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It's a mess, a large one to be sure, and all driven by profit motive more than ineptness (well, that's not precise, perhaps "wilful ignorance" is better).
I was even able to detect Fuk at my place in VA under very ideal conditions - a storm formed over it right at the time - flew across the ocean and this country and rained on me. By collecting 200 gal of rain, and getting all the sediment after evaporating it (a couple hundred mg) I was able to detect 4 counts/hour of CS 137 with the best gear the gov money could buy (in 1980 or so), inside a lead castle that weighed over a ton to keep out the natural background I have here. EG 4/3600 bequerel. That's not a lot - it's a factor of 10,000 less than the dirt here - only way I could see it at all was with a good spectrometer, or it'd have been buried in the 120cpm I normally get from the ground and cosmic rays.
Not so bad, for me. More like a feat of detection than anything else.
Note, a friend on the west coast with 10x more sensitive gear than I couldn't see *any* increase over the baseline - and he takes that daily, so it's a real number that means something. Seaweed and fish have always been a little hot (and mercuric). But he didn't get the magic rain transport I got to work with either.
Sadly, I sold out of geiger counters too quick to idiots who don't realize that a new reading means nothing without a pre-accident baseline reading. Yes, Fuk is a big leak - as are the half dozen fully critical, still running highly enriched nuclear reactors we and the Russians have dumped on the sea floor in sub accidents.
And yes, this crap concentrates up the food chain, rather seriously. Thing is, fish from the pacific were *already hot* from the aforementioned classified accidents. This is one reason that it took so long for good IR satellite imagery to get online - someone has to photo-shop out the thermal blooms from those reactors or "the terrorists" might find them and reuse the almost already bomb-grade material (not that they'd live through the attempt - which is why we haven't gotten them back ourselves, it's a nasty business).
I'm in no way forgiving these guys - they did a whole bunch of stupid things in a row to get here.
1. run a reactor for decades past it's design life - profit.
2. run the fuel longer than the reccomended replace/reprocess time - profit
3. build it near the ocean in a place that regularly has tsunamis (plus the nimby effect) - profit, less piping and pumping
#1 is obvious.
#2 means that the fuel when removed is much hotter and harder to keep from melting/vaporizing/catching on fire from the increased decay of the fission products. That's why we pull ours sooner in the cycle.
3 is just stupid profit motive, combined with a fierce NIMBY - note little care/news about the many people in the (poor fishing town) who were killed...obviously we all care less about actual deaths than potential ones. Sick.
Dilution as a solution to pollution won't keep working forever, but just for a sense of scale here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_distribution_on_Earth
IF you really want to freak out, take a geiger counter on an airplane. You get quite a lot more from that than any other thing out there - including things like radioactive seeds in your prostate for cancer therapy, or normal other hospital procedures. I have a friend (in my line of work) who does this fairly often, and is about to decide to shut a business and quit flying because of it.
http://hps.org/publicinformation/ate/faqs/commercialflights.html
If asked, I'll post later a chart of common doses from various stuff - it's a neato pic. Short of it is I see about 2 mrem/year from natural sources, and about that much more from my fusion experiments.
A flight - several mrem/flight. That seems a bit high for my comfort.
People tend to be afraid of the wrong things, fight the last war. Taking our shoes off to fly would be a "security theatre" situation for example, that'll never happen again (and it wasn't stopped by the newly revealed NSA junk - it was the passengers the last few times things like that happened).
The world I grew up in - and presumably most here (born in '53 myself) had twice the background count as now due to atmospheric nuke tests, which we all wisely stopped doing (other than the indians and paks and norks, who are obviously, stupid). It's still above that our ancestors lived in.
Let's hope hormesis is real and good at this level...
The word is - people are stupid. Don't get me started.
I have been following this very closely also (in addition to the La thing, etc.
here's some more bequerel news;
George,
I know that radiophobia plays well and I acknowledge the Fukushima meltdowns as catastrophes of colossal proportions, but you had what I assume was a throw-away sentence in the update that just isn’t borne out by the facts. You stated in your blurb on the anniversary of the Nagasaki bombing that the Fukushima disaster “eems destined to outdo the wartime use of nukes in terms of impacts including long-term loss of life.”
Even in the most fevered dreams of the anti-nukes (at least the ones that acknowledge science and historical data) that is a gross overstatement. I have no doubts I’ll spend the rest of my life having to hear it, but that still won’t make it true. The same thing was said about Chernobyl – that the death toll would be in the hundreds of thousands (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deaths_due_to_the_Chernobyl_disaster). The real death toll is somewhere in the range of 6000 (less than 100 for the accident and immediate response, the rest on estimated cancers) or so and much of that from the Soviets forcing gulag inmates to work in a very high radiation environment, along with some soldiers and engineers who risked their lives to get that situation under control.
In some ways Fukushima was worse than Chernobyl – more plants at the site, a breached spent fuel pool building, no site power for many days, flooded reactor with seawater, etc. So let’s look at that. First off, no one died at the Fukushima complex as a result of radiation exposure during the meltdown phase. A recent attempt at estimating deaths/reduction in life expectancy (http://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2012/ee/c2ee22019a) gave a figure that ranges from hundreds to nearly 2000 that is based on theoretical reductions in life expectancy due to cancer and uses the LNT (linear damage theory – no threshold model, a very conservative way of calculating radiation health effects). Time will have to tell, but this will be the most studied cohort of accident victims ever produced, in my opinion.
As bad as the Japanese response has been in some ways (especially in terms of transparency of data) this population will be followed their entire lives, so one way or the other, we will get an answer to your statement, but just like in the early days post-Chernobyl, we are going to see that the real death toll will be much, much lower than feared. Also, because more coal fired plants are being ramped up now to offset the reduction in nuclear, more fatalities and illnesses from respiratory problems will kick in, possibly swamping the theoretical deaths that might be caused by the Fukushima releases (http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/es3051197).
I know we are also not allowed to talk about it in polite company, but there was an absolutely massive exposure event in Taiwan where around 10,000 people were exposed to low-level radiation for around 9 years and the results were not a devastating cancer epidemic (http://dose-response.metapress.com/link.asp?id=u570v06p72857877), but the total population actually showed a reduction in cancer incidence. This is why you don’t hear about this massive exposure incident in the mainstream press or from radiophobes.
I’m not saying go out and buy a Co-60 source to hug on at night, and there were complications noted for some subsets of that population (kids, pregnant women), but the cancer/death figures one expects using LNT are not seen, even several decades on. Let’s just say rad effects on people are a complicated topic and not amenable to sound bites.
Much of the problem as I see it today is that TEPCO has no credibility left. The Japanese government has no credibility left. Regarding the leaks into the groundwater, they should be providing constant information on test well readings all around the area. This is very straightforward stuff. Dig the well. Take a sample. Place it in a standard counter. Report the results of the test along with all metadata (detector type, calibration date, any calibration factors necessary to compensate for geometry, etc.) on a publicly available website and then allow audits. We would then know for sure if/when levels begin to exceed regulatory limits and if/when they begin to approach concerns to health (a much higher number).
As for the reactor facility and spent fuel pools, fuel removal is ahead of schedule. There was never a zirc fire in the spent fuel pools. The fuel is the potential source for a potential new disaster there. Contaminated water is a real problem, but we know how to deal with it – collection in resin beds, prevent use of contaminated wells, monitor the coast and fisheries. The dose levels we are talking about that have made it into the food supply are still in the single digit Becquerel (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Becquerel) range. Remember that a banana averages around 15 Bq. That is a nice value to compare to. Again, I am not saying don’t worry. I am saying be vigilant, but don’t panic yet. Save the energy, there may be a need to panic later and you don’t want to be wore out by then from needless worrying.
People evolved in a much higher radiation environment than we have today on earth. In reasonable doses, we can tolerate it – though I don’t disagree that some people are more sensitive to rad exposure than others, just like some people are more sensitive to peanuts than others.
Another quick hit for you – the Great East Japan Earthquake killed almost 16,000 people, with over 2,600 people missing/dead. Recall also that the Boxing Day Tsunami in 2004 killed at least 230,000 people. Where are the calls to permanently evacuate all coastal cities and towns along the Pacific Rim?
Thanks for letting me get this off my chest.
they dumped vast amounts of corexit onto the oil to hold it down and used the opportunity to get rid of huge volumes of an older version that had been banned for use in open waters due to its toxicity ........
( yeah i miss 'theoildrum' too)
And as you say, no one goes to jail. :judge:
They really believe that EVERYTHING can be fixed by throwing useless printed banknotes at things. :flail:
I'm in no way forgiving these guys - they did a whole bunch of stupid things in a row to get here.
1. run a reactor for decades past it's design life - profit.
2. run the fuel longer than the reccomended replace/reprocess time - profit
3. build it near the ocean in a place that regularly has tsunamis (plus the nimby effect) - profit, less piping and pumping
Reuters India @ReutersIndia
FLASH: Japan raises severity of latest Fukushima leak to level 3 ("serious" radiation "incident") on international scale 8:37 PM - 20 Aug 2013
Ancona saw the problem a week early.
... of course, the poisoning of the Gulf of Mexico by the Deepwater Horizon BP disaster.
All of my friends in the Florida Keys tell me that shrimping and fishing have been shitty ever since the spill and has not recovered. We used to be able to go out in a flats boat under a full moon when shrimp were running and net four five gallon buckets full in an hour or tow. Now we're lucky to get one bucket, and the shrimp tend to be smaller.
...
"The fishermen have never seen anything like this," Dr Jim Cowan told Al Jazeera. "And in my 20 years working on red snapper, looking at somewhere between 20 and 30,000 fish, I've never seen anything like this either."
Dr Cowan, with Louisiana State University's Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences started hearing about fish with sores and lesions from fishermen in November 2010.
Cowan's findings replicate those of others living along vast areas of the Gulf Coast that have been impacted by BP's oil and dispersants.
Gulf of Mexico fishermen, scientists and seafood processors have told Al Jazeera they are finding disturbing numbers of mutated shrimp, crab and fish that they believe are deformed by chemicals released during BP's 2010 oil disaster.
Along with collapsing fisheries, signs of malignant impact on the regional ecosystem are ominous: horribly mutated shrimp, fish with oozing sores, underdeveloped blue crabs lacking claws, eyeless crabs and shrimp - and interviewees' fingers point towards BP's oil pollution disaster as being the cause.
...
How does this compare to Fukushima?
A total of 193 nuclear tests were carried out in Polynesia from 1966 to 1996. On 24 August 1968 France detonated its first thermonuclear weapon—codenamed Canopus—over Fangataufa. A fission device ignited a lithium-6 deuteride secondary inside a jacket of highly enriched uranium to create a 2.6 megaton blast. On 17 July 1974, a test exposed Tahiti to 500 times the maximum allowed level of plutonium fallout.
Yet; keeping those used fuel rods safe is THE priority.
No. A hydrogen/air explosion (and the signature here is deflagration, not detonation) *above* something heavy just pushes it down. Further evidence - I don't see the radiation that would result anywhere. I have friends world wide that monitor that and have for years to decades, and I trust their methodology. They have this thing most of the newly frightened lack - a long term baseline of readings before any of this.
The stuff above the explosion and alongside it gets tossed in the air. The stuff below it gets tossed down into the ground. In this case, a tank full of water and fuel rods (which are very dense/heavy).
Example, just for fun, from a journo shoot here the other day where we put an explosive in the middle of something:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0qXQCVLGKQ
Note the bottom half didn't move AT ALL.
This was from my camera, unedited. Look for the real article and a lot more cool video from Vice magazine in about a month. We also took them for a camera ride 0-100-0 mph in a 1200hp/1100lb car...Though I warned the cameraman, there were a few shots of the sky (and feet) - he couldn't hold the camera through the Gees. 0-100-0 in half a mile is some ride.
Edit to add:
My friend on the west coast didn't detect *anything* with cryogenically cooled HPGE spectroscope, better than mine (but he didn't have my super sample collection tech). My friend in Germany didn't either. She did go to Chernobyl and stole a medium warm sample while the handlers weren't looking. It was hotter than the ditch dirt in Tokyo and Yokohama sent to her by my friends in Japan - but I wouldn't eat that ditch dirt myself, it was warm enough to be of some concern (hotter than here). My friend in Texas also saw nothing during a very long run (he was looking for something else, but this would have shown on his gear if there was anything above background - he was watching for effects of solar weather, low/high energy radiation). What it's like near the reactor is crazy-bad, but it seems localized.
It's probably not too cool to swim on that beach either.
they dumped vast amounts of corexit onto the oil to hold it down and used the opportunity to get rid of huge volumes of an older version that had been banned for use in open waters due to its toxicity ........
( yeah i miss 'theoildrum' too)
And as you say, no one goes to jail. :judge:
They really believe that EVERYTHING can be fixed by throwing useless printed banknotes at things. :flail:
The stuff above the explosion and alongside it gets tossed in the air.
here's some more disingenuous bullshit. Lets hope that radioactive water never reaches the ocean!
Emergency Level At Fukushima Raised From 1 To 3! Site Being Described As A House Of Horrors! - YouTube
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