Do any of you invest in Treasury Bills?

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Brought I bonds when they were over 9 %, not unhappy with returns so I'll hold for a while. As for now, I think I'm better off with T bills. jm2c

November 2023 I-Bond Rate | Buy I-Bonds Now Or Wait​

Oct 14, 2023

11:37

September’s inflation numbers, the November I-Bond variable & fixed rate & why we keep buying I-Bonds - that's what I'll be talking about in today's YouTube video!
 
... hedge-fund billionaire Leon Cooperman, ...

In a transcript of comments made in an interview at CNBC’s Financial Advisor Summit, the Omega Advisors chairman and CEO said ...
...
As for where investors should put their money? He said his first choice is composed of his “favorite cheap stocks,” followed by short-dated Treasurys in the one- to two-year period, and then long-term bonds are his least favored.

The storied money manager said there’s little case to be made for investing in long-term bonds offering yields below 5.5%, and he’d wait until interest rates go above 5% to buy bonds. “In the long term, you’re much better off in stocks and you can find a lot of attractive stocks,” he said.
...

 

Will TIPS Yields Go Higher | Should I Buy TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities 2023)​

Oct 15, 2023


12:31

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS): the 5-Year TIPS recent highs, should you buy at the upcoming auction or on the secondary market & are we planning on buying any? Watch on & find out as we talk about all of this & more today!

Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@DiamondNestEgg/videos
 

How High Will Treasury Yields Go | Treasury Yields Hit Back-To-Back 17 Year Record Highs​

October 18, 2023


11:47

Buying bonds during times of uncertainty as US Treasuries (2 Year, 5 Year, 10 year, 20 Year & 30 Year) continue to hit highs not seen in nearly two decades. And as many of you know, we think Treasury yields will go even higher & that's what we'll be talking about in today's video:
1. Bond market volatility
2. What can T-bill, note & bond investors do about this?
3. Why we said no to a “safe” 7.16% new issue bond
 
Yield on the ten year is sniffing 5%. That is getting to be more tempting than it should be...
I'll wait for 8%, it can't be too far off. The idiots in DC keep spending like it's nothing (that's what the dollar is becoming) short of a depression I will wait and keep buying TBills.
 

Can Treasury Rates Go To 7% or Even 8%? | Treasury Yields Move Higher​

Oct 23, 2023


11:34

Can Treasury rates go to 7% or even 8%? How high will Treasury yields go? What’s Fed Governor Powell’s latest message on future rate hikes & what recent developments could keep rates even higher for even longer? Watch on & find out!

Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@DiamondNestEgg/videos
 
 
Think of all the suckers who bought @ 0% because they were told rates were going negative. Chickens gotta come home at some point.
 
...
The total amount of Treasury securities outstanding has reached $33.68 trillion. Of that amount, $26.56 trillion are held by the public, and $7.12 trillion are securities held by government entities, such as government pension funds, the Social Security Trust Fund, etc. Those securities “held internally” are not traded and don’t have direct consequences on the supply of new securities to the market.

Here we’re talking about the debt held by the “public,” such as foreign holders, the Fed, cash-rich corporations, banks, bond funds, insurance companies, individuals, and folks like me. And that public is going to have to buy the additional $1.59 trillion in securities by the end of Q1.

Foreign holders have been increasing their holdings at a glacial pace, much more slowly than the issuance increased, and foreign holders’ share of marketable securities has dropped sharply.

The Fed, as part of QT, has shed $860 billion in Treasury securities so far, and its holdings’ share of marketable Treasuries has declined sharply.

So US investors, pension funds, insurance companies, bond funds, etc., need to be persuaded to step up to the table and buy those securities. And to pull ever more buyers to the table, yields have risen, and the tsunami of new issuance indicates that even more buyers, reluctant buyers, will have to be pulled in with even higher longer-term yields to come.

 

Highest I-Bond Fixed Rate In 16 Years | Should I Buy or Sell I-Bonds (November 2023 I-Bond Rate)​

Nov 2, 2023


13:00

5.27% is the *NEW* annualized November I-Bond rate. Watch on as we talk about: the highest I-Bond fixed rate in 16 years, what your new rate will be depending on when you bought your I-Bonds & why we’re buying more I-Bonds & who might want to do what we’re doing?
 

Why Are Treasury Yields Falling (Treasury Yields Down All Week)​

Nov 5, 2023

16:16

Why are Treasury yields collapsing? What three big events happened in the Treasury market this past week to trigger this downward trend & do we think this is just a market over-reaction? Watch on & find out in Part 1 of this two-part Treasury yields up | Treasury yields down series!
 

Have Treasury Rates Peaked | How High Will Treasury Yields Go | Why Might Treasury Rates Fall Again​

Oct 7, 2023


17:09

The million dollar Treasury question at the moment - did you miss the peak? Watch on as I talk about why we don’t think you (and I) have missed the peak in Treasury rates, what could lead Treasury rates to stay where they are or to even go lower right now & what you can do now as a bond investor!
 

Highest I-Bond Fixed Rate In 16 Years | Should I Buy or Sell I-Bonds (November 2023 I-Bond Rate)​

Nov 2, 2023


13:00

5.27% is the *NEW* annualized November I-Bond rate. Watch on as we talk about: the highest I-Bond fixed rate in 16 years, what your new rate will be depending on when you bought your I-Bonds & why we’re buying more I-Bonds & who might want to do what we’re doing?

Random thoughts on I Bonds in 2023, 2024

 
Here is a thought on those I bonds I sort of found out by experience. The interest on I bonds is taxable when they are cashed in. My mother and mother in law both ended up in nursing homes and incurred horrendous medical bills that provided deductions that literally wiped out their taxable income. With all of that in mind for many of us that end up in a home the I bonds would end up being tax free as the medical deductions would wipe out retirement taxable income. This is a horrible thought but supposedly half of us will end up in one of those places and so I Bonds have therefore this 50% potential of never being taxable for those that plan ahead for potential nursing home residence.
 
Last week people were worried that the bond market had peaked, give me a break.

 
This could end up impacting the Treasury markets:
A new addition to the current convergence trend between crypto and traditional finance is Midas, a stablecoin backed by U.S. Treasuries that's planning to unleash its stUSD token on decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms like MakerDAO, Uniswap and Aave in the coming weeks, according to a presentation deck seen by CoinDesk.

The Midas stablecoin project intends to buy Treasuries via asset manager BlackRock and use Circle Internet Financial's USDC stablecoin as an on-ramp, according to the deck. ...

 

NEGATIVE! Moody's Slashes US Credit Ratings Outlook | Treasury Yields Weekly Recap​

Nov 12, 2023

9:36

Shortly after bond markets closed on Friday, Moody’s cut its US credit rating outlook to “negative” from “stable”. What might this mean for US debt's last AAA credit rating, what moved Treasury yields this past week & which three events that might move Treasury yields this coming week? Watch on in this week's Treasury yields recap to find out!

WATCH NEXT (referenced in video)
⭐ Have Treasury yields peaked: https://youtu.be/mfvYH0BbGLg
⭐ Why 7.16% isn't good enough: https://youtu.be/OdiTbbG8Q1Y
 

Investing In Treasury Notes & Bonds | What Are They, When Interest Is Paid & When Auctions Happen​

Nov 14, 2023

12:46

Are you thinking of buying longer-dated Treasury notes & bonds? If yes, watch on as I talk about:
1. What’s the difference between Treasury bills, notes & bonds?
2. How do the interest & principal payments on longer-dated Treasury notes & bonds work?
3. What’s the difference between the interest rate & the high yield at auction?

WATCH NEXT (referenced in video)
Treasury Bill vs Cash Management Bill: https://youtu.be/EwrPxaTcM8Q
What Is Accrued Interest: https://youtu.be/PdFkteP0xhI
 

What's Right For You? | Buying Treasury Notes & Bonds At Auction vs On Secondary Market​


12:14

💡 Why we prefer to buy shorter-dated Treasury bills at auction & longer-dated Treasury notes & bonds on the secondary market
💡Some considerations to keep in mind when buying Treasury notes & bonds on the secondary market &
💡Could buying on the secondary market be right for you?

That's what we're talking about in today's video!

WATCH NEXT (referenced in video)
What Is Accrued Interest: https://youtu.be/PdFkteP0xhI

SOURCES
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctio...
https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw...
 

How To Buy Treasury Notes & Bonds On Fidelity (Step-By-Step) | Secondary Market​

Nov 26, 2023

10:45

How to buy Treasury notes & bonds on Fidelity | Step-by-step tutorial for the secondary market - that’s what I’ll be walking you through in today’s video!

WATCH NEXT (referenced in video)
⭐ Investing In Treasury Notes & Bonds | Auction vs Secondary Market: https://youtu.be/lSSjKMHZhIc
⭐ Have Treasury Yields Peaked: https://youtu.be/mfvYH0BbGLg
⭐ Accrued Interest 101: https://youtu.be/PdFkteP0xhI

SOURCES
https://www.fidelity.com/
 
The Biden administration is worried about the stability in the market for U.S. government debt, and the nation’s top securities regulator is implementing new rules it hopes will help avoid a crisis if a major player in the U.S. Treasury market goes under.

The Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday approved a new rule that it hopes will increase the share of government-debt trades that are centrally cleared.
...
The rule set for adoption Wednesday would force clearinghouses to change their rules to require that their members submit for clearing all eligible secondary market transactions.

The hope is this will increase the share of trades in the market that are centrally cleared, with a recent study by the Treasury Market Practice Group estimating that only 13% of trades are executed in this fashion.

Financial firms will have to comply with the new rules for cash Treasury transactions by Dec. 31, 2025 and for repo transactions by June 30, 2026.

The rule is just part of a series Treasury market reform measures, including a proposal under consideration by the SEC to require that any financial firm that trades more than $25 billion per month in Treasurys register as a dealer with the agency and that platforms that provide marketplaces for Treasurys register as broker dealers.
...


I don't know this market well enough to have an opinion on the likely effects (intended or otherwise).
 
Lock in rates now. I bought some 3 month CDs at 5.35% last week. Rates are probably topped out right now.
 
Treasury yields fell to their lowest levels in months on Thursday as investors digested guidance issued by the Federal Reserve about the outlook for interest rates as its final policy meeting of the year concluded Wednesday.

At 6 a.m. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by 8 basis points at 3.951%, breaking below the 4% mark for the first time since August. The 2-year Treasury yield was last more than 14 basis points lower at 4.334%. It had fallen by as many as 25 basis points on Wednesday.

 

LIVE TODAY! Have Treasury Yields Peaked | Fed Rate Cuts 2024​

Dec 15, 2023


13:20
 

US SEC set to adopt Treasury market dealer rule as part of market overhaul​

February 6, 20245:56 AM EST

WASHINGTON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. securities regulator is set on Tuesday to adopt a rule requiring proprietary traders and other firms that routinely deal in U.S. government bonds to register as broker-dealers, subjecting them to stricter oversight.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rule is part of a broader effort to fix structural issues regulators say are causing liquidity problems in the $26 trillion Treasury market.

Those changes, which include pushing more trades through clearing houses, represent the biggest overhaul of the Treasury market in decades, market participants say.

More:

 
I just scored 5.5% on a 9-month credit union CD on Jan 31, 2024. Hard to justify buying stocks at all time highs when you can get 5.5% with zero risk.
 
Please people... stop refering to government debt as Zero risk.... They never pay it off.

Hence this quote.
structural issues regulators say are causing liquidity problems in the $26 trillion Treasury market.
Sure guys... maybe people just don't/can't buy it all up anymore.

 

Record-Setting TIPS Auction This Week? (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities)​

Feb 20, 2024
Still worried about inflation & wondering about this week's possible record-setting TIPS auction? That's what we're talking about in today's video & specifically:

1. Why we think the likely yields for this week's auction of the 30-Year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities looks attractive
2. Why we’re planning on buying at the upcoming auction
3. What we have planned for the rest of 2024


12:52

SOURCES
- https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issu...
- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DF...

WATCH NEXT
- TIPS Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list...
 
Treasury’s $16 billion auction of 20-year notes produced “very ugly” results Wednesday afternoon, with dealers stepping in to take a higher-than-average 21.2% of the sale, according to Tom di Galoma, co-head of global rates trading for BTIG in New York.

The auction results triggered an afternoon selloff in government debt ahead of the 2 p.m. Eastern time release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s Jan. 30-31 policy meeting.

Analysts will be looking at the extent to which the Fed minutes reflect lingering worry about price pressures, given firmer-than-expected inflation and jobs data that have since encouraged policymakers to push back against a March interest-rate cut.

Fed-funds futures traders are pricing in a 93.5% probability that the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged at between 5.25% and 5.50% on March 20, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The chance of at least a 25-basis-point rate cut by June is seen at 72.3%. The central bank is mostly expected to deliver at least three quarter-point rate cuts by December.
...

 

Why China, Japan And The Fed Are Shaking Up The $26 Trillion U.S. Treasury Market​

Feb 29, 2024

When investors think of the financial markets, the first thing that likely comes to mind is the stock market.

But there is a bigger, less-flashy counterpart to the equity market: the bond market. At the heart of the fixed income space lies U.S. Treasurys, one of the safest investments in the world.

"We have not paid attention to the Treasury market because it was a market for foreigners or for the Fed," said Priya Misra, fixed income portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. "Now it's a market for all of us, and it's giving you better yield. So it's something which we should not ignore.

"Buyers of U.S. Treasurys have been changing, with major players including China, Japan and the Federal Reserve seeing their respective holdings decline in recent years. The shift could have broad implications for the U.S. economy.

"What we're observing is that [the new buyers] are a lot more price sensitive," said Anders Persson, global fixed income chief investment officer at Nuveen. "They're just not quite as sticky."

Watch the video above to find out more about why major buyers are fleeing the U.S. Treasury market, the impact on yields and the economy at large, and how investors can best navigate the market going forward. 12 mins, 22 secs long.



Chapters:
0:00 Introduction
1:56 The $26.5 trillion U.S. Treasury market
3:29 Who are the buyers?
4:48 Changing of buyers
7:32 Impact on the economy
9:58 What’s next?
 
I have a great idea...Take everybody's social security payroll deductions and buy T-bills!
 

Where Are T-Bill Yields Headed (2024) | Have T-Bill Yields Peaked?​

Streamed live 36 minutes ago
#jenniferlammer #bonds #fixedincome
We are back on YouTube! And continuing where we left off a few months ago - have T-Bill yields peaked? Let's catch up on T-Bill rates, what we're doing with our T-Bills & some interest rate & inflation considerations for 2024!

 
Not T-bills, I Bonds in this one. Easy peasy to redeem @ treasury direct.

How To Redeem I-Bonds (Step-By-Step) To Buy New Ones At The Current 1.3% Fixed Rate​

Apr 2, 2024
#jenniferlammer #bonds #fixedincome
It's the last month to buy I-Bonds at the highest fixed rate in 16 years. Learn more about how to redeem your I-Bonds at lower (or no) fixed rate to buy new I-Bonds at the 1.3% current fixed rate (for all I-Bonds issued on or before 4/30/2024)!


11:31

WATCH NEXT:
I-Bond Tax Withholding: https://youtu.be/PEWRMfbNgLs
How To Buy I-Bonds: https://youtu.be/adzmox__2zM

SOURCES
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/saving...
 
I got 5.35 on Friday for a 9 month CD from JP Morgan.
 
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