bank holiday

It seems that bank holidays will be likely in our future, so I thought it would be worth while to discuss them.

If they do occur, are they generally called for by the government, or do the banks themselves decide to be closed to avoid a run?

How long could we expect a "typical" bank closure to last?

Are all accounts frozen so that you can't move money around electronically?

Would it apply to credit unions and brokerage accounts too?

Not to argue, but why do you think so? My feeling is somewhat different here. I think that unless and until we are in the Wiemar/Zimbabwe state or getting close, that there will simply be enough printed and handed to them (nudge, wink) for the banks to let you have your quickly devaluing nominal back, you know, all that government backing junk. I kind of doubt they'll let the underfunded FDIC fail any more than they let Fannie and Freddie fail with much less policy guarantee on them.

Or, one could suppose it's already happening? I suppose a key market would be net funds on deposit - if that started going down quick we'd be in a bank-run status.
The way they (are allowed to) cook their books on other things, you'd have to wonder if that number is one of the cooked ones.

As long as they see any hope of keeping it together, it seems the pols will do "whatever".

Generally, when a bank holiday occurrs, there is no warning or announcement.

This is what happened in Argentina during the 2001 currency collapse:

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I think that the treasury and fed are plugged into the system enough to provide pretty much all the liquidity banks could possibly need. I also think they have every intention to avoid bank runs and closures and will do whatever it takes to prevent them.. If we get to that point, they have lost control of the system entirely and you can pretty much kiss your cash goodbye.

Bank runs are contagious guys, and if one starts in the Euro periphery, it can and will quickly spread. I don't think the U.S. will permit a bank holiday, but they might prohibit large withdrawls of money. While it would technically be a pseudo holiday, I think they would get away with it long enough to allow the system to stabilize.

"Since all our money is loaned onto existence, our economy has to grow exponentially. Martenson proves this point empirically by showing a 99.9% fit of the actual growth curve of the last 40 years to an exponential curve"

Since our money printing grows exponentially, we will at some point have to launch replacement currencies. This will require a 'bank holiday' and the Argentine example shows us what can happen.

Hopefully we have all read Ferfals diary / blog of what happened in this scary time and have taken in his conclusions as to what he would do in a repeat situation
see - http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/47085

Back around the time the system broke and Lehmans went down, there were lots of rumours regarding banks getting signs from HQ to put in the branch windows saying 'closed until further notice' ..... now eff off and dont bother us.
But we were also reading about the 'Amero' being run in the background as a shadow currency .....

I see Bank Holidays as inevitable just the timing thats open to discussion.

thank you

thank you for posting the series of videos.

RB2U,
I believe, as I think you do, that shit will hit an equilibrium level, whereby there is simply soo much money in the system and prices begin the exponential rise. That hwole idea scares the holy hell out of me to be frank about it.

dontdebase and PMBug,

Great thread, thanks for starting and putting up the videos, which of course will take a LONG time to watch (especially from here in Peru -- on a visit to our bearing company). Great comments too.

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My take on a Bank Holiday is that it COULD happen. I like to think in terms of probabilities... Probably will NOT happen, but that probability is real hard to quantify. And the downside of a Holiday are bad. Credit cards probably would not work either. I tend to agree with our amigos above who say such a Holiday is not likely, that they will print.

But, I don´t KNOW what will happen. That´s why I keep more $FRNs around than most. Three - six months living expenses if you can.

Past three years or so I am always a little nervous when I am away from my gold...

Somewhat relevant, a talk by Kyle Bass on impending doom. I'm going to have to watch the above vids again myself (been awhile). Remember, though, things are a little different for a country like the US that (currently) has reserve currency status. The effects of our printing are less at first, because of that. When (not if?) we abuse that, we lose that status, which takes awhile for everyone go gang up and figure a replacement. When that happens - katie bar the door - the SHTF and it happens very very fast, and it's too late to un-print all the money at that point. But my best guess, and that's all it is, is that they print, hand it to the banks, you get your nominal amount back - but it just won't buy as much as it did when you put it in there. Maybe a lot less.

http://youtu.be/5V3kpKzd-Yw

dontdeBasemebro said:

If they do occur, are they generally called for by the government, or do the banks themselves decide to be closed to avoid a run?

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Since the govy is ultimately run by the banks, the banks will decide, rather than the government.


Nathan Mayer Rothschild:
“Give me control of a nation’s money and I care not who makes the laws.”

“I care not what puppet is placed on the throne of England to rule the Empire, …The man that controls Britain’s money supply controls the British Empire. And I control the money supply.”

Well, of course, the banks will tell the government to decide and announce of course.
So to the sheep, it will appear to be the government's call, as usual. Wonder how much better things would get if that simple relationship was unmasked credibly for all?

Probably create quite the rough spot at first when people realized the government isn't in charge of things, and hasn't been for quite some time.

DCFusor said:

... Remember, though, things are a little different for a country like the US that (currently) has reserve currency status. ... When (not if?) we abuse that, we lose that status, which takes awhile for everyone go gang up and figure a replacement. When that happens - katie bar the door - the SHTF and it happens very very fast, ...

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China has been planning, pushing and working towards undermining the dollar's resserve currency status for several years now. I chronicled a bit of it in the total perspective vortex thread and the thread about the Pan Asian Gold Exchange (PAGE).

If the middle east decides to start trading oil in Renminbi or Euros (or gold or whatever), the dominos will fall. Iraq tried it and that didn't work out too well for their political class. Iran is now doing it and they are next on the list.

I haven't heard much more about the rest of the gulf states' efforts to escape the yoke of the dollar since 2009, but rest assured that they are keenly aware of this issue and will be watching the Fed and the dollar closely.

One other key difference you didn't mention DCF was that the USA has a much, much larger ownership of firearms than any other country in the world:


Rate of Civilian Firearm Possession per 100 Population

http://www.gunpolicy.org/

There is a reason the government has been so hell bent on creating a draconian DHS apparatus and now pushing to authorize the use of the military to engage civilians within our borders.

Does anyone know if China has a Rothschild/IMF central bank?

DCFusor said:

Well, of course, the banks will tell the government to decide and announce of course.
So to the sheep, it will appear to be the government's call, as usual. Wonder how much better things would get if that simple relationship was unmasked credibly for all?

Probably create quite the rough spot at first when people realized the government isn't in charge of things, and hasn't been for quite some time.

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It is very obvious to you and I and many here at PMbug, but very unobvious to 90%+ of the people out there, as you inferred above.

I often wonder how much ruckus there would actually be if this type of info was clearly exposed to the masses in general.

It is amazing how apathetic so many people are these days (fluoride anyone?). We have all tried sharing info like this to friends/family/strangers and while some people receive it gladly, many others basically shrug and get a glazed look.

I hate to say it but in reality the mainstream media grip and the propaganda programming is so strong that it would take a minor miracle to wake up the sheep and my pondering about what would happen is likely just a theoretical exercise.

The sliver of good news is that there are more people waking up slowly but surely.

PMBug, now THAT is a great graph (guns owned per 100 people). Hey we beat Yemen and Serbia! Both very weaponized places.

I have read about a group called Oath Keepers, who are a group asking the police and military to not obey unconstitutional orders (like seizing guns from the citizenry or beseiging cities after TSHTF).

I THINK the website is oathkeepers.org.

I forgot to mention that gun thing, I suppose because they are just part of the norm for me around here - I build them myself for long range shooting competition, load my own ammo, and all that, just a normal thing and many of my neighbors at least reload so as to have better ammo, and to make more shooting affordable - here, it's like golf is in other places, a reason to get together with the other well-off sorts and shoot the breeze and make deals and whatnot. I wonder though - about all the gun people I know are truly non-violent types (nothing to prove), it would take quite a bit for them to use one in anger. Most don't even hunt, and we live in hunting heaven here. Some don't even shoot the penguin targets with handguns, because they don't want to get into the habit of shooting human-like things at all reflexively (I am one of those, a bullseye works for me just fine). I'm sure any of us could, in the extreme, but it'd have to be the real extreme. So far, I think that's all good.
But since they are everywhere, literally, they become something we don't think about all that much as weapons related to human targets. A hunter dropped by this morning, and we jointly admired his 7mm mag by Weatherby - pretty gun, light, powerful, accurate. Didn't talk about possible uses on other than deer. He'd just taken an unusual for here 260 yd shot with it, and if I may pun, "dead on". Since that deer was on my land, he'll be sending my freezer a little present. Nice!

Viewing those vids on Argentina (not done yet), wow, in some ways real similar to here. It is of course possible to privatize state outfits in a good way - but they sure didn't do that, that was crony capitalism in the extreme. We seem to be catching up, though by a slightly different path. I wonder if anyone has pulled off the public-private transition in a good way historically. I know the Soviets didn't either.

Funny how we just did the same thing, in effect - stuck people with the bills - but called it socializing the private debts of banks. Same thing, different spin.

It took me a long time to realize how bad our government had been corrupted. As a consultant, most of my business was with large firms, but most of those were privately held, well run, and in no way corrupt, so I felt that must be mostly true of all of them. I worked at the very top - ownership level, and all my customers were really stand-up guys - which showed - their employees flat loved them.

When I did do work for the really bigs (Microsoft, Texas Instruments, Microchip), of course I didn't get in at board level like I did with the mere billion dollar outfits, so I didn't see any shenanigans - only that they were more troublesome as customers due to not working from the top with them, so there was always that "have to check with the higher ups" BS going on with them.

But various things have opened my eyes, the homework I do for trading being one (follow the money), and the fights over "EYE PEE" another (best laws money can buy).

I'm aware that a lot of people want to get off the US buck as the reserve currency and that some deals have been done already. It's amazing how much inertia there is on that one, though. I think it will take some time, unless we do some really egregious stuff to speed it up (and we might). But the writing is definitely on the wall there, just that it's not happening tomorrow or this year most likely.

And I think that if we are going to have a truly bad situation here, that will be the thing that finally triggers it, else we're just going to have a long, bad, painful slog. The boiling frog syndrome.

Now that will make PM's really a good bet should it happen, and it's likely to happen after some time. If that happens alone, and the whole fiat world doesn't collapse, then everyone with a stack is going to look like a genius. However, should it get a lot worse than that - no or almost no oil, JIT general systems fail, disorder, starvation - and it's possible, though more of a tail risk, then other things will look even smarter, again all in my rarely-humble opinion.

Diversity!

Now, about that boiling frog. I read a post somewhere where someone said if X happens, that'll be when they buy that land and bug out. I really have an issue with that, based on my own experience of doing just that when times were better than they are now, not worse. It takes time to find land, time to find a seller at a price, time to find the good stuff, and most important of all - time to learn how to live on it decently, add whatever infrastructure it's missing and a long list of related tasks. Those first few years were pretty tough for me, and as a younger, more vigorous guy. My take on that one is - if that's what you'd do then, why wait? Do it now! Have the adventure while things aren't that bad yet, when you can really do it and be a success at it. If you were going to do it anyway...again, go ahead, I give you permission!

The more of us like minded people who are truly set up to handle anything, the better for all, or so I think. Most people rationalize that yeah, it'd be tough, and they're almost making it picking up pennies in front of the steamroller we all know is coming - better the devil they know for now. But what if you slip? That steamroller is coming for certain in whatever form.

I point this out over and over, not as a fear monger, but to share the fact that since I did it, and finally got it all working for me, my life has improved so much as to be hard to describe how much better it really is. No more butt-kissing for me. No having to seek approval from anybody. No need for a credit rating. Knowledge that almost no matter what happens, I'll be fine, and will even be able to help the less prepared. I'm living good now - no need to wait for things to get bad to have the excuse!

But as I mentioned above, unless you have infinite dough (and maybe even if you have quite a lot) it takes work and it takes time to learn the new skill set and get it all going for ya. Waiting for the last second is therefore not wise if this sort of bugging out is in your plan-space. It won't be easier if the world is collapsing around you and things can't just be ordered on the web and sent to you by UPS. No way you're going to make a plan on paper that handles it all - you have to learn this one in the old hard-knocks fashion. I know I did my homework, but still didn't know enough about country living until I was trying to do it. Luckily, since I wasn't part of a flood of people all trying to do it at once, the locals kind of adopted me and took me under their wings to teach me how.

Not to ramble indefinitely, but I just realized the key words here are "crowded trade". That's what a bank run is. That's also what a land run is. You don't do well in crowded trades - the exit ramp is finite. Whether it be stacking PM's or some other form of preparedness - the "pre" is the key.

In good times, it took me 6 months to find the good land at an affordable price, and a few years after that to convince people to sell "the land next to mine" that was the truly good stuff. If a whole herd of people came down here looking, well, we'd have to just pen ya up like we do with the other herds, for awhile. Something to think about. And not all the good land is just for sale even if you offer 10x it's nominal worth in a stack - people are quite sentimental in the country, and would probably admire your stack, then show you theirs and grin - but you wouldn't get what you wanted. Even here - where all water flows out of Floyd county, land with springs (no well needed) isn't everywhere, and commands a premium. Land that's croppable (other than cattle) also. A lot of it isn't for sale at the real estate agent - it happens because people like you and know you're looking, you get a call. Just FYI, not to get too horribly off topic (sorry 'bout that).

In Germany, the goverment launched bank holidays in 1948 to institute monetary reform. The conversion ratio from the old currency to the new one was calculated to devalue savings, i.e to steal purchasing power from the citizens. Remember, bank holidays can not only be used to stop runs on the banks. They can also be used to devalue the savings of people overnight.

DCFusor said:

... that gun thing, ... I wonder though - about all the gun people I know are truly non-violent types (nothing to prove), it would take quite a bit for them to use one in anger. ...

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The folks you know, who are already close to self-sufficient in the country, may not be driven over the edge, but folks in the suburbs who are wholly unprepared, will have a much harder time dealing with the loss / theft of almost everything they own.

Once they realize that banging pots in the streets (ala Argentina) isn't going to resolve anything, I suspect they will get desperate. And call me jaded, but I see American society as a whole right now as entirely too entitled and selfish.

DCFusor said:

... Viewing those vids on Argentina (not done yet), wow, in some ways real similar to here. ...

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It is a very good film. Well worth watching and considering the parallels and lessons that apply to our current situation.

DCFusor said:

... It took me a long time to realize how bad our government had been corrupted. ...

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They jumped the shark with TARP in '08. They pulled back the curtain at that point as far as I'm concerned.

DCFusor said:

... I'm aware that a lot of people want to get off the US buck as the reserve currency and that some deals have been done already. It's amazing how much inertia there is on that one, though. I think it will take some time, unless we do some really egregious stuff to speed it up (and we might). But the writing is definitely on the wall there, just that it's not happening tomorrow or this year most likely. ...

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:agree:

I see events accelerating, but do believe it's going to play out over another 2-5 years if we maintain our present course. I fear that we are running out of options for escaping the end game that awaits us. Right now, I see Ron Paul's proposed solutions ($1 T spending cuts plan, HR 1098, etc.) as the best hope for avoiding catastrophe.

DCFusor said:

... Now, about that boiling frog. I read a post somewhere where someone said if X happens, that'll be when they buy that land and bug out. I really have an issue with that, based on my own experience of doing just ...

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Sage words of experience. I'm not waiting for the water to get too hot. I just don't have the means to make the jump yet. :flail:

Excellent post DC. Equally good comments PMBug. I would only disagree with the statement about suburbs. I live on a quarter acre in an old area of Central Florida, but I have a business on 3 acres of mixed use land. We have established a 6K s.f. garden, a small hoop house, and a gaggle of laying hens. Besides beans and bullets, my family belong to a local outdoor rifle and pistol range where we practice with firearms. Now, we don't treat it as prepping per-se, but that is what it truly is. We can veggies and eat homegrown meat and eggs, but live in a semi suburban environment. Although we are on the fringe of residential agricultural land, it is quite busy, with a lot of sheeple we will have to contend with, but I believe that most of these will either move to whatever food centers are set up or leave the area.

Will we see some trouble? I expect to. Will we be prepared? Yes. There are four families on my street who are "awake" and have joined forces with my family. A strong network of friends will become invaluable in a collapse.

Our security may need some significant upgrades when TSHTF, but other than that, we've done just about all we can to prepare. We will continue stacking and storing and hoping the collapse never comes.

I apologize for getting so off topic, but you know how it can be late at night when it's quiet and when you're newly single with plenty of beer - or not, no excuses (and hide your daughters!). Thanks for all the kind words.

Ancona, I'll retract my harsh words on suburbia in your case. Sadly, we each only know what we know from our own experience and it sounds like you've got a real going situation there compared to my experiences in the suburbs of Wash DC for certain. Too many two legged "utterly entitled" predators up there to make it defensible, and too many rules and not enough land to have more than a little hobby garden - no animals, no square feet, though I did learn "square foot gardening" up there. I guess a major benefit of a place like this is the chance to share those experiences so we're not limited only to our own.

And you have the key - a neighborhood, just just co dwelling idiots, and I think that's almost the most important thing. Allies vs potential enemies is a very big deal, and one of the main things I love about where I am. Someone mentioned it's hard to be secure against a bunch of people coming after you - well, that kinda takes care of it, the bad boys would experience severe attenuation on the way in...though if I attracted that sort and level of attention, I'd consider my op security, relationship management and so on as having failed. Under the radar, that's me.

And yes, you hope for the best - and live it right now, today, while also preparing for the worst. Else, what point living? Seems to me that there is a fringe in the survival community that just wants to have (or is too willing to have) a bad life now, and somehow thinks it will be worth it to be king of a very degraded hill later. Not me! I want a good life now, and whatever happens later, both and won't settle for less.
The idea I hold is to maximize the goodness of my entire life, and perhaps those who follow.

This has really stimulated my own thinking, though, and I think I'll start a new thread soon with something I'll write and edit first tonight, probably get it up tomorrow if things go well with it.

The basic unifying idea is that of the crowded trade, and how hard it is to get off one intact. Think what this applies to:

Bank run - crowded trade for FRN's you let someone else hold.
Paper gold (or equities or bonds) - same idea.
Land you don't get in on till everyone else wants to as well, but supply is limited - same. Skills to use that land - well, not the same, but certainly a prerequisite to getting any benefit out of it, so part of planning.
Food, med supplies, toilet paper...
Allies - these take time to make and to generate mutual trust.

Funny how they all kinda fit into what we here seem most concerned about, a unifying concept of limited "whatever" and plenty of "I'll need this later, and already use it now". With a very big side order of "what am I going to do when the only way I know how to get groceries, or ammo, is from the store and everyone else has the same idea at the same time, probably prompted by a supply crunch in the first place?". If those things get super scarce, and therefore super high priced, then even your PM's won't buy as much "then" as they will now - so for things that last well (tools if you will) time to buy is now, when they are cheap in any currency.

At any rate, it got most of my back burner neurons going, and I want to think about it a bit and hope to come up with some sort of good framework for that, and for the idea of sheaves of plans and sub goals with an eye on the various prizes....

PMBug, I too worry about what the type of person who buys a gun, thinks it makes them bulletproof, and watches too much Hollywood gun-play is going to do when things get crazy. Nope, people won't willing dig their own grave just because you point a gun at them like in the Westerns, to say the very least. You don't point a gun, then talk. You don't show it until it's time to go bang. You don't shoot to wound. And you pick your battles - as the Marines say, if you ever find yourself in a fair fight, shoot the planner first. You don't go waving it on the street in a demonstration, you have a plan and a purpose. I know it's really dangerous to pull a gun on someone like me - everything within my arms reach would be flying at your face instantly in the attempt to distract you enough to close the distance and kill you bare-handed, immediately. After all, a rational person realizes there is nothing to lose at that point, so why not give it a go?

I'm maybe drawing too much from my own experiences here, but I'm hoping that sort, the kind you see on the "cop videos" who empty clips at one another at 5 paces - and everyone misses - aren't going to be in the majority. I suspect even if they are now, they won't be for long, and that Darwin has a way of saving most of us from most of them. But in any fight, a pro will tell you it's not other pros you worry about most, it's some crazy amateur who does something you don't expect, because it would usually be suicidal for them.. Another type of tail risk.

Belive me man, I get it. I am lucky to have the friennds I have and will die protecing them if required. I am NOT an armchair warrior, I am a concerned individual who loves his friends and will do what is required when the time comes. That said, I appreciate your reply and will respond when I have had time to digest the post.

DCFusor said:

hope for the best - and live it right now, today, while also preparing for the worst. Else, what point living? Seems to me that there is a fringe in the survival community that just wants to have (or is too willing to have) a bad life now, and somehow thinks it will be worth it to be king of a very degraded hill later.

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Yup some excellent comments DCF.

I consider myself to be a Cheerful Doomer and get a buzz from scheming up ideas to function independantly. The frustration and setbacks of actually creating the ideas, is real learning.

Your 'crowded trade' comments are also spot on and my 'buy the property when gold hits $5k' exit strategy, is only an option if there is enough stability at the time.

So heres hoping our respective govs / banksters can manage the decline, to make it as gentle as possible.

Have you guys seen this?
Biden and Obama were advised to institute a bank holiday the first day Obama was in office. And they called Jon fucking Corzine asking for his opinion:

Your 'crowded trade' comments are also spot on and my 'buy the property when gold hits $5k' exit strategy, is only an option if there is enough stability at the time.

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My own experience was what generated that one. You not only need enough stability to get a title transferred, but enough time to find the land that will be good for you and your skills and plan (which will almost certainly change after you get the land). And then, when that land comes up for sale, you have to grab it before someone else does. It's not like getting a used car off the lot, where they're always there and all more or less fungible.

I'm working on the "Crowded trade" thesis, and how that kind of thinking might generate a possible sheaf of plans to deal with the sheaf of possibilities we might be facing soon, coming from a variety of "where are you now" and "what's going to happen and how will it affect that" kinds of starting places. It's going to take me a little while to get there with a broad enough outlook to handle more than the easiest obvious cases though. Chris Martenson kinda has the big picture wrapped up already, but that's not really a plan - it's a backdrop. The whole planet is a crowded trade at present - but there are places and ways where it's not so bad yet...

The thing is, by definition, if you wait till it's obvious, things aren't stable, and time is short, both - so it's not a formula for success to think like that. You might get lucky - I've been lucky - but it's not a high probability trade.

Basically the way good land becomes available around here is someone dies. Their kids have already moved to the city. They find out they can't get rich selling it all in one piece (quantity discount applies to land too), so they divide it up into pieces (limited by what the gov will let them do) and sell those at auction or through the usual real estate agents, to maximize their inheritance. You kind of have to be on the spot to pick up on those. I lived with friends here (in an outbuilding/barn) for 6 months to get my first little couple acre piece. I had to be "in the mix" to get that pulled off.

I got most of the rest off a guy who bought at auction (I had no money then), held for a couple years, and doubled his money selling to me later - I got lucky that he would do that in the late 90's. To put that in perspective, that means I got my next 27 acres for $17,000. Later, I bought another 11, but that cost me $19,000 two years ago, from a guy who was going to build a mcmansion on it but who ran out of money.

That land was worthless to any but a nature-lover (mostly vertical, doesn't even grow trees too well), and the rest of the neighborhood who didn't want a mcmansion there cheered that move (but didn't have the scratch, I did) - but it has 3 springs on it, all good water. So now I own the headwaters of my creeks. I know they'll stay pure as a result.

I'm not using most of my land for anything but a place to go and play around, but it's there for me should I desire to change that - like a stack of gold, it makes you feel good even if you don't need it right away.
(maybe PM's could stand for Precious Materials?)


And one of the big attractions here is the other people, few though they are (which I also see as an advantage). My neighbors are mostly awake, mostly know how to work with nature, and are mostly ready for bad times. Farming (even hobby horses) will teach you that without having to have a particular other agenda. Most of them are in disbelief that their pension funds (or whatever) would ever go bust, though, but I'm educating a few of them as to "where the money went - already and it's running on fumes now". It's a hard slog, they don't want to believe it could happen.

As SA says, though - and you don't require a bank holiday for this - a sudden devaluation of the dollar, and they'd pick up in interest real quick. Most are either retired (often young, this place attracts winners) or running some small business, so they're all keenly aware of dollar value.
And they're already in the know about how the gov inflation numbers are pure BS.

This place forces all that on you. The nearest city big enough to have real jobs is an hour drive away when there's no traffic. I was able to run a software dev consultancy fine, since that only needs occasional face to face with customers. It was almost a racket - we did good work of course, but we were able to charge prevailing rates - like silicon valley, while living here where living is very-very cheap, so all the money went into the bank. We all retired now, one of us still under 30 when we decided to fold it up (and quit those 70 hour workweeks so we had time to spend the money anyway!). I made it before 50, so good enough for me!

And here I go rambling off topic again. Shame on me. (hint, I type over 120 wpm) I'll fix up a real thesis and post that on its own thread, and we can all thrash that to pieces, it will be educational at least. I don't claim to have the best or only thinking, not by a long shot - we made all that money by brainstorming in sessions that would have been a little frightening to people not in the know about how we worked. Sometimes it looked like fighting - we knew better - but ideas backed by strong advocates clashing is how you get to the truth the quickest, in some situations at least. And in software at least, having the best plan is always faster than "kludging at the screen", so when it came time to produce, that was very easy and fast - we had planned well. I think that might apply to other aspects of life too.

The trick is to disagree without being disagreeable, or getting angry. That way everyone contributes, and things one guy misses get picked up by another guy so we all benefit.

A bank holiday/run is what the Eurotards are trying to avoid right now. Merkozy are meeting to prepare for Brussels later in the week. They want to change the treaties governing the Eurozone to accommodate the very bankers who took on so much risk in hte first place as well as the welfare state. unfortunately for Europe, the only way out is to revert back to individual currencies. Germany will never give up her sovereignty, and as well they should not. That this is being undertaken by a bunch of technocrats in the first place is frightening in and of itself, but to remove individual sovereign rights from countries is terrifying.

Which is why I see the current stuff as a head-fake, ancona. (Could it be I'm short the euro? Yes!) No way all those countries are going to be convinced to give up their fiscal sovereignty anytime soon, and vote to approve that very quickly.

The only way I see that happening is if they leave some loophole escape clause as big as a barn door, making it a joke. We'll have to watch and keep our skepticism intact for a bit.

This market is so crazy and has so much money on the sides with performance anxiety behind it, even I, the "run and gun cowboy" and wondering what's happening next at the moment. Keeping things small for now, and just following the tickers.

Anyone else note that of late, you can't even day-trade? All the action is at the gap at the beginning, or in the first minute on most days. I've scored a few goodies on those gaps, but also gotten slammed a couple times - net slightly positive on that one.:flail: Gheesh. That's gotta be government (crony?) foolery, else traders would make the thing move more during the day. "It just don't smell right."

DC.. Short interest on the Euro is at a 17 month high. That is NOT a good sign if you are bearish.

kyle bass dead dollar

DCFusor said:

Somewhat relevant, a talk by Kyle Bass on impending doom. I'm going to have to watch the above vids again myself (been awhile). Remember, though, things are a little different for a country like the US that (currently) has reserve currency status. The effects of our printing are less at first, because of that. When (not if?) we abuse that, we lose that status, which takes awhile for everyone go gang up and figure a replacement. When that happens - katie bar the door - the SHTF and it happens very very fast, and it's too late to un-print all the money at that point. But my best guess, and that's all it is, is that they print, hand it to the banks, you get your nominal amount back - but it just won't buy as much as it did when you put it in there. Maybe a lot less.

http://youtu.be/5V3kpKzd-Yw
AC2011 Session 1.2 Come Undone: Kyle Bass redux - YouTube

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in this video, at about the 47:30 mark kyle bass says that in a discussion with a high level obama figure(not named) says the plan is to kill the dollar.
wow. more preps and PMs to be collected.
thanks for the great info!

hamsackbag said:

in this video, at about the 47:30 mark kyle bass says that in a discussion with a high level obama figure(not named) says the plan is to kill the dollar.
wow. more preps and PMs to be collected.
thanks for the great info!

Click to expand...

It's going to have to happen soon otherwise he wont be in office to kill it.

swissaustrian said:

Have you guys seen this?
Biden and Obama were advised to institute a bank holiday the first day Obama was in office. And they called Jon fucking Corzine asking for his opinion:
...

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Wow. Disgusting. Nice find.

Look at today's market action, it speaks for itself. A 150 point rocket ride straight up in the pre-market, sideways travel in a fifteen point range until about two or so, then a hundred point give back, and all on craptastic volume.

You guys see?

pmbug.com is one of the very best places on the ´Net for this kind of information and the back-and-forth!

I have enjoyed this thread very much. I certainly did not know about Biden asking POS Corzine about a Bank Holiday. Disgusting is absolutely right.

And DCFusor demonstrates how HARD to be ready for anything. That is really great how you were able to persist so that you could have three springs on your land, and how hard you had to work just to get good property. And then learn to work it. Having like-minded neighbors.

ancona does show a pathway for us at the beginning. Some ex-urban land. Getting to know the neighbors. Stocking up.

Reading this thread today has brightend up my day! And it was already doing OK because of a successful visit to 5 customers in a part of Lima I had been to before. As I sometimes write at ZH (for something well said/done):

+ $55,000!

I think the plan to kill the dollar (if by that you mean devaluation) is ongoing and lasts longer than an administration. Seems all fiat is always in a bit of a race to the bottom, that's been my premise for quite awhile and its served me well to have that assumption. The only question globally is which horse is ahead at the moment. In normal times, no one country is allowed to get too far out of line without serious repercussions. Now that it's pretty much a disorganized mob, there are currencies trying to grab a quick advantage it seems. This is a race where it's often best to not quite win - be second or third to the bottom, perhaps, which is where I think the buck is trying to head. That way, they can make all sorts of ridiculous "strong dollar" claims, while actually it's only strong compared to utter crap. Still crap, though.

It always makes me laugh when people compare gold to the dollar. Gold IS the comparison to the dollar, not the dollar's "value" against a basket of other crap fiat.
Duh.

And oh, I have tight stops on that euro short - but for the moment, the steamroller did jump ahead a little, but is now fading fast, I think - the trade is way green at the moment. I might hop out and hop back in on the (probably very short lived) hopium blast the various EU meetings could produce. You never get broke by banking profits, and tomorrow is another day...another bunch of cliches, I know.

I think cliche, old wives tales, parables, eternal verities have a reason to live, which is why they do. They are non-threatening ways to toss a clue to someone who really doesn't get it - who is in W Pauli's words "not even wrong" without angering them or putting them off too badly. Later, when they do get it - they realize the wisdom contained in some overused pithy saying. I know "don't catch a falling knife" had that effect on me...

And DoChen, yeah, there was some sweat - but to add another eternal verity here - if you do what you love, you'll never work a day in your life. It wasn't that bad. I wouldn't wish that life on an enemy, only someone I loved. I'd take a bath in that sweat any day because it led to something good on the planet that I can point to and say - but for me, that wouldn't exist, I DID That. What more riches can one have? yet there are more - friends. The rest, they go poof in the wind as you've been known to say.

And I'm not ready for *anything*, not hardly. Just more so than many. Could be I worried all the wrong stuff after all, humans do that and it's a big topic in the security business - how we fail to do good risk assessment. I do know that the more-common events are handled, which is a good feeling, however. And that may be the main payoff - the good feeling. Fine, it's worth it on that level.

DCFusor said:

I know it's really dangerous to pull a gun on someone like me - everything within my arms reach would be flying at your face instantly in the attempt to distract you enough to close the distance and kill you bare-handed, immediately.

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...you are quite right on that! From the horse's mouth, (one of the ppl I was learning self-defense from - a former polish "FORMOZA" commando - equivalent of Navy Seals, only better/tougher/etc ), he said that in the scenarios they are practicing with law enforcement/anti-terrorist units etc., when someone is reaching for a secured gun, to defend himself from a knife-holding attacker, if the distance between them is less than 6-8 meters, the gunner has already lost (it takes more to prepare to shot & shot, than to close that distance and stab him). Good to know such a little facts, when the sheer determination and fast acting can save you from being a victim, if you can avoid the "hare in the headlights" freeze moment, and start acting immediately on the visible threat.

And DCFusor, thanks a lot for your posts, much appreciated! It was me among others, who you are addressing, by saying that it takes more than a shopping spree to get the appropriate piece of land, and start living it. Well, I'd love to be in a position to do as you say, the problem is, I do not have enough dough at my hands ATM, to do so. My strategy is as follows:

-educate myself as much as possible about aquaponics/smallholding, try it small scale on my rented property.
-keep looking for a bargain derelict farms in a workable distance from the small town I work/live in (anything within 1h bicycle ride one way, ie about max 15clicks would be ideal)
-keep my current work for as long as possible (working for a very stable (well, at least for now...) Fortune 500 corp. ATM, to provide an income for as long as possible - while getting "off the system" in other regards.
-starting my own recycling/green energy business in parallel, small scale - to get practical know how, I have few ideas that I'd like to POCed them & see how it eventually sells (have couple of ideas, want to see how they could pan out).
-avoid mortgage at all costs as a cholera, last thing I want would be to be reposessed in the time of extreme crisis, having invested all my savings and energy into that smallholding, prior to that.

As for the prices of land you mention, hmmm.... I can only envy you! Here in this socialist f...g EU, all the farming subsidies/forestation schemes (sponsored by taxpayers) and stuff like that, have elevated prices of the land to absolute absurd levels (ie, expect prices in the range of €10k+/acre of farmland here in Ireland, and actually INCREASED, during 2011 - which is an absolute nonsense and a show-stopper for me, thank you very much). Not to mention, that even if you OWN a land, you might very well NOT get permission to build on it - actually, if you are not from the area originally (much less so, if you are a foreigner), your chances are slim to none to obtain the building permit. IF you buy a woodland - huh, huh, you will be ALLOWED to CAMP on the site for max 28 days a year, in a caravan. Building in the woodland? Huh, huh.... good luck, even if you are as local as humanly possible.

So I guess everyone has to plan according to his own situation, and while I admire your efforts and quite frankly envy you both the timing and the outcome, I can only do as much as I can in MY situation and with what I believe will be the end game, most probably...

Thanks again for sharing your experiences - definitely changed my views quite a bit, but still, I am where I am and have to plan&act accordingly...

regards!

bushi

it sounds like the possibility of purchasing a good piece of land and getting the skills and infrastructure together in an acceptable time frame is not so good.

However you talk about the possibility of trying out aquaponics and general growing on your rented land.

Which leads me to ponder how realistic it might be to rent a suitable piece of land / lot ?

It might be that your landlord would consider a deal where in a SHTF situation, you pay your rent with food and in the mean time you get the prepping moving and build the skills. Not much point slinging you out if no one can pay any rent and payment with fresh food ( or even food stored ) makes sense.

Downside risk, you get slung out and nowhere to put all your gear.
Upside, you are in a good location and can deal with a SHTF situation.

Ive rented 3 acres of grassland to my daughter and son in law on the basis of - free for the moment but a share of the meat from the small suckler herd of cows n calves should TSHTF.

Would be happy to agree similar with a non relative ( only no rent free bollox )

bushi said:

.farmland here in Ireland, actually INCREASED, during 2011 - which is an absolute nonsense and a show-stopper for me, thank you very much. Not to mention, that even if you OWN a land, you might very well NOT get permission to build on it - actually, if you are not from the area originally (much less so, if you are a foreigner), your chances are slim to none to obtain the building permit. IF you buy a woodland - huh, huh, you will be ALLOWED to CAMP on the site for max 28 days a year, in a caravan. Building in the woodland? Huh, huh.... good luck, even if you are as local as humanly possible.

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Ok heres one scheme that might work ( nearly did this one a coupla years ago but too many other daft schemes already running )

Buy the patch of woodlands.
Use it as a hatchery and rearing area for pheasants, which you then supply to commercial shoots. ( genuine demand )

This achieves several things -
it gets you accepted by neighbouring landowners, cos this is an ok use of the land and no threat to them.
it gets a decent fence round the outside and keeps casual intruders out.
it creates a justification for a water and electricity connection or a borehole and genny.
and most importantly you need a decent shed !
plus, of course, you legally have to have basic welfare facilities, which you cheerfully show your neighbours ....
Ok, you have to treat the project as a serious venture at this stage and possibly even make an operating profit.

So once phase 1 is ticking along nicely you need to get the attention of 'anti shooting nature lovers' who seem to target you and cut holes in your fencing to release the birds ( be imaginative here and try not to loose too many birds )

thus justifying having to post a guard ............ which your friendly neighbours would see as entirely reasonable .......

so its a bit of an upgrade in the shed ( much better than bringing in a caravan ) with basic overnight facilities ........

What i am trying to describe is a way of quietly establishing a bug out base in a way that keeps the system and the natives onside.

My own 'Bugout 2' evolved in a similar way and no one ever showed concern, cos we were open about what we intended to do, did planning notifications and created a 'traditional animal shelter' in the woods.
Years later and while its still not an official dwelling, when the feds were eventually tipped off, we could demonstrate enough continuous use of its current use, for them to leave us alone.

Bugout 1 (where I am right now ) looks like an office but has a piece of wall with hidden hinges and latches, that hides a space with shower, toilet, wash machine etc.
The big office table has hidden latches and hinges to open up to reveal ......
the bed, under which is ........
the bath (-;

And of course Im working late / nights writing a book ........... more like planning bugout 3 (-;


Quiet, organic, no eyesore, mess, junk or scruffy buildings and work at being friends with your neighbours.

It can be done ...............

Gerald Celente is predicting a US bank holiday and "economic martial law" in 2012 in his new trends journal.
He has a guest writer, Paul Craig Roberts, who disagrees, though. He doesn´t think that bank runs, as causes for bh´s, can occur when central banks backstop commercial banks no matter what. He is right on that imho. The laws against unlimited cash withdrawls also help the banks. He misses one point, though:
As I´ve written earlier in this thread, bank holidays can also be used to institute a monetary reform which ALWAYS includes an unfavorable exchange rate between the old and the new currency.

Unobtanium said:

Does anyone know if China has a Rothschild/IMF central bank?

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I am of the impression that all of China is a Bank of Rothschilds experiment.
case in point: i recently helped an importer unload several crates straight from an overseas conex container. every box had a star of david on it. every box.
then i did a bit more research. the rothschilds and the Khazars are all over china, and have been since before WWII, playing both sides. in fact, the chinese have a last name "Li" reserved for members of the banking cartel.
sorry if its a bit choppy, coffee has not kicked in.