2026 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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Cigarlover said:
Michael is always the most bullish.

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Warren Buffett has the largest cash position at age 95. He thinks everything is overpriced, but I am not sure, prices can stay high as purchasing power erodes $usd. gold to 48,000? Just making a crazy guess and I think big bankers need to acquire profitable royalty companies to treat them as their bank. lol
 


Our 5th warning:

The bond market crisis is intensifying.

The US 10Y Note Yield is now officially above 4.55% for the first time since May 2025.

After weeks of euphoria, the market is beginning to react today.

As we have been stating for the last few weeks, the current situation in the bond market is unsustainable.

We are now above levels seen when President Trump implemented a "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025 due to a collapsing bond market.

Furthermore, the market now sees a 60%+ chance that the Fed's next move is an interest rate HIKE, with rate cuts entirely priced-out.

We expect to see 7%+ mortgages next, all as auto loan delinquencies have reached 32-year highs.

Inflation is back and higher rates are coming.
 
Goldhedge said:


Our 5th warning:

The bond market crisis is intensifying.

The US 10Y Note Yield is now officially above 4.55% for the first time since May 2025.

After weeks of euphoria, the market is beginning to react today.

As we have been stating for the last few weeks, the current situation in the bond market is unsustainable.

We are now above levels seen when President Trump implemented a "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025 due to a collapsing bond market.

Furthermore, the market now sees a 60%+ chance that the Fed's next move is an interest rate HIKE, with rate cuts entirely priced-out.

We expect to see 7%+ mortgages next, all as auto loan delinquencies have reached 32-year highs.

Inflation is back and higher rates are coming.
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Not rates but real rates... if inflation spikes (very real) then real rates turn negative even without lower interest rates which is again bullish for gold. gold can react negatively in reaction to rising inflation but unlikely but not always easy to predict when the Feds will act quickly to do rate hikes. How does that affect the 37 Trillion in debt? How are they going to absorb the interest payments? Not pretty
 
So we have about 1.5 trillion in interest payments on 40 trillion in debt. Congress borrows 2 trillion to pay the interest. The other 1/2 trillion goes to Wall Street where they make donations to congress for re election. Everyone is happy except 98% of the real American population. DC doesn't give a shit about them though.
 
incredible post on x, I still need to understand that concept. if someone can explain the benefits on that that would helpful. link:
 
it's all speculation isn't that new chair recommended by trump to lower the rates? The Fed chair is a hot seat filled with charcoal and ashtrays.
 
The Fed has used Core PCE, which excludes food and energy...
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The stupidity should be obvious. What else is at the top of the list, maybe housing and cars? Please show me how housing and car prices have lowered to offset the leaps in food and energy prices.
 
They use a weighted system so no one is going to know that secret formula. I'll be more concerned if they are politically driven, unlikely but it could happen.
 
I’m shocked to see how little people care about the escalating situation in the bond market. I guess they simply don’t understand what’s happening. So let me put in simple words - your government spent so much that no one wants to lend it anymore, and it’s about to go bankrupt. But it has this friend, called the central bank, which has a magic printer in his basement that can produce an infinite amount of dollars. So the central bank is going to bail out your government.

But here’s the thing - the magic printer can’t print real wealth. Whenever it spits out dollars, it is stealing some of the purchasing power of your savings. It’s as though it is reaching out with a very long straw, drinking your milkshake.

That’s right, it is YOU who will be bailing out your government, whether you like it or not, until the currency is worthless and you have no more savings. Are you angry yet?

Good. Now go and get yourself some #silver .
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It feels like sell in May and go AWAY. gold is holding strong and yet gold stocks, the paper version is falling.
 


Mining Stocks Today@MiningStocksHQ
Silver lease rates just hit 6.8% annualized in London.

Most people don't know what that means.

Here is the explanation:

A lease rate is what borrowers pay to access physical silver for industrial use.

When rates are low — 0.5% — silver is abundant and easy to borrow.

When rates hit 6.8% — borrowers are paying a massive premium because physical silver is genuinely scarce.
6.8% is a stress signal.

At the end of May, June COMEX silver futures hit their first notice day.

Institutional buyers can demand physical delivery instead of cash settlement.

With silver in its 6th consecutive year of supply deficits and 95 million ounces having left the US in just the first 2 months of 2026 — physical delivery pressure is building.
 
Tim on Yankee stacking said tonight that it's the refineries that are the problem. They are running at max capacity and still choking on silver. Thats why dealers either aren't buying or are offering buy prices so low you wont want to sell.

Industrial demand for the 1000 oz bars is high which is why the refineries don't want 90% or sterling. The only solution I see is bringing more refineries online. I have no idea what it takes to build a refinery but I imagine it isn't cheap or quick to build.
 
Remember back in the 1960s when Chairman Mao encouraged every Chinese citizen to make steel in their backyards, so China could develop independently. Seems like a ridiculous idea today and it was. There was famine all over because so many resources were diverted from farming plus the hoemade steel was.mostly useless.

Yes, running a refinery is serious business to do it at scale and profitably. First thing you need is to find a site with transportation hubs and a friendly government. Next you need labor and fuel. Good luck.
 
Cigarlover said:
Tim on Yankee stacking said tonight that it's the refineries that are the problem. They are running at max capacity and still choking on silver. Thats why dealers either aren't buying or are offering buy prices so low you wont want to sell.

Industrial demand for the 1000 oz bars is high which is why the refineries don't want 90% or sterling. The only solution I see is bringing more refineries online. I have no idea what it takes to build a refinery but I imagine it isn't cheap or quick to build.
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Silver refineries...

nickndfl said:
Remember back in the 1960s when Chairman Mao encouraged every Chinese citizen to make steel in their backyards, so China could develop independently. Seems like a ridiculous idea today and it was. There was famine all over because so many resources were diverted from farming plus the hoemade steel was.mostly useless.

Yes, running a refinery is serious business to do it at scale and profitably. First thing you need is to find a site with transportation hubs and a friendly government. Next you need labor and fuel. Good luck.
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vs Steel refineries
 
Just in case you think things are mostly on the up and up or SLV is the pinnicle or a one-off... Oh contraire

XRT has now hit a new record short-interest.



It is down to only 1 million shares outstanding for a ..... 2,113% Short Interest. :lmao::lmao::lmao:
 
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