Gold Market 260604

[pmbug]

Jun 4 Gold Market Morning Snapshot​

SFE Futures $4,492.95
SGE Spot $4,476.22 (~$10 LBMA Spot)
LBMA Spot $4,492.03
COMEX Jun26 Futures $4,498.40 ($4.68 LBMA Spot @ last quote)
IBJA PM Spot $4,313.37 (~$179 LBMA Spot)
MCX Futures $4,302.29

Quotestaxes/duties

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday gold opened ~$4,460, closed ~$4,440 and has climbed to ~$4,500 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 08:16 : $4,492.03

Jun26 = -$4.68 vs +$1.31 Previously (spot @ 08:06 : $4,503.08)
Jul26 = +$10.92 vs +$11.11 (spot @ 08:14 : $4,492.48)
Aug26 = +$30.97 vs +$30.25

EFP Commentary​

Jun26 EFP spread turns negative (arbitrage opportunity to send gold to London/LBMA?). Jul & Aug spreads hold more or less steady.

India ​

MCX Jun26 [GOLD 1kg] : $5,061.52 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $4,302.29)
IBJA PM spot : $5,074.55 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $4,313.37)

China ​

SGE $4,476.22(no VAT)
SFE $4,492.95

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$10 (from ~$15)
SFE premium to SGE = $16.73 (from $16.91)


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Jun 4 Gold Vaults (ozt)​

GLD28K
COMEX16K

COMEX withdrawals are ~0.1% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA run rate 1,771d (from 1,815d)

COMEX 6-2​

16K ozt (0.5t) in StoneX [R]

643 ozt (0.02t) from Brinks

3K ozt (0.1t) moved from [R] to [E] in Delaware (0.5K), MT&B (2.9K)

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 28.3M ozt (15.3M [R], 13M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 16K/day

Total vault stock run rate = 28.3M / 16K = ~1,771 (working) days(~89 months)

COMEX Jun26​

Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 27,659
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 2,765,900
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 2,829.29

Jun withdrawals are now ~0.1% of Jun26 delivery requests.

I made an error yesterday with the decimal position. Yesterday the withdrawals were ~0.09%, not ~9%.

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday's 16K ozt net deposit replaces a slightly larger 17K net deposit in the 5 DMA window so the withdraw rate grew very slightly.

GLD Assets​

World Gold Trust Services:400K shares
JPM:28K ozt (0.9t)
HSBC:ozt
ozt/shares ratio 0.091938 (from 0.091912)

I just started watching this closely a little over a week ago. So far, all vault movement occurs in JPM's London vault. Gold held in JPM's NYC vault and HSBC's London vault hold steady.

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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/gold-market-260603.8988/