Peru & China Point to Recession?

DoChenRollingBearing

Yellow Jacket
Supporter
Messages
1,275
Reaction score
0
Points
0
Location
SE USA
...

Well, maybe so!

Our company's sales are down, some 15% or more (year to date vs last year to date), and we cannot blame it (all) on our suppliers not sending us critical items for sale.

The price of copper and gold are down, so Peru gets less revenue. Gold production in Peru is down, so that much less income (I do not have figures for copper).

China is importing less copper and apparently less iron (iron ore, I saw somewhere just today) has hit a mere $80 / ton in Singapore (very low). China has plenty of copper, and has a lot of other things going on, most bad.

It' my case that maybe they are pointing to recession, it's not like Europe (ugh) or Japan (double ugh) is propping up the world economy. Nor, IMO, the USA.

"China & Peru Now Point to Recession?"

http://goo.gl/NRc3dg
 

pmbug

Your Host
Administrator
Messages
7,500
Reaction score
38
Points
203
Location
Texas
Hey DCRB, any idea how much Peru's economy is tied to it's neighbors Argentina and Venezuela? I wonder if the problems in those countries might be having some spillover to their neighbors.
 

dontdeBasemebro

Moderator
Messages
494
Reaction score
0
Points
0
China's mandated economy and the massive, massive bubble it has formed are well known, at least in hour circles. It probably should have burst some time ago, but the rest of the world is such a basket case that China is still one of the stronger ones, sort of like us.

The timing, of course, will be everything.
 

mmerlinn

Ground Beetle
Messages
633
Reaction score
0
Points
136
Location
Here, There, and Everywhere
Products coming out of China seem to be slowing way down.

I have a current order, placed in late April, that will finally arrive here tomorrow but which was due here in mid-July. In the past I figured on 3-months from order in to arrival of product and always had the product in less than 3 months. In the future it looks like I am going to have to figure 5 or 6 months.

And apparently I am not alone. My major local competitor is quoting 6-month lead times now, too.
 
Last edited:

rblong2us

Yellow Jacket
Messages
2,116
Reaction score
20
Points
153
Location
off world
slower delivery times suggests they are too busy ..........
So what is the cause of this slowdown ?

Have they started using foreign labour ? (-:
 

mmerlinn

Ground Beetle
Messages
633
Reaction score
0
Points
136
Location
Here, There, and Everywhere
slower delivery times suggests they are too busy ..........
So what is the cause of this slowdown ?

Have they started using foreign labour ? (-:
Best that I can tell part of the slowdown was getting enough additional freight to fill the container. And then getting enough containers to fill the ship. That was about 4 weeks of the slowdown.

Breaking the freight in LA and running all the small batches through customs took about 3 weeks.

Add in shipping across the pond, then shipping here in the States, and I finally get the product 2-1/2 months after it left the manufacturer.

Usual shipping time for the last 10 years has consistently been 4 weeks from time product left the manufacturer until I had product in hand.

Fortunately for me, I had part of the order Air Freighted at a cost of $250, and had it in hand in late July. I should have Air Freighted twice as much, but did not expect the transit time to be so long.

As far as the manufacturer is concerned, the parts were made in near record time, being done over a week sooner than expected, so I suspect he did not have much if any backlog like he has had in the past.
 

rblong2us

Yellow Jacket
Messages
2,116
Reaction score
20
Points
153
Location
off world
Thank you mmerlinn.

BDI has often been quoted as a indicator of trade activity but so many attempts made to undermine the logic ( eg too many new boats coming on line ) that I started treating it like the VIX 'fear index', probably managed to keep us all guessing.
 
Top