Short technical take on gold and silver

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Jetstream said:
I'm going to go out on a limb with a definitive answer - Nope. ;-)
Click to expand...

Silver looking good today. The Daily shows the following bullish indicators:

1) MACD crossed into positive territory.
2) RSI got above the 50 mark again. This represent overbought/oversold/baseline market price sentiment.

The Weekly shows the following bullish indicators:

1) MACD Curling back up off itself
2) We used the 50 DMA as support.

Future predictions :
I still think the MACD won't be a strong turn, and we may see $30 again. BUT, and BIG BUT here- that was before this election outcome. With the current fiscal policy we have, I'm going to say $31.5 is the lowest we may go in the next few months. If we trade between the 50/200 DMA on the daily, while staying above the 50 DMA on the weekly, that'd be great consodlidation for the next leg. The RSI normally doesn't blow past 50 straight to power zone of 70, so we will likely see that consodlidation between the DMA's before moving back up.

Tis the season for a precious metals rally as well. Combine this with continued (poor) earnings by the corp.s and we may see a catalyst putting us above $34 soon.

This is again, all in my own opinion. I am no broker or advisor for you in anyway.

Thanks for your time, love the site!!
 
An updated Point & Figure .25 x 3 square reversal scale chart.

Two buy signals occurred today.

The first is a Bullish Signal formation (lite blue overlay). The significant feature of this chart pattern is a series of higher bottoms and higher tops. The first bottom was at 30.75 followed by a top at 32.25. Then a higher bottom at 31.25 and a higher top at 32.5 where the buy signal occurs. It is telling us that demand has overcome supply and that Silver, which was in a downtrend, is ready to make its upward move.

The second is a Spread Triple Top formation. This is a very broad formation and can have any number of vertical columns in it, from six up. The buy signal takes place on the penetration of three level tops at 32.5 (highlighted in broken red lines). These tops are not consecutive but have intervening moves between them. The buy signal occurs at 32.75
 

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Slver update

Silver continued its breakout from the two buy signals that were given earlier this month reaching 34 on the chart. It has penetrated the ST bearish resistance line while breaking out of the declining trend channel the past two months. Silver should also take out the ST bullish resistance line at 34.

 

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Louise Yamada:
Gold spot price (GOLDS-1,714.80) carried little immediate effect regarding a pick up in demand when the margin requirement for the gold futures was lowered mid month. Recent behavior has been unusual in that the dollar and gold have both withdrawn in price (they usually perform inversely). Gold appears weak (see Figure 10) and may need to extend the ongoing consolidation.
...
Support currently lies at the 40-week MA, 1,670, with 1,600-1,526 remaining the major critical support, were the negative momentum influence to cause further weakness. Were supports to break, 1,500 and 1,400 would return to the risk profile. One-year resistance is unchanged at the 1,800 level, with near-term resistance at 1,750.
...
Silver spot price (SILV-33.41) carries a similar pattern to Gold with the 40-week MA right at price support of 31, with the 2008 uptrend at 30, and the year-long resistance still at 35, as depicted herein last month. However, the weekly momentum is still positive but precariously flat; the monthly is still negative and also flattening. There is a symmetry pattern similar to Gold again suggesting further consolidation may be necessary if price can’t move through resistance at 35 over the near term. Critical support remains at 27-25.
...
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http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...The_Key_Levels_To_Watch_On_Gold_&_Silver.html

Hey! I'm not TA guru, but even I noticed the curious gold/USD action.

Yamada is signalling weakness, but all the "PM gurus" seem to be saying December is going to be a huge month. :popcorn:
 
As golds 50 dma has crossed it's 200 dma to the downside, major technical damage was done today. This doesn't necessary indicate serious issues, however, as Gene Arensberg explains. The current bull market teaches us, that there's about a 50% chance that the technical damage is completely meaningless :

History of the 'Death Cross' in Gold and Silver Charts

HOUSTON -- We thought we would publish charts showing the history of the so-called "Death Cross" for gold and silver since 2000, when the previous gold bear market arguably ended and the current bull market began. We offer these charts for what they are worth given the dozens of times the "Death Cross" has been mentioned today in televised financial media.

The very simple charts speak for themselves.

6a0120a6002285970c017d412ed0bb970c-800wi


The circles indicate each of the previous events where the 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average. Commonality can be found in at least one observation. Each of the events occurred at a higher, not lower level.

Rhetorical question: Does that mean that a "Death Cross" is actually a contrary bullish indicator?

Below is the same chart for silver.

6a0120a6002285970c017ee8a2b16e970d-800wi


One last point: Neither gold nor silver "knows" where the moving averages are currently. If the Death Cross is supposed to be a major bearish signal, then the metals have not been cooperative to the notion, so far. (Except for brief periods, such as the Great Panic of 2008.)
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http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2013/02/history-of-the-death-cross-in-charts-.html
 
We finally broke out of the 1560-1585 trading range in gold and immediately got a $10 jump. It would be great to hold that until the COMEX close. A surge above 1600 would be even better.

stock-photo-3810480-ball-jumping-out-of-the-water.jpg
 
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If it keeps on rainin',
the levee 's gonna break
...
 
We just touched ultra crucial support at 1525 and rebounded. If this breaks, watch out.
It's judgement day today. Time for the Eastern central banks to save the day.
 
Maybe we had the ultimate spike low for the turnarround, but it's too early to tell...
The speed of the decline to 1525 was insane, typical spike low activity.
 
*might be the low..

But honestly.. I have no clue at this point. If gold can put together a long tailed candle here we might be able to finally say that the lows are in. Realistically, you need some sort of pattern that would be consistent with a low. reversals are needed. From down 40 if we can get it down only 10-15, you can breathe a little.
 
The phyiscal offtake at the London pm fix should be supportive, if central banks are stepping in. As you said, anything above 1545 at the close would be encouraging.
The activity in other markets suggests that there is something bad going to be announced at the EU meeting today, so maybe the attack on gold was another operation.
 
well.. it was over 22k contracts inside of 10 minutes that marked the 7:15/7:20 low. That is a lot of volume and suggest that they took out some stops. pretty much immediately, buying came in and pushed gold up 10 bucks off it's lows and since then we've just been flopping around in a range between 1532 and 1538..

Premarket, the miners are making new lows for the move (surprise surprise) and we have even MORE positive divergences. It's truly amazing how much they have been able to destroy these miners when gold has barely moved by comparison. 50-70% correction in most names.
 
Total capitulation. Major technical damage in gold. No technical support in sight. We're in massive trouble now.
Support in silver is still holding
 
...goddammit! Just ordered some moar shiny in my usual place... Should've wait 30 min.s longer!

No major worries IMHO, still sitting on cash, mostly... and DCAging on the way down... Will gladly accept whatever bottom settles in eventually, to load my boat some more. I need every ounce of ballast possible!
 
Stacking is certainly going to be fun :cheers:
Regarding price performance, it's going to be an epic battle to go back above 1525. There's massive resistance.
Everything is set up for a short squeeze obviously, but the question remains at which level it is going to start...
 
swissaustrian said:
Stacking is certainly going to be fun :cheers:
Regarding price performance, it's going to be an epic battle to go back above 1525. There's massive resistance.
Everything is set up for a short squeeze obviously, but the question remains at which level it is going to start...
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stackers should just wait for big down days. They shouldn't try to be technicians. Hell.. I'm not sure anyone should try to be a technician in this crap.
 
DSAbug said:
stackers should just wait for big down days. They shouldn't try to be technicians. Hell.. I'm not sure anyone should try to be a technician in this crap.
Click to expand...

You are my man :) that's what I do, I listen to all you more experienced traders here, and then I buy only when I feel it in my piss, that it might be it... So far, so good - a bit in red with my gold (but should easily break into green with today's stunt - unless the bottom fells out...), rather firmly in green for silver - and many thanks to all of you for picking your collective brains...

What can you do, I was very late to the PMs party (started making any serious research/moves in 2011), yet I cannot afford to be WITHOUT any PMs, just because I was late. Like I said, slowly but steadily, I am getting where I want to be, and so far, I am doing OK - without jumping head first (not my cuppa..)!
 
...

I hear ya, Bushi.

A friend of mine believes "mucho" in technical analysis. He told me that for a while that gold has been looking bad. My response? If it goes down more, then I will just buy more as money comes in.

Same as it always has been, with luck, same as it always will be.
 
Gold Trades at Most Oversold Levels on Record
Monday, April 15, 2013 at 11:39AM

The price of gold is currently trading more than 4.5 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average, which clocks in at the most oversold reading since at least 1975. The chart below shows the daily overbought/oversold reading for gold based on the number of standard deviations it traded above or below its 50-day moving average. As shown, there have not been very many occurrences where the commodity traded more than 3.5 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average. In fact, there have only been ten.

Oversoldchartgold.png


Earlier today, we sent out a report to Bespoke Premium clients highlighting how gold and the S&P 500 performed in the past following each of these periods. Interestingly, there were some clear trends for each asset. Clients wishing to view this morning's report can click on the link below. If you are not yet a Bespoke Premium client, sign up today!
Click to expand...
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/4/15/gold-trades-at-most-oversold-levels-on-record.html
 
Metals seems to be showing some strength early this morning.
 
Gold is moving towards 1400. That would be a key breakout point. Everytime we came close to 1400, we fell down. If we manage to get through this time, there should be a nice jump. The first attempt to get going failed a few minutes ago.

2myyo7l.gif
 
Yes. The COMEX session is gonna be weak again, like Tuesday and Wednesday. I don't think we'll see 1400 today. Silver is in danger of losing 23.
 
Well we've broken 1400 to the upside this morning an rallied all the way up the next resistance at 1425. The crash really started at 1525 and stopped at 1320, so we got a 50% retracement of the losses. That's typical technical activity. Now we're at 1409 which isn't a sign of great strength. Silver didn't manage to break 24. Not a sign of strength either.
We'll have to wait and see if 1400 holds during the COMEX session. A weekly close above 1400 would be a positive sign after the horrors of this week.
 
We got a brief dip below 1400, but rebounded - for now.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a drop into the 1390 area today.
 
I will keep my fingers crossed, for the Brotherhood of Darkness getting their way again :). I am firmly in the red, (finally...), for both silver and gold, and I am fully prepared to be deeply in the red, and then take on significantly more.

Moar shiny metal for me that way. I was getting worried, that maybe my chance to buy metals for TRULY depressed prices has passed away, that I was way to late to the party - but the way things are going, I am honestly thrilled - I will have my chance to load the boat, most probably (and even current prices, I find very very attractive already)

Personally, I don't think there is enough blood in the waters yet, I think, to amount to a total capitulation, before the next wave up (and I suppose it is going to be THE big one - third...)
 
Looks like treading water on 1400. This isn't water polo!
 
Looks like gold is testing 1450 and silver is testing 24 today....
 
Tuesdays and Fridays have mostly been down days.

I'm looking to stack a bit more tomorrow.

We really need to get these numbers over the 18dma to set this trend and hold it.

With May approaching we could be range bound through the summer.

I'll stick my neck out and say the lows are in for this year.

-Q
 
Louise Yamada said:
...
The current Gold pattern is badly damaged technically (the bigger the drop the longer the need for repair). There is no guarantee the low has been seen, and we would advise against bottom fishing, which can be dangerous to one’s wealth. Most likely there will be rallies, as have come into place, and retreats as the supply-demand factors battle it out. A consolidation should lie ahead that either could begin a repair process, or a consolidation that could be followed by a new low (as those not having sold decide to do so on a bounce), or at best a test of the current low of 1,347.95.
...
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http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...tely_Incredible_Gold_Charts_&_Commentary.html
 
We got great technical action at the CRIMEX today:

Gold and silver are about to make a key reversal: opened lower than yesterday's close, made a new intraday low and then rallied all the way above yesterday's intraday high.

257g0p1.gif


auttw4.gif


one-day%20key.png


Additionally, silver touched massive support at 20 (from 2010 and 2008) overnight which completes the correction pattern from 49 to 20.

ag00-pres.gif
 
If the correction pattern is completed what do you think is going to happen next? (I feel like I'm on book 4 of the Harry Potter series)
 
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