American Reality Check

pmbug

Your Host
Administrator
Messages
7,667
Reaction score
79
Points
203
Location
Texas
8/13/20 - $7.005T (12B increase from week before)
8/20/20 - $7.059T (54B decrease from week before)

Balance sheet was mostly flat (small increases/decreases) since July 16 report until this last week. Start of a trend, or just more noise? They've managed to hold the line on the balance sheet more or less around the 7T mark. That will likely change if war breaks out or Congress passes another stimulus bill (or the economy/financial markets get pressured by [an] oddly colored swan[ s ]).
 

pmbug

Your Host
Administrator
Messages
7,667
Reaction score
79
Points
203
Location
Texas
8/27/20 - $7.039T (20B decrease from week before)
9/3/20 - $7.065T (26B increase from week before)

 

rblong2us

Yellow Jacket
Messages
2,198
Reaction score
47
Points
163
Location
off world
how much can the CB's get out there before 'The Great Reset ' takes care of it all ?

Its a delicate balancing act.
 

pmbug

Your Host
Administrator
Messages
7,667
Reaction score
79
Points
203
Location
Texas
The dethroning of the dollar from its pandemic supremacy is changing the trading game across stocks, emerging markets and commodities.
...
The dollar’s decline has also helped thrust gold onto center stage, since the two are considered to typically move in opposing directions. Though the relationship isn’t straightforward, the greenback’s descent as real yields plumb fresh lows is being met with outsize demand for gold.

Going forward, some investors are betting that bullion will prove a better haven than Treasuries as inflation bites ...
 

pmbug

Your Host
Administrator
Messages
7,667
Reaction score
79
Points
203
Location
Texas
9/10/20 - $7.059T (6B decrease from week before)
9/17/20 - $7.113T (54B increase from week before)

Looks like liftoff from the 7T mark has begun.
 

pmbug

Your Host
Administrator
Messages
7,667
Reaction score
79
Points
203
Location
Texas
9/24/20 - $7.141T (28B increase from week before)

If the Fed averages $30B a week increase, the balance sheet should hit $8T in about 29 weeks - just over half a year.
 

pmbug

Your Host
Administrator
Messages
7,667
Reaction score
79
Points
203
Location
Texas
10/1/20 - $7.103T (38B decrease from week before)

OK. It's not going to go straight up then...
 

pmbug

Your Host
Administrator
Messages
7,667
Reaction score
79
Points
203
Location
Texas
Catching up...

10/8/20 - $7.123T (20B increase from week before)
10/15/20 - $7.199T (76B increase from week before)
10/22/20 - $7.225T (26B increase from week before)
10/29/20 - $7.194T (31B decrease from week before)
11/5/20 - $7.206T (12B increase from week before)
11/12/20 - $7.224T (18B increase from week before)

~~~

...
Vaccine rollout and loose monetary policy will weigh on the U.S. dollar next year, with the currency at risk of falling 20%, Citi said in a note this week.

"When viable, widely distributed vaccines hit the market, we believe that this will catalyze the next leg lower in the structural USD downtrend we expect," Citi wrote. "Given this set-up, there is the potential for the dollar's losses to be front-loaded, with the USD potentially falling by as much as 20% in 2021."
...
 

rblong2us

Yellow Jacket
Messages
2,198
Reaction score
47
Points
163
Location
off world
so eerrr gold up 20% ?
bring on that vaccine then ...........

Am I missing something here ?
 

pmbug

Your Host
Administrator
Messages
7,667
Reaction score
79
Points
203
Location
Texas
11/19/20 - $7.291T (67B increase from week before)
11/27/20 - $7.265T (26B decrease from week before)
12/3/20 - $7.270T (5B increase from week before)

Seems the balance sheet expansion isn't going up in a straight line.
 

pmbug

Your Host
Administrator
Messages
7,667
Reaction score
79
Points
203
Location
Texas
12/10/20 - $7.291T (21B increase from week before)
12/17/20 - $7.411T (120B increase from week before)

Big increase reported last week. New stimulus bill was signed last night, so more brrrt baked into the cake.
 

pmbug

Your Host
Administrator
Messages
7,667
Reaction score
79
Points
203
Location
Texas
12/28/20 - $7.452T (41B increase from week before)
12/31/20 - $7.411T (41B decrease from 3 days before - was previous report real? Back to where we were 12/17/20)
1/7/21 - $7.383T (28B decrease from week before)

~~~

Aside from exponential M1/M2 money supply growth over the last month or so, America's insane political theater seems to be coming to a head. I haven't been posting much lately with the holidays and such. Central banks et al seem to be keeping a lid on precious metals while crypto seems to have exploded. New strains of Covid are running rampant in the USA right now. The economy is set for another slowdown in spite of vaccines starting to trickle out to the public. There are probably more risk factors threatening the stability of life (markets, economic, politics) right now than at any other point in my lifetime.
 

rblong2us

Yellow Jacket
Messages
2,198
Reaction score
47
Points
163
Location
off world
Yes, no matter what happens, half of America is seriously unpappy with the other half and theres no fence sitting area.
Trump does not seem to be acting like he is about done and his Sun Tsu way of doing things suggests we could yet be in for some surprises.....

A log cabin in the mountains would seem an appropriate location right now.
 

pmbug

Your Host
Administrator
Messages
7,667
Reaction score
79
Points
203
Location
Texas
1/14/21 - $7.382T (1B decrease from week before)
1/21/21 - $7.463T (81B increase from week before)
1/28/21 - $7.453T (10B decrease from week before)

The Fed has now put on ice five of its SPVs (Special Purpose Vehicles) which had been designed back in March to bail out the bond market. It unwound its repo positions last June. Its foreign central bank liquidity swaps are now down to near-nothing except with the Swiss National Bank, which seems to have a need for dollars. The Fed has been adding to its pile of Treasury securities at the rate spelled out in its FOMC statements, thereby monetizing part of the US government debt. And it has been adding to its pile of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS).

The result is that total assets on its weekly balance sheet through Wednesday, at $7.4 trillion, are roughly flat with the level in mid-December and are up by $200 billion from early June, with an average growth rate over the six-plus months of $30 billion a month.
...
 

pmbug

Your Host
Administrator
Messages
7,667
Reaction score
79
Points
203
Location
Texas
2/4/21 - $7.459T (6B increase from week before)
2/11/21 - $7.491T (32B increase from week before)
2/18/21 - $7.606T (115B increase from week before)

 
Last edited:

pmbug

Your Host
Administrator
Messages
7,667
Reaction score
79
Points
203
Location
Texas
...
In response to a questions posed by Congressman Warren Davidson about whether “M2 [money supply] going up by 25% in one year” is going to “diminish the value of the U.S. dollar,” Powell responded, “there was a time when monetary policy aggregates were important determinants of inflation and that has not been the case for a long time.”

Powell added that “the correlation between different aggregates [like] M2 and inflation is just very, very low, and you see that now where inflation is at 1.4% for this year. Inflation dynamics evolve over time, but they don’t tend to change overnight.”
...

Asset bubbles aren't inflation, so cool, cool...brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrt
 

Chigg

Fly on the Wall
Messages
67
Reaction score
4
Points
43
I thought the definition of inflation was an increase in the money supply.
 
Top