Gold Market 260625

[pmbug]

Jun 25 Gold Market Morning Snapshot​

SGE Spot $3,993.81 ($15.16 LBMA Spot @ 03:30)
SFE Futures $3,988.55
MCX Futures $4,049.36
IBJA Spot $4,007.93 (~$24 LBMA Spot @ 07:00)
COMEX Jun26 Futures $3,986.70 ($1.26 LBMA Spot @ last quote)
LBMA Spot $3,983.53

Quotestaxes/duties

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday gold opened just under $4,050, closed $3,998.40, and has chopped up and down all night and is ~$3,983 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 07:02 : $3,983.53

Jun26 = +$1.26 vs -$2.76 Previously (spot @ 06:10 : $3,985.42)
Jul26 = -$3.03 vs +$2.34 (spot @ 06:32 : $3,987.13)
Aug26 = +$16.67 vs +$19.39

EFP Commentary​

Jun26 EFP spread holds flips positive as Jul spread flips to negative. Bizarro world!

India ​

MCX Aug26 [GOLD 1kg] : $4,656.76 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $4,049.36)
IBJA PM spot : $4,609.11 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $4,007.93)

China ​

SGE $3,993.81(no VAT)
SFE $3,988.55

SGE premium to LBMA spot = $15.16
SFE "premium" to SGE = -$5.26


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Jun 25 Gold Vaults (ozt)​

GLD (shares dropping, vault stock isn't)
COMEX73K

COMEX withdrawals are currently ~19.5% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA run rate 1,075d (from 2,085d)

COMEX 6-23​

ozt

73K ozt (2.3t) from Asahi

20K ozt (0.6t) moved from [R] to [E] in Brinks (6K), JPM (14K)

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 27.8M ozt (15M [R], 12.8M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 26K/day (from 13K/day)

Total vault stock run rate = 27.8M / 26K = ~1,075 (working) days (~54 months) (from 2,085d)

COMEX Jun26​

Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 38,614
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 3,861,400
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 753,761.78

Jun withdrawals are now ~19.5% of Jun26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday's 73K ozt net withdrawal replaces a 10K ozt net withdrawal in the 5 DMA window so the withdraw rate doubled.

GLD Assets​

World Gold Trust Services:1.5M shares
JPM:ozt
HSBC:ozt
ozt/shares ratio 0.092605 (from 0.092215)

Two days in a row for shares to drop (3.1M total shares expunged) without any corresponding vault stock drain. Curious.

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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/gold-market-260624.9052/

 

[pmbug]

OP updated with China market data.