Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE and SFE) gold and silver

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swissaustrian

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First of all, the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) is NOT equal to the Pan Asian Gold Exchange (PAGE) ( http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f2/page-pan-asian-gold-exchange-coming-june-2012-a-12/ ) which is located in Kunming City.

Here is a summary on the operations of the SGE: http://www.sge.sh/publish/sgeen/sge_brief/sge_overview/7216.htm

Recent news, they're trying to compete with the LBMA:
http://www.sharenet.co.za/news/Shan...rbank_market/ea87dd93f16c92bb3aed440722d35d98
 
Asia seems to be getting more and more aggressively in to precious metals. When you turn on 1.3 billion peasants to the idea that they can protect the value of their money by purchasing gold and silver.......watch out!
 
I am curious what people think about this whole paper vs physical theory. Seems like the freegold people Another et al seem to talk a lot about this. Perhaps I don't understand it well enough. I spoke with a pretty knowledgable person who works with the LBMA everyday who has all his savings in gold and he seemed to dismiss these conspiracy theories. Saying there is a spot mkt and futures mkt, that is how commodities trade. so you can buy or sell spot and take ownership immediatley. Just curious what you guys think.

Also where do these people plan to sell their gold that they say will be priced differently than what is on the compt screen. To whom will they be selling? And why would the person take a different price than is on kitco etc?
 
See NNL's "tail wagging the dog" explanation in the PAGE thread (1st post, 2nd & 3rd quoted paragraphs).
 
Does he have his gold in an unallocated LBMA account?
Because then it's just a bunch of

 
SA,
Can you post a better video? The audio on that one is absolutely abyssmal. I listened to about the half-way point, then it sort of gets really quiet, and you can't really hear. Although I followed this on GATA, I can't remember seeing this particular video with AD.
 
I'm using headphones, maybe that will help you.
I don't have a youtube account and I'm not used to edit sound/videos, so that's the best advice I can give you
 
my question though is if this disconnect develops between 'paper' and physical gold prices where and to whom will you sell your gold and who will determine the price? How will you know what the mkt price is?
 
my question though is if this disconnect develops between 'paper' and physical gold prices where and to whom will you sell your gold and who will determine the price? How will you know what the mkt price is?
Local bullion dealers and the internet will set prices. The (fraudulent) exchanges will be bypassed. Markets always find pricing mechanisms.
It happened in 2008 by the way: The silver price at the COMEX fell down to arround $9. Dealers arround the world weren't offering silver for less then $10.
I have a contract with one of Switzerlands biggest dealers that he has to sell me silver (and gold) at COMEX spot (+ a fixed premium depending on the amount I order) whenever I call. So I'm prepared to take advantage if/when paper/physical spreads emerge once again.
 
yeah i guess that is possible. although since these current price providers are profit seeking organizations i think they would find some way to get closer to real prices or risk their business disappearing. The profit motive may push them back in line.

On a different note was curious what you guys thought about Buffett's comment in his recent letter on bond, gold and stocks. specifically his pt that you need new money to come in to buy the new mining supply and scrap every yr just to maintain equilibrium prices. as a result as prices go higher you need an ever increasing amount of money to just maintain the price forgetting about appreciation.

I disagreed with most of what buffett said but I did feel like this pt was noteworthy. Curious any thoughts on it.

Thanks
 
When the paper markets disconnect, price discovery for metals will happen the same way it does for most everything else. Supply and demand will drive the price that owners are willing to sell and buyers are willing to pay.

On Buffet's point, silver demand has far exceeded global mining output for many years now from what I understand. The world has been eating away at above ground reserves and this is part of the story that excites the pumpers about it's future potential.

Also, an "ever increasing amount of money" seems to be the whole problem driving precious metals in the first place. Central banks are locked in to their ZIRP and QE gameplans.

However, the precious metals markets are super tiny - puny if you will - in comparison to the money trading in other vehicles. Buffet's comment belies an assumption that the status quo doesn't change. A rather modest shift in the investing mindset of pension/bond/hedge funds to secure a 5% position in gold and silver would cause a *huge* price dislocation to the upside.
 

More: http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/18/china-precious-trading-idINL2E8IIDWC20120718
 
The biggest part of this is that the BANKS are going to be taking part in all this. People who are short China (and their banking system) are going to be in for a rude awakening when suddenly it's revealed that they are sitting on vast amounts of gold. I mean, where do these people think all that gold is going to? The general public? lol
 
SGE is a bit late with their interbank market, but still working on it apparently:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-12/lbma-chairman-says-chinese-gold-allocation-rise
 
Not sure what the consequences of that on prices will be. It might move pricing power to China, but it also might stop the overnight meltups.
http://www.bullionstreet.com/news/chinas-sge-to-launch-afterhours-trading-in-goldsilver/4241
 

More: http://therealasset.co.uk/chinese-gold-market/

 
The chart below shows the Shanghai monthly physical deliveries vs monthly world gold mining supply.

In the last two months, Chinese demand for physical delivery all by itself is nearly equal to total worldwide gold production. Couple that with the graphs we have seen showing miners are loosing money at the current spot price of gold. Some has to give, and that something is the price of gold, upward.



http://moneymorning.com/2013/07/10/if-you-own-gold-you-must-see-this-chart/#.Ud8icHddB8F
 
Wow !

The miners really ought to be stockpiling or mothballing.
It makes no sense to be selling below production costs into a wrongly priced market with huge demand. :flail:

.
 
The chart below shows the Shanghai monthly physical deliveries vs monthly world gold mining supply.
Wow indeed! I have only two words for that: "F..k me"! I might actually start to bite here a little. That's just INCREDIBLE demand, and from China ALONE!?!?
 
I don't know what regulations are in place here, but if dealers in Hong Kong are able to take delivery from the SGE, it could be (at least partially) related to physical/retail demand from tourists (Indians, etc.) in Hong Kong.
 

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-07-12/shanghai-gold-silver-volumes-surge-records-and-premiums-rise-night-trading-be

Trading volumes for gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures
Exchange (ShFE) jumped to record highs today a week after the bourse
launched after-hours trading, driven by a surge in investment and
hedging demand

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/12/china-gold-futures-idUSL4N0FI0ZE20130712
 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/12/china-goldpremiums-idUSL4N0FI2FF20130712

I can't believe it's so tight even though India the biggest consumer had a 70% drop of gold imports in June!
 
I'm getting the totally subjective feeling that we are at the stage where the tide has run away from the shore in anticipation of the tsunami that's coming.
 
Me too, but I got the same feeling, a little bit after the Cyprus thing and predicted silver would go to the moon in less than a hundred days or something They always seem to be able to drag it out a lot longer than I expect...
 

More on the SGE:

http://sprottgroup.com/thoughts/articles/the-shanghai-gold-surprise/


 
At this point, anyone that still believes the ETF's can or will eventually deliver any of the promised gold/silver is beyond delusional and deserves to lose their money. Sprott is the only guy out there who physically backs every single share dollar-for-dollar, and so will be the only remaining powerhouse when the smoke clears and the bodies are removed from the crime scene.

I find it amusing to listen to the supposed "experts" on the nightly idiot box speaking in terms that sound like there is actually real gold and silver backing Comex contracts.

There are going to be a lot of tears when this balloon goes up, and believe me, I have lots of popcorn stocked up for watching this show. It's going to be epic boyz and gurlz!!
 
Ancona, I've got my bucket-o-popcorn ready and waiting too. We will be watching the same fireworks show from all points across the country/world (excluding those of course that watch NBC, ABC, CBS Nightly News; they will be watching a different show).
 
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presumably some of the gold traded is simply being churned, otherwise selling more than is produced and delivering is a bit of a challenge ?
 
presumably some of the gold traded is simply being churned, otherwise selling more than is produced and delivering is a bit of a challenge ?

Speculation is/was that the draining of COMEX/LBMA/GLD stocks were going to support/supply SGE sales.
 
presumably some of the gold traded is simply being churned, otherwise selling more than is produced and delivering is a bit of a challenge ?

The other major source of supply is gold recycling, which is a significant amount per year. Chart from World Gold Council report, 2012:





Speculation is/was that the draining of COMEX/LBMA/GLD stocks were going to support/supply SGE sales.

Sure enough, and it can be seen in the Q1 and Q2 reports by the World Gold Council. ETFs have been net buyers of gold since early 2000 (see table below), but in Q1 and Q2 of 2013, they have been dumping physical into the market (see chart below):






Through Q2 2013, mining supply has remained steady despite the low gold prices, but I would bet we will see a mining supply decrease in the 2nd half of 2013 and possibly into 2014 due to the prevailing low gold price.

Recycling has already tailed off by about 100 tons per qtr in 2013 as compared to 2012 and 2011 due to the low price in gold.

Coupled with heavy Asian demand, this is all pointing towards a supply crunch within the next year or two, and I believe the supply crunch has already started.
 

http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/shanghai-gold-exchange-international-board-another-blow-to-us-dollar
 

 
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http://www.goldcore.com/goldcore_bl...ina_Launches_Global_Gold_Bourse_This_Thursday
 
China stops publishing Shanghai exchange's gold withdrawals. Keeping with the trend of a string of discontinuances of gold and monetary figures publication (M3 money supply, LBMA GOFO, etc).

Any linkage of the Shanghai news to the gold COMEX at record lows and nearly running dry?



 
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Any linkage of the Shanghai news to the gold COMEX at record lows and nearly running dry?
...

I doubt we ever see anything official to that effect, but I believe that cause and effect are stronger tidal forces than coincidence.
 
Its not really a disaster for the gold community is it ?

China feels the need to hide its gold strategy and a few watchful commentators / analysts loose access to a useful piece of data.

Availability of real gold and demand for delivery is not easy to identify though and probably never will be, even after paper suppression blows up.
 
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