Gold Market 260611

[pmbug]

Jun 11 Gold Market Morning Snapshot​

SGE Spot $4,109.59 (~$2 LBMA Spot)
SFE Futures $4,105.83
LBMA Spot $4,090.27
COMEX Jun26 Futures $4,078.20 ($4.40 LBMA Spot @ last quote)
MCX Futures $4,069.42
IBJA Spot $3,997.23 (~$93 LBMA Spot)

Quotestaxes/duties

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday gold opened ~$4,150 and closed ~$4,070, and has fallen to ~$4,090 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:56 : $4,090.27

Jun26 = -$4.40 vs -$1.29 Previously (spot @ 05:34 : $4,082.60)
Jul26 = +$5.10 vs +$9.05 (spot @ 06:52 : $4,091.80)
Aug26 = +$20.03 vs +$19.28

EFP Commentary​

Jun26 EFP spread moves strongly negative. This probably is sufficient arbitrage profit to encourage sending gold to London/LBMA.

India ​

MCX Aug26 [GOLD 1kg] : $4,787.56 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $4,069.42)
IBJA PM spot : $4,702.62 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $3,997.23)

China ​

SGE $4,109.59(no VAT)
SFE $4,105.83

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$2 (from ~$11)
SFE "premium" to SGE = -$3.76 (from $17.60)

What is happening in China? The SGE-LBMA spot premium is shrinking and the SFE-SGE (futures-spot) premium has turned to a discount. This has occured with both gold and silver.


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Jun 11 Gold Vaults (ozt)​

GLD110K
COMEX223K

COMEX withdrawals are currently ~14.1% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA run rate 568d (from 16,450d)

COMEX 6-9​

24K ozt (0.7t) in Brinks (3K), Loomis (5K), StoneX (16K [R])

247K ozt (7.7t) from Asahi (49K), Brinks (115K), HSBC (83K)

ozt moved between [R] and [E]

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 28.1M ozt (15.2M [R], 12.9M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 49K/day(from 2K/day)

Total vault stock run rate = 28.1M / 49K = ~568 (working) days (~29 months) (from 16,450d)

COMEX Jun26​

Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 29,663
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 2,966,300
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 418,020.84

Jun withdrawals are now ~14.1% of Jun26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday's 223K net withdrawal replaces a 15K ozt deposit in the 5 DMA window so the withdraw rate grew significantly.

GLD Assets​

World Gold Trust Services:1M shares
JPM:110K ozt (3.4t)
HSBC:ozt
ozt/shares ratio 0.092062 (from 0.092112)

Another large outflow goes back to the LBMA's unallocated pool.

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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/gold-market-260610.9014/