Physical Silver vs paper silver

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Goldbrix

Goldbrix

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"Is SLV, that king of all paper silver funds, finally falling out of favor? It certainly seems so. SLV had its 3rd biggest up day on October 4, and despite that, the amount of the silver in the fund fell sharply that same day. Andy Schectman at Miles Franklin is reporting that this is the tightest physical market he has seen since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis, and physical premiums remain at record highs, confirming he's not just making this up. "...
Note: Commercial in 1st two minutes:
 
The premiums are simply out of sight. What really gets to me is that should one want to sell to aa dealer they offer spot or % of spot. I know supply and demand but with premiums so high PMs are going to have to move pretty darned high just for a holder to break even and I certainly do not know what the answer is.
 
What I find amazing is the US Silver Eagle prices. The cheapest available is about $33.00 with the silver spot price at roughly $19.00

On one hand, I am very happy to have a pile of these bought years ago under $10.00
On the other hand, I refuse to buy more at $33.00 for fear that I will never recoup the premium come time to sell.
 
Wellsburg said:
What I find amazing is the US Silver Eagle prices. The cheapest available is about $33.00 with the silver spot price at roughly $19.00

On one hand, I am very happy to have a pile of these bought years ago under $10.00
On the other hand, I refuse to buy more at $33.00 for fear that I will never recoup the premium come time to sell.
Click to expand...
Every year at Christmastime I have historically bought each of my adult children a roll of those ngc/pcgs ASEs. The premium was stiff at the time but I always thought if they went to sell them someday there wouldn't be the usual "they are not in BU condition" that a lot of LCS like to throw around. This year though I may break the tradition because to me they look like they will be a long term looser because of the premiums/buyback prices. Sort of a shame to me but why throw money away? MAybe an I bond would be a better present this year.
 
Wellsburg said:
What I find amazing is the US Silver Eagle prices. The cheapest available is about $33.00 with the silver spot price at roughly $19.00

On one hand, I am very happy to have a pile of these bought years ago under $10.00
On the other hand, I refuse to buy more at $33.00 for fear that I will never recoup the premium come time to sell.
Click to expand...
You might want to trade some for gold and platinum.
 
Edsl48 said:
Every year at Christmastime I have historically bought each of my adult children a roll of those ngc/pcgs ASEs. The premium was stiff at the time but I always thought if they went to sell them someday there wouldn't be the usual "they are not in BU condition" that a lot of LCS like to throw around. This year though I may break the tradition because to me they look like they will be a long term looser because of the premiums/buyback prices. Sort of a shame to me but why throw money away? MAybe an I bond would be a better present this year.
Click to expand...
Try gold sovereigns or 20 francs this year.
 
It's the law that the mint must profuce SAEs to meet demand. The catch is they must source USA silver. The law needs rewriting and should be a campaign topic.
 
nickndfl said:
It's the law that the mint must profuce SAEs to meet demand. The catch is they must source USA silver. The law needs rewriting and should be a campaign topic.
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Nobody cares about silver more than they care about the Kardashians...

Screen Shot 2022-10-22 at 10.06.15 AM.png
 
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UK premiums went way up on gold and silver. No official increases were announced.

Perth announced premium increases last year and I basically stopped buying theirs. Only pm still cheap is UK platinum.
 
Old timers from GIM know that I studied the silver market probably more than even some of the so called "experts" on the subject. I used to be convinced of the drivel that some day phyz would overtake paper and there would be true price discovery - silver would moonshot, etc...

I dont believe that anymore.

Yes - it is true that silver is the true lynchpin in the global financial grenade that could, in theory set off a nuclear bomb in the global currency markets. This is because of its relative lack of supply, strong correlation to gold and golds inherent position in being the ultimate store of value juxtaposed to various national currencies.

The problem is that "they" know this as well - and have set up system after system to ensure that there is never any true price discovery in silver. Hell - they have created so many diversionary "asset classes" for silver investors so as to keep them away from the physical silver it makes your head swim trying to keep up with all of them.

Sure - there may come a day when silver does indeed explode in price - which of course will drag gold along with it for the ride - and that explosion would result in the fiery destruction of national currency after national currency.

What is much more likely though is that when that event becomes inevitably close at hand - that is when they will implement their new system of a supranational global digital currency - which all will be required to transact in - and silver will be deemed to be a strategic asset too dangerous for mere mortals to possess - as its physical properties are too important for the greater good (electrical conductivity for the green agenda and its biocidal properties to protect us from...well anything these evil monsters concoct in their laboratories)...
 
physical has parted ways with (their) rigged price

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 
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Strawboss said:
Old timers from GIM know that I studied the silver market probably more than even some of the so called "experts" on the subject. I used to be convinced of the drivel that some day phyz would overtake paper and there would be true price discovery - silver would moonshot, etc...

I dont believe that anymore.

Yes - it is true that silver is the true lynchpin in the global financial grenade that could, in theory set off a nuclear bomb in the global currency markets. This is because of its relative lack of supply, strong correlation to gold and golds inherent position in being the ultimate store of value juxtaposed to various national currencies.

The problem is that "they" know this as well - and have set up system after system to ensure that there is never any true price discovery in silver. Hell - they have created so many diversionary "asset classes" for silver investors so as to keep them away from the physical silver it makes your head swim trying to keep up with all of them.

Sure - there may come a day when silver does indeed explode in price - which of course will drag gold along with it for the ride - and that explosion would result in the fiery destruction of national currency after national currency.

What is much more likely though is that when that event becomes inevitably close at hand - that is when they will implement their new system of a supranational global digital currency - which all will be required to transact in - and silver will be deemed to be a strategic asset too dangerous for mere mortals to possess - as its physical properties are too important for the greater good (electrical conductivity for the green agenda and its biocidal properties to protect us from...well anything these evil monsters concoct in their laboratories)...
Click to expand...

with many years of experience in hand ...i have learned its hard to predict the governmental interventions that may surface to mitigate the issues in critical markets ....but i do think we are rapidly reaching a inflection point and will soon get answers to our varying speculations
 
For those who prefer video information. ( talks his sponsors at the 2 min. mark for about a minute. Begins Market new at approx 15min. mark. The middle is PM / Silver news.)

The Shift From Paper to Hard Assets Is Just Beginning​

 
cash settlements replacing delivery

schiffgold.com

COMEX: Silver Registered Ratio Falls to 11.1% – Lowest in 22 Years | SchiffGold

schiffgold.com schiffgold.com

COMEX: Silver Registered Ratio Falls to 11.1% – Lowest in 22 Years​


December 17, 2022 by SchiffGold 0 0

The drainage since the start of the year has been nothing short of spectacular. 48.5M ounces have left Registered since Jan 1. That represents more than 50% of the balance of 82M ounces last Dec 31.

There is another major indication that shows inventory might be much smaller than is reported. As of yesterday, only 77.6% of contracts standing for delivery have actually had their metal delivered. Shorts are on the hook for deciding when to deliver the metal, so why are they dragging their feet? Through the 16th, this is the least amount of metal delivered as a percent of Open Interest on First Notice back to at least Jan 2020.



Figure: 6 Delivery Volume After First Notice

Another odd data point is the number of net new contracts after first position. There have been some months, like last July, where net new contracts are negative throughout the month. However, while this month is still positive, it went up and then reversed back down. This means that there are cash settlements happening way late in the contract.

more at link....
 
cheka said:
cash settlements replacing delivery

schiffgold.com

COMEX: Silver Registered Ratio Falls to 11.1% – Lowest in 22 Years | SchiffGold

schiffgold.com schiffgold.com

COMEX: Silver Registered Ratio Falls to 11.1% – Lowest in 22 Years​


December 17, 2022 by SchiffGold 0 0

The drainage since the start of the year has been nothing short of spectacular. 48.5M ounces have left Registered since Jan 1. That represents more than 50% of the balance of 82M ounces last Dec 31.

There is another major indication that shows inventory might be much smaller than is reported. As of yesterday, only 77.6% of contracts standing for delivery have actually had their metal delivered. Shorts are on the hook for deciding when to deliver the metal, so why are they dragging their feet? Through the 16th, this is the least amount of metal delivered as a percent of Open Interest on First Notice back to at least Jan 2020.



Figure: 6 Delivery Volume After First Notice

Another odd data point is the number of net new contracts after first position. There have been some months, like last July, where net new contracts are negative throughout the month. However, while this month is still positive, it went up and then reversed back down. This means that there are cash settlements happening way late in the contract.

more at link....
Click to expand...

Beat me to it.... "Coverage in silver is far worse than in gold with nearly 18.3 paper contracts for each ounce of Registered silver. This is down slightly from the recent high when coverage was as thin as 20.4 paper contracts for each physical ounce in mid-November. This means a bit more than 5% of silver open interest would need to stand for delivery to wipe out Comex vaults entirely of Registered."

Also, Platinum supplies are even LOWER than silver... Pay close attention there. Down to 74,000 ounces with almost 200,000 being removed this year.
 
@arminius - what am I looking at with those images? Is that from a retail shop, wholesaler or ???
 
Maybe I'm just dense, but why would I sell physical gold for $10 over spot when I would have to pay $105 over spot to buy it back the next day? They are coming right out and telling you to your face that they aren't giving you fair market value for something that you are holding.
 
CiscoKid said:
Maybe I'm just dense, but why would I sell physical gold for $10 over spot when I would have to pay $105 over spot to buy it back the next day? They are coming right out and telling you to your face that they aren't giving you fair market value for something that you are holding.
Click to expand...
They call that 'the VIG' and we should be the ones getting it....
 
cheka said:
physical has parted ways with (their) rigged price

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
Click to expand...


That is what I find most fascinating about the whole precious metals thing. When I started stacking, I could go down to my local coin store and buy physical for spot +2% all day long. And they would buy it back for spot -2%. The cost of keeping their lights on and their doors open. Sure, there were always the double struck coins in fancy boxes that would sell for premiums and I always avoided those believing that an ounce of gold was just that - an ounce of gold.

The mere fact that there is this huge disconnect between the spot price and the price for physical should surely be opening the eyes of those who bought paper metal. If I were one of those people, I'm not sure I would sleep well at night.
 
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
You gotta stop channeling me or I'm gonna go for copyright infringement.

That disconnect cannot last long, and that does not bother me in the slightest. I do not sell PM's. As long as the gummint itself admits to inflation (eg: dollar buying power erosion), I only buy at the unnaturally low prices.

Buy and hold.
 
...
The physical shortage in silver at the both the wholesale and retail level continued this past week -- although it has become obvious that retail sales have slowed down quite a bit over the holidays. A number of retailers have a lot of silver bars and rounds/coins still on back-order -- and have no inventories at all in a lot of items they normally keep in stock. However, there's enough retail bullion around -- and demand has softened enough, that premiums on them have fallen quite a bit.

But the real shortage that matters is at the wholesale level in silver at the COMEX -- and in SLV. That became obvious during the December delivery month in regards to Canada's BMO [Bank of Montreal} Capital, as it took them quite some time to scrounge up the silver necessary to deliver into their short position. There also appears to be some physical tightness in gold at the wholesale level as well.

But, as you're more than aware, this extraordinary demand has not yet been allowed to manifest itself in their respective prices. The Big 4/8 commercial shorts still have them in their iron grip.

Of course not to be forgotten about with regards to SLV, is this not so little matter of the 50.36 million shares currently sold short in this ETF. That's up 5 million shares/11% as of the last published short report on December 27. The reason that number remains stubbornly high is certainly because the physical metal doesn't exist to deposit without driving the silver price to the moon. So instead of depositing the physical metal, the mostly one or two major authorized participants involved [according to Ted] are shorting the shares is lieu of that.

The next short report is due out on Wednesday, January 11...for positions held at the close of business on Friday, December 30.
...
Click to expand...

silverseek.com

Shockingly Low COMEX Silver Volume on Friday

The resolution of the Big 4/8 short positions will be the sole determinant of precious metal prices going forward. As I pointed out, they have been very reluctant to add to their short positions..
silverseek.com silverseek.com
 
Since the thread's title is Physical Silver vs paper silver :)


Physical silver

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Paper silver


silver_1_year_o_x_usd.png
 
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