ancona
Praying Mantis
We talk quite a bit amongst ourselves here on subjects ranging from spot prices to ammunition storage, but I have yet to see any discussion about sustainability within a significant and protracted downturn. One supposes that those of us who are preparing or who have already prepared, have done or are doing enough, and that we are doing the right things. In recent conversations with some like minded folks, the subject of sustainability arose. In the context of depth and duration, we began to discuss the idea of a multi-year total collapse, with the complete failure of just-in-time business models, crop failure, world-wide civil unrest and protracted power failures due to terrorism [domestic or otherwise] or just plain neglect. None of us had considered the possibility that widespread failures of significant duration [2+ months] could occur with internet connectivity, telephone and cell service and power distribution. Nearly all of us presumed that at some point relatively quickly, some entity or another would work out [at least minimally] some sort of food distribution scheme and at least rudimentary communications capabilities.
But what if that doesn’t happen? What if the disruption is so widespread and the mistrust between countries, businesses and people becomes so deep that the system fails: can it be “re-booted”? The conversation became extremely animated, with many dark possibilities being propounded. At some point, it was suggested that we make a list of items we deemed to be of greatest importance, so we could discuss them intelligently and explore options. Many items were merely extensions of plans already being implemented, but others were preparations we had not even thought of. The following list identifies what I feel are the most important issues regarding sustainability through a severe economic/energy/ food depression, and while the likelihood of complete breakdown is remote it remains a possibility, and I think therefore that it is worthy of discussion.
1. Communications. We have grown so completely accustomed to the availability of cell phones, that most of us don’t give it a second thought. Many of us in fact, do not even have the “old style” land lines any more. As a boy, I remember an old man down the way a bit had a ham radio and the ever present 65 foot antenna in the back yard. He explained to us boys that no matter what happened, he would be able to communicate to any other ham operator just about anywhere in the states. In fact, under the right conditions [a “skip” I think he called it] he could talk to folks in other countries. A small network of these could provide news from other areas and possibly communication with loved ones. Walkie-talkies could be used, but have limited range, and are open frequencies, in other words you lose all privacy [such as we have it now anyway] There should be more discussion on communication because the failure of our current systems would mean a failure of commerce as we know it. ATM cards wouldn’t work, and credit cards would be useless. On a more basic level, communication with far flung family and friends would no longer be possible.
2. Fuel. Think about this for a minute if you will. Without regular deliveries of fuel, many industries just stop. Gas stations cease to function, power plants are idled, trains are side-tracked and interstate trucking goes nowhere. This is the absolute nightmare for a government. Without fuel, many of the most basic functions performed by municipalities such as, sewage treatment, water delivery and road maintenance become impossible. We would see an instantaneous uprising in society without available services. Even with a minimum supply to provide the absolute basic services, folks who cannot get to their jobs or to the store, cannot sustain themselves any longer. This is when it gets really, really ugly. If fuel was to be rationed to power plants, electricity would necessarily be rationed as well, meaning frequent rolling black-outs and a great deal of discomfort for those without solar back-up systems. Hospitals would be required to ration care for all but the sickest of patients, and it becomes likely at this point that those who it is decided are no longer a contributing part of society [i.e. the elderly, infirm or retarded] would no longer get the extraordinary measures they now receive.
3. Food. Straightforward and basic: food. Without it we die. If the just in time delivery mechanism fails, or we experience widespread crop failures, severe or prolonged drought or complications from genetically engineered crops, millions will starve. There is no way around it. The safety net of food on the planet is only about sixty days. That is correct folks….sixty days. Presuming that this food could be distributed in the first place, that is not nearly enough time to permit the people to put in a vegetable garden and grow some of their own food. Those that had the foresight, those who planned and grew a garden and stored up food, will become immediate targets. The hungry will find your food, and do everything they can to take it from you. If starvation becomes the new paradigm, society will have fallen off a cliff, and we revert to dog eat dog. If gardens were encouraged, or even [I hate to say it] subsidized, we could forestall much of the effects that agricultural failure would bring. Folks could use grey water from the sink and bathtub to water the plants, and community gardens like they have in England would be encouraged
4. Nuke Plants. There are hundreds of nuclear plants around the world, reacting away and generating gigawatts of power. These plants require huge amounts of fossil fuel to support their existence. Without trucks, cars and rail, these plants will have a hard time maintaining safe production of electricity. A Nuke plant cannot simply be turned off, as there are a number of steps required to disable a reaction safely. In a chaotic situation, it would be paramount for governments to secure these facilities, and enough fossil fuel to support taking them off line until order is restored, or to insure their safe closure. Imagine France, 80% of their electricity is generated by nuke plants, so if TSHTF, and the people are rioting and pillaging, what is their plan?? While I am certain the government(s) have made provisions for this, the question still has to be asked.
5. Transportation. Picture the chaos that fuel rationing will bring. All of the people who depend on cheap and widely available fuel will be forced to change their ways. No more going to the store solo, no more “cruising”, no more teenagers rolling around with no particular destination. Over the road trucking will become problematic at best. Our food distribution absolutely depends on fuel. If prices escalate too much, or fuel becomes unavailable then the system breaks down. We have ignored our rail system in most of the country for far too long. Without immediate investment into the installation of electric lines over our train tracks to support the use of rail as an alternative to cars, we will be going back to bicycles very quickly. Even bikes require fossil fuels to manufacture the rubber tires, inner tubes, brake cable sheaths, seats and brake pads. It will be important for folks to have a plan when it comes to getting around; a plan that does not include gasoline.
I am interested in a conversation about the finer points of what is a real and very possible situation within which we may all find ourselves [at least on some level] and what solutions we might be able to come up with to insulate ourselves a bit better against some of the hardship and pain that comes along for the ride.
Discussion.
But what if that doesn’t happen? What if the disruption is so widespread and the mistrust between countries, businesses and people becomes so deep that the system fails: can it be “re-booted”? The conversation became extremely animated, with many dark possibilities being propounded. At some point, it was suggested that we make a list of items we deemed to be of greatest importance, so we could discuss them intelligently and explore options. Many items were merely extensions of plans already being implemented, but others were preparations we had not even thought of. The following list identifies what I feel are the most important issues regarding sustainability through a severe economic/energy/ food depression, and while the likelihood of complete breakdown is remote it remains a possibility, and I think therefore that it is worthy of discussion.
1. Communications. We have grown so completely accustomed to the availability of cell phones, that most of us don’t give it a second thought. Many of us in fact, do not even have the “old style” land lines any more. As a boy, I remember an old man down the way a bit had a ham radio and the ever present 65 foot antenna in the back yard. He explained to us boys that no matter what happened, he would be able to communicate to any other ham operator just about anywhere in the states. In fact, under the right conditions [a “skip” I think he called it] he could talk to folks in other countries. A small network of these could provide news from other areas and possibly communication with loved ones. Walkie-talkies could be used, but have limited range, and are open frequencies, in other words you lose all privacy [such as we have it now anyway] There should be more discussion on communication because the failure of our current systems would mean a failure of commerce as we know it. ATM cards wouldn’t work, and credit cards would be useless. On a more basic level, communication with far flung family and friends would no longer be possible.
2. Fuel. Think about this for a minute if you will. Without regular deliveries of fuel, many industries just stop. Gas stations cease to function, power plants are idled, trains are side-tracked and interstate trucking goes nowhere. This is the absolute nightmare for a government. Without fuel, many of the most basic functions performed by municipalities such as, sewage treatment, water delivery and road maintenance become impossible. We would see an instantaneous uprising in society without available services. Even with a minimum supply to provide the absolute basic services, folks who cannot get to their jobs or to the store, cannot sustain themselves any longer. This is when it gets really, really ugly. If fuel was to be rationed to power plants, electricity would necessarily be rationed as well, meaning frequent rolling black-outs and a great deal of discomfort for those without solar back-up systems. Hospitals would be required to ration care for all but the sickest of patients, and it becomes likely at this point that those who it is decided are no longer a contributing part of society [i.e. the elderly, infirm or retarded] would no longer get the extraordinary measures they now receive.
3. Food. Straightforward and basic: food. Without it we die. If the just in time delivery mechanism fails, or we experience widespread crop failures, severe or prolonged drought or complications from genetically engineered crops, millions will starve. There is no way around it. The safety net of food on the planet is only about sixty days. That is correct folks….sixty days. Presuming that this food could be distributed in the first place, that is not nearly enough time to permit the people to put in a vegetable garden and grow some of their own food. Those that had the foresight, those who planned and grew a garden and stored up food, will become immediate targets. The hungry will find your food, and do everything they can to take it from you. If starvation becomes the new paradigm, society will have fallen off a cliff, and we revert to dog eat dog. If gardens were encouraged, or even [I hate to say it] subsidized, we could forestall much of the effects that agricultural failure would bring. Folks could use grey water from the sink and bathtub to water the plants, and community gardens like they have in England would be encouraged
4. Nuke Plants. There are hundreds of nuclear plants around the world, reacting away and generating gigawatts of power. These plants require huge amounts of fossil fuel to support their existence. Without trucks, cars and rail, these plants will have a hard time maintaining safe production of electricity. A Nuke plant cannot simply be turned off, as there are a number of steps required to disable a reaction safely. In a chaotic situation, it would be paramount for governments to secure these facilities, and enough fossil fuel to support taking them off line until order is restored, or to insure their safe closure. Imagine France, 80% of their electricity is generated by nuke plants, so if TSHTF, and the people are rioting and pillaging, what is their plan?? While I am certain the government(s) have made provisions for this, the question still has to be asked.
5. Transportation. Picture the chaos that fuel rationing will bring. All of the people who depend on cheap and widely available fuel will be forced to change their ways. No more going to the store solo, no more “cruising”, no more teenagers rolling around with no particular destination. Over the road trucking will become problematic at best. Our food distribution absolutely depends on fuel. If prices escalate too much, or fuel becomes unavailable then the system breaks down. We have ignored our rail system in most of the country for far too long. Without immediate investment into the installation of electric lines over our train tracks to support the use of rail as an alternative to cars, we will be going back to bicycles very quickly. Even bikes require fossil fuels to manufacture the rubber tires, inner tubes, brake cable sheaths, seats and brake pads. It will be important for folks to have a plan when it comes to getting around; a plan that does not include gasoline.
I am interested in a conversation about the finer points of what is a real and very possible situation within which we may all find ourselves [at least on some level] and what solutions we might be able to come up with to insulate ourselves a bit better against some of the hardship and pain that comes along for the ride.
Discussion.
Last edited by a moderator:
