2026 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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Just think of the markets and some big money trying to steal as much money as possible from the casino. You'll understand its moves much better.
 

It's Starting! The gold price is exploding. Treasury announcement. All eyes are now on Sept 15th.​

This afternoon the gold price jumped over $100 in 90 minutes.

The rise came immediately after the US Treasury released an announcement on its website.

In the space of six days Treasury has doubled how often it buys long bonds, and then doubled how much it can buy each time.

The Fed is standing still. The Federal Reserve is not riding to the rescue. On 13 August, the New York Fed announced it would buy nothing at all between 14 August and 14 September.

The logical next step is fuller yield curve control, and that requires the Fed.

Gold is anticipating what the Fed will do. September 15th Could be the day to watch gold.

 


China's SGE has been running at a discount to LBMA spot for the last few days. I have to wonder if that is encouraging an arbitrage trade for bullion banks to buy LBMA gold and ship it to China.
 
Looks like they are now seeing problems in Zinc supplies as well as it soars into backwardation. This is especially important for Silver because many of the largest Silver mines are Ag-Pb-Zn ores. So if they are having trouble with Zinc output then silver is gonna be there too.

HSBC Warns Global Zinc Market Is Flashing Signs Of Tightness <!-- --> | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

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Ray Dalio recommendation for 15% portfolio rotation into gold is making the rounds...

pmbug said:
Free float gold stock (ie. actually available - not owned by ETFs or the Bank of England) in the LBMA + COMEX vaults as of the end of July was only ~2,375 metric tons. At $4,500/ozt, that's ~$344B. A rotation of just ~0.1% of that $350T would be enough to wipe out the entire available inventory of currently vaulted Good Delivery gold bars in Western markets.

The math is even more striking with silver (it's a much smaller market). Free float silver stock in the LBMA + COMEX vaults as of the end of July was only ~15,330 metric tons. At $80/ozt, that's $39.4B (10x smaller than gold). Just 0.01% of the $350T would wipe out available inventory of currently vaulted Good Delivery silver bars in Western markets.
Click to expand...

 
Clive is on top of it!

Panic as Bond Market Crisis Causes Bond Prices to Crumble. Gold Soars. Bitcoin up 22.6% on week.​

 
Posted for amusement



Breaking: Michael Burry has disclosed his updated positions
He:
• Bought CoreWeave $CRWV shorts
• Added to Micron $MU shorts
• Added to Palantir $PLTR shorts
• Added to Semiconductor ETF $SOXX shorts
• Added to Mercado Libre $MELI longs at $1890s
• Added to Lululemon $LULU longs at $115s
• Added to Molina $MOH at $201
• Bought Sprouts Farmer’s Markets $SFM shares at $70s
• Bought Temple & Webster $TPLWF shares in low $3s
• Bought Build-a-Bear $BBW in mid-upper $30s
• Trimmed PayPal $PYPL
• Trimmed Veeva $VEEV

Michael Burry said "The vast majority of people should never short, and likewise should never be on margin."
 
We have Sprouts stores in my area. They have decent merchandise and they are proud of it.
 
So Bessent screwed the pooch in today's presser threatening to kick nations supporting Iran out of the Dollar system/markets (SWIFT) and also threatening sanctions against an unknown major bank (speculated to be China's ICBC). They don't know what they are doing IMO. Playing with fire and going to get burned.
 
pmbug said:
We have Sprouts stores in my area. They have decent merchandise and they are proud of it.
Click to expand...

As do we!

Looks like he bought end of July. Long term trend seems to be rising. That last green rise is probably because of the X post above...?

Screenshot 2026-08-24 at 6.48.53 PM.png
 
pmbug said:
LBMA gold and silver supply is likely shrinking as spot prices are rising relative to COMEX futures.

EFP spreads (COMEX futures price - LBMA spot price) for August & September contracts continued to drop this morning with silver's Sep COMEX contract EFP spread flipping negative and gold's Aug COMEX contract EFP spread at >$5 below LBMA spot - the most it's been since early July.

LBMA prices are rising relative to COMEX futures. It's likely, IMO, that this is reflecting shrinking supply of available metal in the LBMA vaults (ie. free float vault stock). This would make sense as ETFs, China and India are all reporting increasing vault stocks. The ETF's gains are the LBMA's drains.

China and India could possibly be sourcing their inflows from somewhere other than the LBMA, but it's pretty safe to say they aren't sourcing from the COMEX directly (as COMEX withdrawals are low for August). The LBMA is the most likely venue (especially for India as that has been their preferred venue in the recent past).

I think there is a good chance the LBMA gets squeezed again before the end of this year if the current trend continues.
Click to expand...

 
This is NOT retail buying at all. They are still selling, at least mostly in the US, because they are freaking dumb. ETFs are also NOT reflective of real buying and selling either. Its all just an accounting gimmick, probably the banks building inventory possibly for themselves again.

 
I suspect the ETF buying is hedge funds, but that's just speculation on my part.
 
Retail customers are selling now around $70, but they will be standing in line around the block to buy it back at $100.
 
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