Physical Silver vs paper silver

Welcome to the Precious Metals Bug Forums

Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more. You can visit the forum page to see the list of forum nodes (categories/rooms) for topics.

Why not register an account and join the discussions? When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no Google ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!

“When true price discovery occurs that’ll be a great day for silver investors.”

In this week’s episode of Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined - a popular request - by Ron Branstetter of Ron’s Basement to discuss the accelerating pace of change that silver stackers should experience in the months to come. The precious metals experts take listeners through the implications of recent manoeuvres of the Global South, questioning whether international conflict can be avoided through leveraging a global gold and silver reevaluation.

Timestamps: 00:00 Start
  1. 03:00 Ron’s thoughts on the price of silver right now
  2. 06:30 Momentum traders willing to pay over the odds
  3. 12:45 China going directly to miners to buy gold and silver - bypassing the COMEX & LBMA
  4. 17:40 Under-investment in the silver mining industry
  5. 19:30 Dedollarisation process coming to a head and triggering the gold reevaluation
  6. 29:45 EU central bank gold ownership relative to GDP; are they preparing for something?
  7. 38:00 The opportunity for US citizens to reclaim the right to sound money
  8. 41:30 Could BRICS nations drag the US back into the gold standard?


 
The most undervalued asset on the planet? Been hearing this for many many years yet when the price spikes it comes right back down. How many were buying at 40 and 50 an ounce? The price is whatever the market says it is.
In general, all of the metals gurus who are really self proclaimed experts, have never said anything other than what's being said in the video above. I never ponce heard any of them say that the market is going lower and we will be in a bear market for years. So in general, they all lose credibility and are really nothing more than cheerleaders for the NY jets or something.
China and Russia have 80 tons of gold? I'd like to see some proof of that. That would be 10 times the stated amount for Russia and 30 times the stated amount for China. https://www.madisontrust.com/inform...ons/which-world-countries-have-the-most-gold/
I don't trust any data coming out of China so if anything I would say they overstated their numbers. For a moment though lets say the numbers they are throwing around are real. Instead of the 4 or 5000 tons they announce they really have 80,000 tons. Hows does that translate into a higher market when you dump 75,000 tons of the metal onto the market? If anything, hiding those "real" numbers already artificially inflates the price. If they came out tomorrow with those numbers you would see gold plummet to 200 an ounce. So yea, go ahead and make the announcement that you are going to back your brics currency with 80 tons of gold. Once the price of gold plummets and the rest of the world gets on board then the real challenge starts. Everyone ramps up production to get their piece of the gold. Does the gold backed currency then start getting cashed in for the real metal? I suspect it won't because no one would ever give up control of that much gold. A backing of a currency by anything only works if you can actually turn in the currency for the real metal. If you can't then the currency is really backed by nothing, same as the dollar.
Let's look at what all that gold works out to per person. In the US the 8k tons works out to less than an ounce per person just in the US. IIRC it's like 3/4 of an ounce per person. If china and Russia had 80,000 tons that would be enough for 1 ounce of gold for about 3-4 billion people. Thats just rough calculations. But the world has 7-8 billion people on it. So that's roughly a 1/2 ounce per person. However the reality is that a very small portion of people on the planet have any wealth compared to the top 1-3%. So, 80-90% of that gold would end up in the hands of about the top 3% so what's left for the 97%? If you are on a gold standard then no reason to have a currency, just trade in gold. If a currency is backed by gold then it's the same as gold right? So now your saying there is a fixed amount of gold in the world. No monetary expansion other than what will be mined in the future which on a worldwide basis is very little. No more fractional reserve banking. So, no lending unless a bank has real reserves. Eventually that fails. If someone borrows 10 ounces of gold from the bank and over 30 years the bank demands 30 ounces of gold in repayment, where does that "Interest" on the gold come from?
As for the dollar replacement. Like it or not, there is no replacement currently. Maybe in 8-10 years but for now the dollar is the only game in town unless everyone wants to trade in local currency. Whats the real purpose of currency though? Just an easy way to facilitate trade. I can trade my chicken for 10 tomatoes and then trade 2 of my tomatoes for a little wheat or I can sell my chicken for some currency and go buy whatever I want. It really was used to replace bartering. Bartering is the ultimate form of of economic activity. You get right down to basics with no currency needed. You either produce something of value or you don't live very long. There is no welfare, there is no society as we know it. No big government with endless welfare positions within it. No spy agencies. No militaries. No taxation and no society as we have come to know it. It's sorta hard for any government to come in and say I need 20% of your chickens and tomatoes so we can give it to our snow plow drivers this year and pay for the fuel ect. In order to have a society as we know it, you need a fiat currency that people believe in.

Chinas economy is in the shitter. Stock market is down, real estate is valued at like 60 trillion which is probably about 40 or 50 trillion too high and they are going to replace the dollar?
 
The most undervalued asset on the planet? Been hearing this for many many years yet when the price spikes it comes right back down. How many were buying at 40 and 50 an ounce? The price is whatever the market says it is.
In general, all of the metals gurus who are really self proclaimed experts, have never said anything other than what's being said in the video above. I never ponce heard any of them say that the market is going lower and we will be in a bear market for years. So in general, they all lose credibility and are really nothing more than cheerleaders for the NY jets or something.
China and Russia have 80 tons of gold? I'd like to see some proof of that. That would be 10 times the stated amount for Russia and 30 times the stated amount for China. https://www.madisontrust.com/inform...ons/which-world-countries-have-the-most-gold/
I don't trust any data coming out of China so if anything I would say they overstated their numbers. For a moment though lets say the numbers they are throwing around are real. Instead of the 4 or 5000 tons they announce they really have 80,000 tons. Hows does that translate into a higher market when you dump 75,000 tons of the metal onto the market? If anything, hiding those "real" numbers already artificially inflates the price. If they came out tomorrow with those numbers you would see gold plummet to 200 an ounce. So yea, go ahead and make the announcement that you are going to back your brics currency with 80 tons of gold. Once the price of gold plummets and the rest of the world gets on board then the real challenge starts. Everyone ramps up production to get their piece of the gold. Does the gold backed currency then start getting cashed in for the real metal? I suspect it won't because no one would ever give up control of that much gold. A backing of a currency by anything only works if you can actually turn in the currency for the real metal. If you can't then the currency is really backed by nothing, same as the dollar.
Let's look at what all that gold works out to per person. In the US the 8k tons works out to less than an ounce per person just in the US. IIRC it's like 3/4 of an ounce per person. If china and Russia had 80,000 tons that would be enough for 1 ounce of gold for about 3-4 billion people. Thats just rough calculations. But the world has 7-8 billion people on it. So that's roughly a 1/2 ounce per person. However the reality is that a very small portion of people on the planet have any wealth compared to the top 1-3%. So, 80-90% of that gold would end up in the hands of about the top 3% so what's left for the 97%? If you are on a gold standard then no reason to have a currency, just trade in gold. If a currency is backed by gold then it's the same as gold right? So now your saying there is a fixed amount of gold in the world. No monetary expansion other than what will be mined in the future which on a worldwide basis is very little. No more fractional reserve banking. So, no lending unless a bank has real reserves. Eventually that fails. If someone borrows 10 ounces of gold from the bank and over 30 years the bank demands 30 ounces of gold in repayment, where does that "Interest" on the gold come from?
As for the dollar replacement. Like it or not, there is no replacement currently. Maybe in 8-10 years but for now the dollar is the only game in town unless everyone wants to trade in local currency. Whats the real purpose of currency though? Just an easy way to facilitate trade. I can trade my chicken for 10 tomatoes and then trade 2 of my tomatoes for a little wheat or I can sell my chicken for some currency and go buy whatever I want. It really was used to replace bartering. Bartering is the ultimate form of of economic activity. You get right down to basics with no currency needed. You either produce something of value or you don't live very long. There is no welfare, there is no society as we know it. No big government with endless welfare positions within it. No spy agencies. No militaries. No taxation and no society as we have come to know it. It's sorta hard for any government to come in and say I need 20% of your chickens and tomatoes so we can give it to our snow plow drivers this year and pay for the fuel ect. In order to have a society as we know it, you need a fiat currency that people believe in.

Chinas economy is in the shitter. Stock market is down, real estate is valued at like 60 trillion which is probably about 40 or 50 trillion too high and they are going to replace the dollar?
 
Hello Clark... ehm ehm... Cigalover...
:D

In general, all of the metals gurus who are really self proclaimed experts, have never said anything other than what's being said in the video above. I never ponce heard any of them say that the market is going lower and we will be in a bear market for years. So in general, they all lose credibility and are really nothing more than cheerleaders for the NY jets or something.
You are right. Well actually A. Maguire use a cryptic formulation in order to signal market going lower: when you hear from him ... expect volatility ... you know it's time to take your bicycle and run to buy some put!

That said, beside price predictions there are other reason for listening to them. For ex. learning about some facts or about how the precious market works.
For ex. facts as JP Morgan opening an unlimited line of credit to I don't remember whom so that whom can buy as much physical silver they want to.
Or that wholesalers currently can't but place very limited orders at the bullion banks otherwise they get red flagged and bullion banks won't make no business anymore with them.
Do you think A. Maguire is making things up? For what, for looking good?
He is a PM broker, he has his own business - a pretty successful one btw. - he doesn't need YouTube podcasts in order to acquire new clients, and he is already married.
He showed (or is it... he shew?) iron balls going public and delivering to the CFTC records of ca 80 trades where he could mostly predict exactly comex silver short term price movements.
It's not that he sent to Washington 80 lucky numbers while praying the Holy Rosary, nor he sent some screenshots with a couple of yellow arrows painted on them. AFAIK they were video recordings - hours of video recordings - in which pointing to live price charts on the screen he explained what was going to happen in the next minutes/hours.

Or - as another example of why I listen to these podcasts - take him mentioning the wholesalers. He is the only analyst that I know including the wholesalers in his explanations of how the precious metals markets work. Until him I didn't even know wholesalers exist.
You say Who cares, his price predictions are crap.
Me :D
 
Talking about paper silver...

In silver, the last COT* numbers indicated that hedge funds are net short, which while not unheard of is unusual and very bullish.
https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc80dcbf5-09a9-4071-acde-6e1ce39072b5_902x450.png



* The Commitment of Traders (COT) report is a weekly publication that shows the aggregate holdings of different participants in the U.S. futures market.
 
Re: McGuire - He seems to have some insight on how the markets trade. His crystal ball about central banks/nations motives/intentions/actions is wildly speculative though. $.02
 
My grandfather pulled mercury dimes and Franklin halves out of circulation in the mid-1960s and rolled them He also had a few walkers and Peace dollars, but nothing like the mercs and Franklins. He must have saved about 100 rolls combined. He had about another 100 rolls of unchecked wheat pennies.

He was born in 1912 which made him a product of the Great Depression which he really never got over in his 93 years. He never threw anything away and was always aware of the value of money because he never had any. His big score was going to be when silver went to the moon which he saw in 1980.

I am not holding my breath on silver and it won't rocket until it is needed in some new industrial or financial capacity unless somebody falls asleep and the COMEX is suddenly out of it.
 
European refineries have all future production sold out at the moment,
they are looking for silver of any size,
overwhelming demand from India,
London refuses to deliver,
SVL being tapped on for supply

Start at 33:33

 
The silver talk is right at the end. I noted that the refiners had 2,000 Tons of silver they could sell now but could not find... which means miners to supply them with ore I presume. That's over 50M oz of silver.
 
The silver talk is right at the end. I noted that the refiners had 2,000 Tons of silver they could sell now but could not find... which means miners to supply them with ore I presume. That's over 50M oz of silver.
AFAIK refiners don't get ore directly from miners. I wish they would. That would cut off the middleman, the bullion banks. Bullion banks buy ore (under spot) from miners and either sell the ore to refineries or pay the refineries to refine the ore and than receive the ingots.

Maguire doesn't say refiners have 2,000 Tons of silver, he says India could absorb 2,000 Tons of silver.
When he says a refiner told him he could fill an order for 2,000 Tons, I think he meant wholesaler, not refiner, because a) he just said refiners are all sold out, so no refiner can fill new orders, and b) right after that he talks about London dealers refusing to deliver wholesale bars - those interested in wholesale bars are wholesalers, not refiners.
 
I did a search to see what is out there on LBMA not delivering and I cant find anything. Since inventories continue to decline (Down to 26k tonnes or so) it only makes sense that they are indeed delivering. Does LBMA have the same rules as comex where they can settle in cash instead of delivery?
Prices will eventually move higher but I think if things get to crazy the government would step in and stop investment demand in order for industry to have enough supply.
 
Same as getting laid vs. watching porn.
 
Silver to 50,000 LOL Trust me when I say, even if that did happen you would not want to live in a world where silver is 50k an OZ.

 
Back
Top Bottom