3)Lease rates 12x normal
- The LBMA has likely overstated their silver vault stock two months in a row
- ETFs and India are drinking what's left of the LBMA's shallow silver pool
- Silver lease rates are still elevated (canary number one)
- Someone has started raiding SLV inventory again (canary number two)
The signs of stress in the LBMA silver market are starting to show again. The LBMA's free float silver stock is too shallow to satisfy demand. Unfortunately for London, there appears to be a perfect storm brewing:
- LBMA spot price is rising - increasing investment demand causes ETFs to eat more and more LBMA silver cookies
- China is closing the door on silver exports - they won't be backstopping the LBMA again like they did in October
- EFP spreads have turned positive (at least for this morning) - if they remain positive, it's going to cost bullion banks a lot of pain to move COMEX silver to London.
London needs a negative EFP spread to allow bullion banks to move COMEX silver to London without pain. If EFP spreads stay positive, I could forsee the CME raising margins as many times as it takes until the futures market capitulates. This would be an "We're in the end game" type of move. As a stacker, this doesn't bother me. If you are trading futures with leverage, caveat emptor.
(2) London silver pool is shallow
(3)Lease rates 12x normal
Dr. Potassium said:Silver — Monday closing update
Cleared the top of the $62.71-$63.71 range, so I expect to see silver make new all time highs again in the next 24 hours, probably overnight
Hitting $65.18 overnight might provoke an intraday retest of $63.71, but that should bounce back quickly. A quick bounce there opens the door to a new ATH range between $67.07 - $68.37 where turbulence may occur for a day or two
I’m still buying silver and I have not sold any of my AGQ. The $70s are in reach
Onward and upward
X post includes pretty chart(s)
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- Messages
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If you figure that out let me know!