Dow....?

[ancona]

Anyone besides me see this pattern on the DOW today?

 

[pmbug]

What goes up must come down, except for he DOW riding the wings of the PPT/QE.

 

[DoChenRollingBearing]

...

Hi ancona,

Yeah I saw it, but I do not subscribe much to it... The Fed can monkey with the Dow all they want, print all they want, etc., but they will not be able to hold off the end-game when the time is up. And when would that be? Well, that's why we are all here...

I sold off another tranche of my stocks a week or so ago (two ETFs that follow stock indices). Hey, you don't go bankrupt by taking a profit (and by avoiding taking on debt).

 

[ancona]

Now that volume is back down to near nothing, below some of the previous low volumes even, I wonder how long it will be until the Black Swan lands on the bow of this overloaded ship of economic refugees, taking it to the bottom.

Everything I see points to something not very good on the horizon, yet the newstainment bobbleheads keep on cheering the invisible recovery as if it was actually happening, and talking up nonsense stocks as if those PE's were real.

I see companies being valued waaay above where they should be valued, I see the bond market as a total farce and I see Europe going up in flames. With over 50% youth unemployment, something has got to give sooner than later and when it does, then we sit helplessly by and watch the Great Euro Experiment melt down in to a pile of goo. For a short time, I think the dollar will benefit and rise to some ridiculous point before crashing through the floor as people realize the only difference between us and them is the ocean between us. Get some popcorn folks because at the very least, it's going to be entertaining [in a sick, twisted kind of way].

 

[DCFusor]

I've been seriously thinking about putting on some strangles, but may have missed my shot as the VIX rises and makes that more expensive (bigger moves required for a decent payout). I'm seeing a world where both a call and a put might be profitable, closed at different times over the next few months.

We have quite the interesting calendar coming up - congress comes back, debt ceiling/sequestration finally hitting, maybe an actual budget (don't hold breath)...interesting things going on with gold vaults going empty. This on top of the contradictoary "exogenous event news" that seems to be building overseas.

Some people think it's all September or by then. I don't. I think we need to look at past November - we have elections too....and we know the money pumps run overtime for those. We can also be fairly sure the election results are going to be disappointing.

EG, we could easily at some point go even more overbought than we are - I expect wildness in both directions, and soon (before December at any rate). Though I admit - I might bias the trade to the downside, which is more likely to be big and deep. After all, a couple of huge strip malls around here that were thriving in 2008 are either still empty or have just one store left. Some recovery.

Oops, I said that in my out-loud voice, so y'all can rib me if I'm wrong.

 

[pmbug]

I never fault a man for thinking - even out loud.

 

[mmerlinn]

... and I see Europe going up in flames. With over 50% youth unemployment, something has got to give sooner than later and when it does, then we sit helplessly by and watch the Great Euro Experiment melt down in to a pile of goo. ...

Look what happened in Europe the last time we had such economic distress in the 30s - a man came from nowhere (not even officially elected) and in a few short years plunged us into a World War. History is repeating. With the German elections on the horizon and Merkel losing support, everything is setup for a man to come from nowhere (without even being elected) and to take the bull by the horns. The end result WILL be the same - a World War.

There is a power vacuum in Europe, particularly in Germany. That CANNOT last.

The man I am watching is Freiherr (Baron) Karl Theodor von- und zu-Guttenberg who is currently living in Connecticut and who has access to some of America's top military secrets due to his being a member of one of America's top think tanks on defense and military matters. Having a foreign national of his stature having access to our secrets runs shivers down my spine. What if he becomes a new Reichsfuehrer and uses that knowledge against us? He is one of Germany's best known and best liked politicians in spite of the plagiarism scandal, so if things keep getting worse, the German populace may demand that he return and may welcome him back to solve the current problems.

 

[DCFusor]

I'm quite surprised, actually, that the EU hasn't gone up in flames with riots on the streets this summer (nice weather for rioting). It's not like things are getting better there - is it that people are just becoming numb and accepting?

 

[bushi]

I'm quite surprised, actually, that the EU hasn't gone up in flames with riots on the streets this summer (nice weather for rioting). It's not like things are getting better there - is it that people are just becoming numb and accepting?

from what I see here in Ireland, Fusor, it is indeed the case. PEople are being fed the scraps from the master's table (all kinds of benefits), and that keeps them fed with shit, and quiet & complacent. The whole boiling frog thing - they seem NOT to realize, that even benefits, while even nominally shrinking ("austerity" measures), are buying them less & less in terms of actual goods. Jobs are scarce and far between - apart from couple of sectors (IT is doing well, thanks Gods of code...). The whole discussion seem to revolve around "austerity or not, and if, then how much" (like, simple arithmetic is a matter of a political debate today, you know, and if you talk long enough about "social justce" on the telly, than suddenly, 2+2 will become five, six, or eight perhaps, if we scapegoat "the rich"), while all the elephants in the room are comfortably grazing on the public money from taxes (or borrowed, by collateralizing my future taxes)

There seem to be movements, like UKIP in the UK, or Direct Democracy Ireland, that seem to be building momentum, and at least are talking SENSE, which is such a refreshing thing, that I am paying attention to both, regardless of the fact, if they represent my political beliefs or not.

But public in general, is completely oblivious as for the real causes of their troubles, how to get around them & GOd forbid, how to sort them out. Society and a group think, is a really dangerous thing, in my opinion.

 

[Jay]

(like, simple arithmetic is a matter of a political debate today, you know,


thats a keeper...

 

[DSAbug]

Guys..

Don't assume that QE and the fed are going to be able to keep this crap going forever. Especially if the bond market cracks... Even with all the heavy buying of treasuries, the fed hasn't been able to stop rates from rising. The bond market makes the stock market look small by comparison and they are very closely connected. I mean seriously, if we see the 10 year and 2 year start to move much more, it's going to impact the stock market something fierce.

Understand that low rates are a key point in many quant models. If those rates change enough, what was once seen as a bargain immediately can turn into a strong sell recommendation. IMHO, it's a matter of when, not if. Do NOT buy into this "stock market can go up because of a weak dollar" Meme..

 

[pmbug]

Guys..

Don't assume that QE and the fed are going to be able to keep this crap going forever. ...

Be able to? Moot point! Haven't you heard? Tapering starts next month. :rotflmbo:

 

[DSAbug]

Be able to? Moot point! Haven't you heard? Tapering starts next month. :rotflmbo:

Yeah good luck "tapering" if the bond market crashes.

 

[DCFusor]

One wonders how many of those models based on treasuries as the "risk-free" rate were updated to reflect the fed's meddling there. I've seen no end of supposedly smart articles (and all the old books) saying well, the market should do this if rf rates do that. Yet we know the rates are artificially repressed for perhaps the first time in modern history.

Could that be why my trading is doing so well - not that I'm good, but that they are broken?