Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)

Good question. Answer is unclear, but I suspect that the bullion banks thought the LBMA had sufficient free float vault stock to handle demand for a while.

They still seem to be pretty good buyers in the Gold contracts and taking delivery but since the beginning of March the buyer from the last 2 years or so seems absent.

Update (all values in metric tons) (see post #580 for last month):

Global Silver Vault Stock (in tons) - March 2026​

LBMA March Silver Vault Stock​

The LBMA's March silver vault stock report was another surprise for me. They reported a total silver vault stock number (27,487t) that was 195t less than my forecast (27,682t)!

PMBug Estimate​

Last month the LBMA vault stock report normalized with the UK silver import/export data, so I based my March forecast/estimate using the LBMA's February vault stock number as the base for my estimate.

As I mentioned in my forecast post:

Of special note - in January, the UK exported almost as much as it imported with the net import being just 26.6t. ... My estimate will be on the high side if net UK silver imports in March are closer to January (~2% of the total imports) than the 3 month average (~80% of the total imports) for the end of last year.

Click to expand...

Considerations​

Lease rates for silver drifted lower across the month of March. This would be consistent with increased LBMA free float and seems to me consistent with the LBMA's report this month.

As a reminder, back in October, the LBMA broke down when it had somewhere in the neighborhood of 110M ozt (3,421t) of supposed free float per rough estimates given the available data. The LBMA's actual liquid free float is likely ~3,000t presently (more or less).

It remains to be seen if the London vaulted ETFs (SLV in particular) overextended on draining and need to restock to normalize the ratio of their vault stock to the current spot price.

Global Free Float Observations​

Using the LBMA's report, the West has an upper bound of ~14,536 metric tons of free float vaulted at the LBMA + COMEX (not owned by ETFs). That's an increase of ~382 metric tons (12.3M ozt) from last month.

That sounds like a lot, but consider that the London based ETFs shed ~797 metric tons (directly increasing LBMA free float) and it is clear that the LBMA's free float should have been greater (if not for heavy outflows - probably to India and/or China).

The upper bound total global free float (TGFF) including China (SFE/SGE) is ~15,195t (an increase of ~290t from last month).

Global Free Float Value​

Last month, I estimated that ~$45.5B was enough to wipe out TGFF. Today I estimate:

LBMA + COMEX only (if China enforces export controls)
14,536t = 467,343,300 ozt x $80/ozt = $37.4B

TGFF (including China)
15,195t = 488,530,600 ozt x $80/ozt = $39B

Final Comments​

PSLV's silver vault stock is not directly available for settling COMEX or LBMA deliveries, so it is not included in the TGFF - I mention it because every 1,000 ozt that PSLV acquires is an LGD silver bar that is no longer available to the LBMA or global free float for trade settlement.

I am now tracking the global vault stock changes every day/week for the COMEX, SFE/SGE, SLV and PSLV. Of course, there is no daily or weekly data for the LBMA because they are run by dinosaurs. The LBMA apparently thinks their monthly grand total report provides sufficient transparency to their operations as they say:

LBMA said:

These figures provide an important insight into London's ability to underpin the physical OTC market.

Click to expand...

I frequently receive comments asking why I bother compiling this data. The comments commonly claim that the numbers are a fraud or they don't matter. Whether or not the numbers are completely accurate or not, they are the only public data we have and they *are* telling a story - revealing the rip currents of physical demand underneath the frothy paper market trading.

Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
LBMA ETFs:
PMbug's forecast for March LBMA vault stock:
COMEX: I am saving COMEX silver stock reports and tracking the totals in a spreadsheet now.
SGE/SFE: I am saving SFE/SGE vault totals from Xiaojun Bai's daily X tweets and tracking them in a spreadsheet now.
PSLV: I am saving Sprott's PSLV silver stock data and tracking the totals in a spreadsheet now.

Apr 11 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV589K
COMEX2.8M

COMEX run rate
SFE run rate (as of Apr 10)
SGE run rate ~172d (as of Apr 3)

Details

COMEX 4-9​

1.7M ozt (51.5t) in Brinks (1.2M), HSBC (448K)

39K ozt (7.8t) mostly from CNT

1.2M ozt (37.2t) magically "adjusted" into [E] in Brinks

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 327.9M ozt (76.8M [R], 251M [E])

Net "Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 55K/day DEPOSIT

Run rate =

COMEX Apr26​

Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 1,652
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 8,260,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 4,236,200.61

April withdrawals are ~51% of Apr26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Thursday's huge 2.8M net "deposit" obliterated the 5 DMA withdrawal rate. How does Brinks "adjust" 1.2M ozt of silver into existence? I sent an email to the CME asking for clarity.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rose from 0.38% to 0.41%

Interactive Brokers reports light borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:650K shares
JPM:589K ozt (18.3t)

SLV sheds a bit less than another third of Wednesday's inflow. SLV ends the week with a 635K inflow.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio .3410

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5.

Apr 13 AM Silver Market​

SFE $83.92 ($0.24 premium to SGE)
SGE $83.68 (~$9 premium to spot)
Retail $76.14
MCX $74.28 (premium to spot shrinking?)
Spot $74.20
Apr26 $73.04 (old quote) (EFP spread -$0.26)

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Last night, silver fell from ~$76 to under $73 and has recovered to ~$74+ this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:32 : $74.20

Apr26 = -$0.26 vs -$0.06 Previous (spot @ 19:20 Apr 12 - $73.30)
May26 = +$0.11 vs +$0.27
Jun26 = +$0.72 vs +$0.38 (spot @ 06:26 - $74.13)

EFP Commentary​

Apr26 EFP spread now firmly negative while Jun26 EFP spread blows out. Looks like the faucet to the COMEX->LBMA garden hose is opening again.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $84.60 (less 10% taxes = $76.14)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $80.04 (less 7.2% taxes = $74.28)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $79.38
MCX 'spot' : $79.02 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $83.68(no VAT)
SFE $83.92

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$9
SFE premium to SGE = $0.24

ICYMI:​

Apr 14 AM Silver Market​

SFE $87.61 ($0.27 premium to SGE)
SGE $87.34 (~$9.5 premium to spot)
Retail $79.82
Spot $77.46
Apr26 $77.94 (~1 hour old quote) (EFP spread +$0.04)
MCX $75.08 (under spot and Apr26!)

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday, opened ~$74, closed ~$75.50, rose ~$78 over night and has drifted back to ~$77.50 this morning. Great to see silver rise during both USA trading and overnight trading.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:38 : $77.46

Apr26 = +$0.04 vs -$0.26 Previous (spot @ 05:24 - $77.90)
May26 = +$0.20 vs +$0.11
Jun26 = +$0.48 vs +$0.72

EFP Commentary​

Apr26 EFP spread now positive! Apr26 EFP spread seems to be volatile lately - jumping up and down with big leaps.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $88.68 (less 10% taxes = $79.82)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $80.91 (less 7.2% taxes = $75.08)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $80.32
MCX 'spot' : $79.09 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $87.34(no VAT)
SFE $87.61

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$9.5
SFE premium to SGE = $0.27

ICYMI:​

~~~

Apr 14 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV634K
COMEX1.8M
SFE2.3M
SGE242K

COMEX run rate~613d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate (as of Apr 10)

Details

COMEX 4-10​

5K ozt (0.2t) in StoneX

1.8M ozt (55.8t) from Brinks (591K), Loomis (601K), MT&B (599K), et al

40K ozt (1.3t) moved from [E] to [R] in Brinks

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 326.1M ozt (76.9M [R], 249.3M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 209K/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 76.9M / 125K = ~613 (working) days(~31 months)

COMEX Apr26​

Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 1,657
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 8,285,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 6,030,815.75

April withdrawals are ~73% of Apr26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Friday's huge 1.8M net withdrawal re-established a net drain for the 5 DMA withdrawal rate. The huge drain occurred on a day where the Apr26 EFP spread was near zero (no profit arb for shipping silver to London).

Apr26 withdrawals/delivery requests ratio (~73%) is growing large much like April 2025 (~93%). We're only half way through the month. Will it grow greater than 100% like Feb26 did (~176%!)?

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee remains 0.41%

Interactive Brokers reports moderate borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:700K shares
JPM:634K ozt (19.7t)

Another small outflow. SLV London vault stock just under 403M ozt. It was last under 402M ozt at the end of November last year when spot was ~$56.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio .3410

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5.

SFE Run Rate​

2.3M ozt (70.6t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 15,820,450 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 985K/day deposit!

Run rate =

SGE Run Rate​

242K ozt (7.5t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 12,733,140 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 weeks = 155K/week DEPOSIT

Run rate =

China (SFE/SGE) Commentary​

SFE's 2.2M ozt inflow was only the second time I have seen a daily inflow >2M since I've been watching (since June 2025).

SGE reported a small inflow for last week, but maintains an inflow trend for the last few weeks.

Looks like the LBMA is delivering silver to China lately!

Hello, recently you said that it is guesstimated that JPM has ~80m oz. in Eligible that are tied up and can't be used for futures settlements. I'm curious if you have any guesstimates going back in time? I contacted Nick Laird and he sent me comex daily reports back to 2011, so I bit the bullet and loaded that into Access. I'm thinking if I can break out LBMA deposits & withdrawals (that would be another row in the middle of the Eligible area to be added into the form), Warranted ounces waiting for Withdrawal and Eligible tied to EFT's, that that might bear some semblance to what is going on in the 'transparent' Elgible department at the comex vaults.

The first pic is an adjustment whereby ounces have apparently been 'warranted' and separated from 'unwarranted'

The second is where, 'Warranted' ounces have been moved back to "Eligible" and I suspect being readied for Withdrawal.

I'm also open to ways to make the info more relevant, if you care to opine on that, thx
Steve

AGgregator said:

Hello, recently you said that it is guesstimated that JPM has ~80m oz. in Eligible that are tied up and can't be used for futures settlements. I'm curious if you have any guesstimates going back in time?

Click to expand...

JPM is the custodian for the iShares SLV ETF. They maintain SLV's vault stock in NYC (COMEX Eligible) and London (LBMA) vaults. The history of the NYC (COMEX Eligible) vault stock is as follows (in ozt):

Mar 17, 2026 : 88,168,893.500
Feb 19, 2026 : 91,168,894.600
Jan 16, 2026 : 94,169,332.700
Dec 16, 2025 : 97,171,049.400
Nov 20, 2025 : 100,171,112.200
Many years prior to Nov 2025 : 103,176,253.000

I expect JPM will reduce the NYC vault by another 3M ozt tomorrow or the next day as they have been doing monthly.

AGgregator said:

I contacted Nick Laird and he sent me comex daily reports back to 2011

Click to expand...

Nick is a good fellow.

AGgregator said:

... I'm thinking if I can break out LBMA deposits & withdrawals (that would be another row in the middle of the Eligible area to be added into the form), Warranted ounces waiting for Withdrawal and Eligible tied to EFT's, that that might bear some semblance to what is going on in the 'transparent' Elgible department at the comex vaults.

Click to expand...

To be honest, my brain hurts when I contemplate how this might work. A big problem that I foresee is that the bullion banks manage a house account (their own trading desk) in addition to customer accounts. I'm not aware of any source that breaks down the COMEX vault holdings amongst house and customer. Warranted ounces could be legit claims from customers or paper custody fuckery amongst the bullion bank house accounts. I am interested to see what you come up with though!

Apr 15 AM Silver Market​

SFE $89.20 ($0.01 premium to SGE)
SGE $89.19 (~$10 premium to spot)
Retail $80.13
Spot $78.51
Apr26 $79.58 (~3 hour old quote) (EFP spread +$0.38)
MCX $77.62 (under spot and Apr26)

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday, silver opened $77+, closed $79+, rose to ~$81 over night and has drifted back to ~$78.50 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:40 : $78.51

Apr26 = +$0.33 vs +$0.04 Previous (spot @ 04:02 - $79.25)
May26 = +$0.11 vs +$0.20
Jun26 = +$0.38 vs +$0.48 (spot @ 06:26 - $78.47)

EFP Commentary​

Apr26 EFP spread now firmly positive! I will be very curious if the COMEX posts a large withdrawal for today in tomorrow afternoon's report.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $89.04 (less 10% taxes = $80.13)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $83.64 (less 7.2% taxes = $77.62)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $83.32
MCX 'spot' : $83.32 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $89.19(no VAT)
SFE $89.20

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$10
SFE premium to SGE = $0.01

ICYMI:​

~~~

Apr 15 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV13
SLV589K
COMEX1.3M
SFE261K

COMEX run rate~460d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate (as of Apr 10)

Details

COMEX 4-13​

894K ozt (27.8t) in Asahi (294K), CNT (600K)

2.2M ozt (68.2t) from Asahi (60K), Brinks (1.5M), CNT (600K), et al

5K ozt (0.2t) moved from [E] to [R] in Brinks

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 324.8M ozt (76.9M [R], 248M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 279K/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 76.9M / 167K = ~460 (working) days(~23 months)

COMEX Apr26​

Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 2,233
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 11,165,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 8,223,388.96

April withdrawals are ~74% of Apr26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Monday's 1.3M net withdrawal raised the 5 DMA withdrawal rate and the run rate shrunk by 153 days.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee remains 0.41%

Interactive Brokers reports zero borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:650K shares
JPM:589K ozt (18.3t)

Yesterday's inflow was almost equal to the previous day's outflow. Is this the beginning of the SLV vault stock recuperation that I've been expecting?

PSLV​

units
13 ozt (0.0004t)
ozt/units ratio .3410

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5.

SFE Run Rate​

261K ozt (8.1t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 16,081,000 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 855K/day deposit!

Run rate =

Last week in silver (in metric tons):

Apr 6-10:
SGE silver vault - 7.5
SFE silver vault - 82.7
SLV London vault - 19.8
PSLV silver vault -
COMEX silver stock - 32.5
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no daily or weekly data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

I forgot to post a report last week! Here's the totals for Mar 30- Apr 3:
SGE silver vault - 97.9
SFE silver vault - 33
SLV London vault - 138
PSLV silver vault - 3.1
COMEX silver stock - 12.4
LBMA silver stock - ??? (no daily or weekly data because LBMA is run by dinosaurs)

Global net change (less LBMA):
Apr 6-10 = 77.5
Mar 30-Apr 3 = 88.6
Mar 23-27 = 20
Mar 16-20 = 290.4
Mar 9-13 = 535.50003
...

SFE + SGE vault stocks are both growing again. I'm very curious how much of their gains are due to silver exports from the LBMA.

The COMEX's drain was muted for the last couple of weeks. It appears to be ramping up so far this week however.

SLV actually managed a net inflow last week. Has SLV reached the vault stock drain bottom? I think so.

One can only imagine what chaos might be unfolding in the LBMA's London vault system right now. We can only imagine because the dinosaurs at the LBMA do not provide daily/weekly reporting of their vault stock like every other market and major fund in the world.

Apr 16 AM Silver Market​

SFE $90.87 ($0.23 premium to SGE)
SGE $90.64 (~$10 premium to spot)
Retail $81.18
Spot $79.68
Apr26 $79.18 (~2 hour old quote) (EFP spread -$0.37)
MCX $78.55 (under spot and Apr26)

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday, silver opened ~$79 and closed a few cents higher than it opened, then rose to ~$80.50 over night and has drifted back to ~$79.50 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 07:56 : $79.68

Apr26 = -$0.37 vs +$0.33 Previous (spot @ 06:08 - $79.55)
May26 = +$0.14 vs +$0.11
Jun26 = +$0.96 vs +$0.38 (spot @ 07:54 - $79.64)

EFP Commentary​

Holy volatility! Apr26 EFP spread now strongly negative and Jun26 EFP spread very strongly positive. COMEX->LBMA faucet is open again.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $90.20 (less 10% taxes = $81.18)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $84.64 (less 7.2% taxes = $78.55)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $84.24
MCX 'spot' : $83.96 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $90.64(no VAT)
SFE $90.87

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$10
SFE premium to SGE = $0.23

ICYMI:​

~~~

Apr 16 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV1.1M
COMEX3.14M
SFE663K

COMEX run rate~190d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate (as of Apr 10)

Details

COMEX 4-13​

ozt

3.14M ozt (97.9t) from Brinks (1.3M), JPM (1.3M), Loomis (601K)

75K ozt (2.3t) moved from [E] to [R] in MT&B

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 321.7M ozt (77M [R], 244.7M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 675K/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 77M / 405K = ~190 (working) days(~9.5 months)

COMEX Apr26​

Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 2,713
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 13,565,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 11,370,979.86

April withdrawals are ~84% of Apr26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday's huge 3.14M net withdrawal raised the 5 DMA withdrawal rate and the run rate shrunk by 270 days! After ~2 weeks of very week withdrawals, COMEX is making up for lost opportunity (as I expected).

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell from 0.41% to 0.37%

Interactive Brokers reports moderate borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:1.25M shares
JPM:1.1M ozt (35.2t)

SLV pushing the limits draining vault stock while spot price is rising. The last time SLV total vault stock was this low, it added 9.8M ozt over the next two days.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio .3410

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5.

SFE Run Rate​

663K ozt (20.6t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 16,744,110 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 817K/day deposit!

Run rate =

I know this is very ancillary but Australia just had a big fire at one of its TWO Refineries. HAHAHA pikers. And we know imports got a little harder to get.

But that means Australian mines might have a LOT of trouble getting diesel fuel. And we know they produce a lot of metal.

I think most of Australia silver exports head to China instead of London, but I haven't seen the data to confirm that.

It would be a closer trip and I think that is correct. Most of Australia's minerals head to China. But we know that the CFE is already critically low on Silver stocks. This won't help.

Market is rigged. They were telegraphing $80 for the weekend.

Apr 17 AM Silver Market​

SGE $89.20 (~$10 premium to spot)
SFE $89.12 (-$0.08 premium to SGE)
Retail $83.67
MCX $80.85 (> spot and Apr26 again)
Spot $80.25
Apr26 $78.61 (~14 hour old quote) (EFP spread +$0.20)

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday, silver opened ~$79.50 and closed ~$78.50, then fell to ~$77.50 over night before recovering back to $~79.50 this morning. At the open this morning, pop goes the silver to $81!

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 08:44 : $80.25

Apr26 = +$0.20 vs -$0.37 Previous (spot @ 17:10 Apr 16 - $78.41)
May26 = +$0.13 vs +$0.14
Jun26 = +$0.54 vs +$0.96 (spot @ 08:42 - $80.20)

EFP Commentary​

Holy volatility! Apr26 EFP spread now strongly positive (again). What in the heck is going on with the Apr26 contract?

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $92.96 (less 10% taxes = $83.67)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $87.13 (less 7.2% taxes = $80.85)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $86.76
MCX 'spot' : $84.01 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $89.20(no VAT)
SFE $89.12

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$10
SFE "premium" to SGE = -$0.08

ICYMI:​

~~~

Apr 17 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV453K
COMEX1.4M
SFE1.4M

COMEX run rate~133d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate (as of Apr 10)

Details

COMEX 4-15​

60K ozt (1.9t) in Loomis

1.5M ozt (45.6t) from Brinks (620K), CNT (189K), JPM (654K) et al

100K ozt (3.1t) moved from [E] to [R] in MT&B

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 320.3M ozt (77.1M [R], 243.2M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 966K/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 77.1M / 579K = ~133 190 (working) days(~6.7 months)

COMEX Apr26​

Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 2,728
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 13,640,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 12,836,792.66

April withdrawals are ~94% of Apr26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Wednesday's 1.4M net withdrawal raised the 5 DMA withdrawal rate and the run rate shrunk by 57 days. At this pace, withdrawals in April will exceed 100% of delivery requests (just like in February).

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell from 0.37% to 0.31%

Interactive Brokers reports light borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:500K shares
JPM (NYC):3M ozt (93.3t)
JPM (London):3.45M ozt (107.4t)

SLV did the NYC vault swap yesterday as I was anticipating.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio .3410

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5.

SFE Run Rate​

1.4M ozt (44t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 18,159,770 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 922K/day deposit!

Run rate =

Apr 18 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV (units increased!)
SLV1.36M
COMEX1.1M

COMEX run rate~73d
SFE run rate (as of Apr 17)
SGE run rate (as of Apr 10)

Details

COMEX 4-16​

1.1M ozt (35.8t) from Delaware (28K), JPM (639K), Loomis (482K)

moved between [E] to [R]

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 319.1M ozt (77.1M [R], 242M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.8M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 77.1M / 1M = ~73 133 190 (working) days(~3.7 months)

COMEX Apr26​

Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 2,772
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 13,860,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 13,986,184.75

April withdrawals are ~101% of Apr26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Thursday's 1.1M net withdrawal raised the 5 DMA withdrawal rate and the run rate shrunk by another 57 days. Withdrawals in April now exceed 100% of delivery requests (just like in February). There has been little movement of silver out of the [R]egistered vaults in the last week or so - this looks like bullion banks trying to support the LBMA.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell from 0.31% to 0.30%

Interactive Brokers reports minimal borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:1.5M shares
JPM:1.36M ozt (42.3t)

SLV putting the pressure on the LBMA's liquid free float vault stock now.

PSLV​

395,015 units
ozt
ozt/units ratio .3408

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. Units increased, ozt didn't. I assume they will add the corresponding ozt in the coming days.

Ok, First template done (and working so far, but it's early. There's some moving pieces, so there's bound to be a glitch or two.) This is JPM's data that I imported from Nick Laird showing Record #27 of ~3790 back in May of 2011.


The real questions about vault stocks (IMO) is how much is allocated to Storage for ETF's and is coming and going to other Exchanges. There's also termporary holding in Eligible for Withdrawals and Adjustments. Basically play whack-a-mole where CME Reports are not editable, but need to be referenced on the right side. The lighter grey boxes represent the totals from the CME Daily Reports with Cumulative Running Totals in darker shade to (keep) be matched-up with CME Totals. The white boxes take/give to Free-Float and allocate to either ETF and/or Exchange Transfer. We don't know the lots, but can use partials to keep the totals in-synch.

So, if it can be determined that 100,000 ounces were Deposited to back underlying ETF Storage, we move 100,000 up a level and reduce the lower level.

There's a couple ways to recognize the mistake in data entry. The adjustment needs to be lowered by 10,000 ounces, either in Free-Float or ETF Storage and the Daily Deposit (on bottom left) is overstated by the same 10,000 compared to the CME Daily Report Deposits for the day. Easily Fixed.

The Exchange Transfers / ETF seem to come rapid fire and fairly close to each other in the contract month. Can it be determined which is which? Here's a few examples. The older ones don't matter so much, but it would be nice to know when the Exchange / ETF movements are more able to be tied to the correct line item. The rest is just carrying the balances forward. Should be interesting. Also, if there are mistakes, where I'm not understanding the relationships correctly, thanks in advance for helping me get it right(er.)

AGgregator said:

... The real questions about vault stocks (IMO) is how much is allocated to Storage for ETF's and is coming and going to other Exchanges. ...

Click to expand...

I already provided you with the ETF data. AFAIK, SLV is the only ETF that maintains any vault stock in the COMEX vaults. All other ETFs maintain vault stock in London (LBMA vaults) or Canada (PSLV) or foreign countries (India for example).

Apr 20 AM Silver Market​

SFE $90.54 (+$0.37 premium to SGE)
SGE $90.17 (~$10.50 premium to spot)
Apr26 $82.37 (Apr 17 quote) (EFP spread +$0.57)
Retail $80.88
Spot $79.32
MCX $78.58 (< spot again)

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Last night silver dropped from ~$81 to ~$79, recovered back to $~80.50 and has drifted lower to ~$79 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:44 : $79.32

Apr26 = +$0.57 vs +$0.20 (spot @ 12:00 Apr 17 - $81.80)
May26 = +$0.07 vs +$0.13
Jun26 = +$0.38 vs +$0.54

EFP Commentary​

Apr26 EFP spread remains volatile with a huge jump to strongly positive as of Friday. Apr26 EFP spread now more positive than May & June.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $89.86 (less 10% taxes = $80.88)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $84.67 (less 7.2% taxes = $78.58)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $83.95
MCX 'spot' : $83.92 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $90.17(no VAT)
SFE $90.54

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$10.50
SFE premium to SGE = +$0.37

ICYMI:​

Apr 21 AM Silver Market​

SGE $89.77 (~$11 premium to spot)
SFE $89.76 (-$0.01 "premium" to SGE)
Retail $81.09
Apr26 $79.51 (Apr 20 quote) (EFP spread -$0.11)
Spot $79.09
MCX $78.28 (< spot again)

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened and closed at ~$79.50, fell to $~78.50 at night and has recovered to ~$79 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 07:44 : $79.09

Apr26 = -$0.11 vs +$0.57 (spot @ 08:50 Apr 20 - $79.61)
May26 = +$0.09 vs +$0.07
Jun26 = +$0.37 vs +$0.38 (spot @ 07:36 - $79.02)

EFP Commentary​

Apr26 EFP spread remains volatile, now moving negative (again) as of yesterday. May and June EFP spreads hold steady.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $90.10 (less 10% taxes = $81.09)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $84.35 (less 7.2% taxes = $78.28)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $83.79
MCX 'spot' : $83.30 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $89.77(no VAT)
SFE $89.76

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$11
SFE "premium" to SGE = -$0.01

ICYMI:​

~~~

Apr 21 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV996K
COMEX177K
SFE741K
SGE1.7M

COMEX run rate~90d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate (as of Apr 17)

Details

COMEX 4-17​

97K ozt (3t) into Asahi (88K), Delaware (9K)

1.2M ozt (38.8t) from HSBC (603K), JPM (646K)

200K ozt (6.2t) moved from [E] to [R] in StoneX

974K ozt (30.3t) "adjusted" into Brinks (611K [R], 363K [E])

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 319M ozt (77.9M [R], 241M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.4M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 77.9M / 861K = ~90 (working) days(~4.5 months)

COMEX Apr26​

Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 3,252
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 16,260,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 15,235,019.15

April withdrawals are ~94% of Apr26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Friday's 177K net withdrawal lowered the 5 DMA withdrawal rate and the run rate grew by 17 days. The net withdrawal rate was skewed by Brinks magical "adjustment".

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rose from 0.30% to 0.43%

Interactive Brokers reports minimal borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:1.1M shares
JPM:996K ozt (31t)

SLV London vault stock still bobbing around a range between 402M and 407M ozt.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio .3408

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. Units increased Friday and ozt didn't. Will they add the corresponding ozt in the coming days?

SFE Run Rate​

741K ozt (23t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 19,759,080 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 788K/day deposit!

Run rate =

SGE Run Rate​

1.7M ozt (51.6t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 14,393,090 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 weeks = 1.1M/week DEPOSIT

Run rate =

Apr 22 AM Silver Market​

SFE $89.32 (+$0.19 premium to SGE)
SGE $89.13 (~$11 premium to spot)
Retail $79.87
Spot $78.08
MCX $77.05 (< spot again)
Apr26 $76.88 (Apr 21 quote) (EFP spread -$2.30)

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened ~$79 and closed at ~$76.50, rose back to $~78.50 at night and has drifted lower to ~$78 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 07:22 : $78.08

Apr26 = -$2.30 vs -$0.11 (spot @ 07:00 Apr 21 - $79.18)
May26 = +$0.07 vs +$0.09
Jun26 = +$0.34 vs +$0.37 (spot @ 07:16 - $78.08)

EFP Commentary​

Apr26 EFP spread moved deeply negative yesterday. I'm not sure I've ever seen it that negative. Will it encourage a large flow of silver to London? May and June EFP spreads hold steady.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $88.75 (less 10% taxes = $79.87)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $83.03 (less 7.2% taxes = $77.05)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $82.39
MCX 'spot' : $82.97 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $89.13(no VAT)
SFE $89.32

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$11
SFE premium to SGE = +$0.19

ICYMI:​

~~~

Apr 22 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV223
COMEX246K
SFE955K

COMEX run rate~118d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate (as of Apr 17)

Details

COMEX 4-20​

1.5M ozt (46t) into Asahi (1M), HSBC (435K)

1.2M ozt (37.8t) from Brinks

1.3M ozt (40.5t) moved from [R] to [E] in Asahi (44K), Brinks (90K), CNT (1M), Delaware (88K), HSBC (20K), MT&B (45K), StoneX (5K)

2.6M ozt (82.4t) moved from [E] to [R] in Loomis

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 319.2M ozt (79.3M [R], 240M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 1.1M/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 79.3M / 674K = ~118 (working) days(~6 months)

COMEX Apr26​

Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 3,279
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 16,395,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 16,450,755.64

April withdrawals are ~100% of Apr26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Monday's 264K net deposit lowered the 5 DMA withdrawal rate and the run rate grew by 28 days. Brinks reports all of their magical "adjustment" from Friday left the vault Monday.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell from 0.43% to 0.42%

Interactive Brokers reports moderate borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:shares
JPM:223 ozt (0.007t)

SLV reports no material change yesterday. 223 ozt looks like an adjustment.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio .3408

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. Still waiting for ozt inflow corresponding to Apr 17 units increase.

SFE Run Rate​

955K ozt (30t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 20,713,860 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 927K/day deposit!

Run rate =

Apr 23 AM Silver Market​

SFE $86.25 (+$0.19 premium to SGE)
SGE $85.93 (~$10 premium to spot)
Retail $76.20
MCX $74.45 (> spot)
Spot $74.35
Apr26 $77.89 (Apr 22 quote) (EFP spread -$0.03)

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened ~$78 and closed at ~$77.50, fell to $~76 at night and has plummeted to ~$74 this morning. Physical silver is on sale this morning!

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:36 : $74.35

Apr26 = -$0.03 vs -$2.30 (spot @ 05:00 Apr 22 - $77.92)
May26 = -$0.10 vs +$0.07
Jun26 = +$0.17 vs +$0.34 (spot @ 06:30 - $74.37)

EFP Commentary​

Apr26 EFP spread remains volatile with infrequent/delayed reporting as it was near zero circa the last quote yesterday. May and June EFP spreads both shift negatively.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $84.67 (less 10% taxes = $76.20)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $80.22 (less 7.2% taxes = $74.45)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $79.46
MCX 'spot' : $80.68 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $85.93(no VAT)
SFE $86.25

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$10
SFE premium to SGE = +$0.32

ICYMI:​

~~~

Apr 23 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV2.5M
COMEX2.5M
SFE126K

COMEX withdrawals are ~115% of Apr26 delivery requests
COMEX run rate~132d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate (as of Apr 17)

Details

COMEX 4-21​

1K ozt (0.03t) into Delaware

2.5M ozt (78.4t) from Brinks (1.2M), Delaware (47K), Loomis (600K), MT&B (667K)

moved betwen [E] and [R]

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 316.7M ozt (79.3M [R], 237.4M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 998K/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 79.3M / 599K = ~132 (working) days(~6.6 months)

COMEX Apr26​

Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 3,288
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 16,440,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 18,972,181.22

April withdrawals are ~115% of Apr26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday's large 2.5M net withdrawal still lowered the 5 DMA withdrawal rate slightly and the run rate grew by 14 days. COMEX withdrawals running higher than delivery requests and predominantly draining the [E]ligible vaults.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rose from 0.42% to 0.43%

Interactive Brokers reports minimal borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:2.75M shares
JPM:2.5M ozt (77.4t)

SLV total London stock now ~403.6M ozt, so still ~1.6M ozt away from the 402M threshold that has marked the local bottom since the end of March.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio .3408

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. Still waiting for ozt inflow corresponding to Apr 17 units increase.

SFE Run Rate​

126K ozt (3.9t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 20,840,150 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 819K/day deposit!

Run rate =

Apr 24 AM Silver Market​

SGE $84.04 (~$9 premium to spot)
SFE $83.86 (-$0.18 "premium" to SGE)
Retail $77.57
MCX $75.33 (> spot)
Spot $74.83
Apr26 $76.26 (Apr 23 quote) (EFP spread +$0.32)

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened ~$75.5 and closed about the same, tread water over night and has drifted down to just under $75 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:52 : $74.83

Apr26 = +$0.32 vs -$0.03 (spot @ 09:50 Apr 23 - $75.94)
May26 = +$0.02 vs -$0.10
Jun26 = +$0.24 vs +$0.17 (spot @ 06:48 - $74.88)

EFP Commentary​

Apr26 EFP spread remains volatile with infrequent/delayed reporting as it was strongly positive with the last quote yesterday. May and June EFP spreads both shift positively.

CME lowering margins by 21.4% effective the end of today. Will this sucker retail back into the paper casino?

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $86.19 (less 10% taxes = $77.57)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $81.17 (less 7.2% taxes = $75.33)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $80.29
MCX 'spot' : $79.07 (taxes?)

China ​

SGE $84.04(no VAT)
SFE $83.86

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$9
SFE "premium" to SGE = -$0.18

ICYMI:​

~~~

Apr 24 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV2M
COMEX357K
SFE1.3M

COMEX withdrawals are ~124% of Apr26 delivery requests
COMEX run rate~168d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate (as of Apr 17)

Details

COMEX 4-22​

1.1M ozt (34.3t) into CNT (600K), HSBC (502K)

1.5M ozt (45.4t) from Brinks (1.1M), CNT (90K), Loomis (300K)

moved betwen [E] and [R]

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 316.4M ozt (79.3M [R], 237.1M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 788K/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 79.3M / 473K = ~168 (working) days(~8.4 months)

COMEX Apr26​

Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 3,301
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 16,505,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 18,972,181.22

April withdrawals are ~124% of Apr26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Wednesday's 357K net withdrawal lowered the 5 DMA withdrawal rate and the run rate grew by 36 days. This week has seen much higher than (recent) normal deposits. Withdrawals remain strong.

COMEX withdrawals still predominantly draining the [E]ligible vaults - I might need to rebalance the 60% [R] factor at this rate. Looks to me like the bullion banks are draining the COMEX to support the LBMA (which is apparently sending silver to China at a record pace).

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee remains 0.43%

Interactive Brokers reports zero borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:2.3M shares
JPM:2M ozt (64.7t)

SLV total London stock now ~401.5M ozt, below the 402M threshold that has marked the local bottom since the end of March. This while borrowing activity is essentially nonexistent. Will it go lower?

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio .3408

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. Still waiting for ozt inflow corresponding to Apr 17 units increase.

SFE Run Rate​

1.3M ozt (41.3t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 22,168,650 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 802K/day deposit!

Run rate =

Well they seem to be making it towards the end of the month and they have another delivery month here soon. Options exp Monday.

Seeing as how April withdrawals are currently 124% of Apr26 contract delivery requests, I'm not sure that "delivery month" really means anything anymore.

pmbug said:

I compared the total silver imports reported by India against the USA & UK export to India data since Jan 2025 and noticed that since Jan 2026, and very much uncharacteristically compared to all of 2025, 88% (Jan26) or more (91% Feb26) of India's monthly silver imports now come from the UK (LBMA - ~90%) and USA (COMEX - ~10%).

India does not report their import data granularly, but I'm fairly confident that in 2025, a significant percentage of their silver imports came from the UAE (Dubai). They changed the duty/tax schema for silver/UAE and it seems to have shriveled that supply source in 2026.

"But pmbug, what does that mean? Bullish or not?" It's just an observation, but to me, it means that Indian imports are currently tightly correlated with UK (LBMA) exports. If Indian silver demand increases, it should have a direct impact on LBMA vault stock.
...

Click to expand...

Apr 25 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV543K
COMEX1.2M

COMEX withdrawals are ~131% of Apr26 delivery requests
COMEX run rate~161d
SFE run rate (as of Apr 24)
SGE run rate (as of Apr 17)

Details

COMEX 4-23​

ozt

1.2M ozt (37.3t) from Brinks

2.2M ozt (67.2t) moved from [R] to [E] in Asahi (407K), Brinks (738K), JPM (792K), Loomis (223K)

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 315.2M ozt (77.1M [R], 238M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 798K/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 77.1M / 479K = ~161 (working) days(~8 months)

COMEX Apr26​

Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 3,308
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 16,540,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 21,632,155.61

April withdrawals are ~131% of Apr26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Thursday's 1.2M ozt net withdrawal raised the 5 DMA withdrawal rate and the run rate shrunk by 7 days. Withdrawals remain strong as we approach the month's end.

We finally see an [R] to [E] adjustment. Looks like they were holding off on it as long as possible and finally relented to the pressure. I think we see the run rate normalize at a number less than 3 months before long.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell from 0.43% to 0.42%

Interactive Brokers reports minimal borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:600K shares
JPM:543K ozt (64.7t)

As I expected, SLV inventory bounced off the previous day's low. SLV's London vault stock has been stubbornly clinging to the ~402M ozt level. It looks like the LBMA's physical stock slush fund is tapped out.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio .3408

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. Still waiting for ozt inflow corresponding to Apr 17 units increase.

pmbug said:

Apr 25 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV543K
COMEX1.2M

COMEX withdrawals are ~131% of Apr26 delivery requests
COMEX run rate~161d
SFE run rate (as of Apr 24)
SGE run rate (as of Apr 17)

Details

COMEX 4-23​

ozt

1.2M ozt (37.3t) from Brinks

2.2M ozt (67.2t) moved from [R] to [E] in Asahi (407K), Brinks (738K), JPM (792K), Loomis (223K)

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 315.2M ozt (77.1M [R], 238M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 798K/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 77.1M / 479K = ~161 (working) days(~8 months)

COMEX Apr26​

Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 3,308
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 16,540,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 21,632,155.61

April withdrawals are ~131% of Apr26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Thursday's 1.2M ozt net withdrawal raised the 5 DMA withdrawal rate and the run rate shrunk by 7 days. Withdrawals remain strong as we approach the month's end.

We finally see an [R] to [E] adjustment. Looks like they were holding off on it as long as possible and finally relented to the pressure. I think we see the run rate normalize at a number less than 3 months before long.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell from 0.43% to 0.42%

Interactive Brokers reports minimal borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:600K shares
JPM:543K ozt (64.7t)

As I expected, SLV inventory bounced off the previous day's low. SLV's London vault stock has been stubbornly clinging to the ~402M ozt level. It looks like the LBMA's physical stock slush fund is tapped out.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio .3408

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. Still waiting for ozt inflow corresponding to Apr 17 units increase.

Click to expand...

I just want to comment that your bullet point presentation of information is outstanding and very easy to consume

i am having a problem understanding how withdrawals can exceed contracts/deliveries

Ttazzman said:

I just want to comment that your bullet point presentation of information is outstanding and very easy to consume

Click to expand...

Thanks!

Ttazzman said:

i am having a problem understanding how withdrawals can exceed contracts/deliveries

Click to expand...

It happened back in February too (ending the month @ 176% of delivery requests). Seems clear to me that the bullion banks are just taking whatever they need from COMEX vaults to support the LBMA. LBMA spot and lease rates are both artificially low IMO as COMEX is being raided to keep the spice flowing (cheaply) to China and India. There is a total disconnect between the futures, spot and physical markets and most people are not seeing it and won't see it until we reach the breaking point. It should prove to be a very explosive event when the current schema fails.

I just posted this to X and was about to post it here, so your comment is very timely:

Silver Open Interest vs COMEX Physical Vault Stock Drain​

This topic seems to pop up all the time. This is my take after watching the data for a good while.

The issue boils down to two factors:

Monthly withdrawals (actual metal leaving COMEX vaults) = Y% of delivery requests (DR)

DR = X% of Open Interest (OI) prior to first day notice

@DtDS_WSS periodically posts a chart showing how the OI drops as we approach first day notice. I see a recent post with the chart for gold (see reply below). IIRC, silver is similar, but didn't see a comparable silver chart after a quick look at his timeline.

Generally, OI falls as we approach first day notice. Importantly, the rate of fall accelerates into the last few days. The Historically, the OI at first day notice seems to be ~10% of the OI three days prior (more or less). The bottom line is - don't get too excited about high OI more than a day or two before first day notice.

Figuring actual, physical monthly withdrawals based upon DR is a real conundrum. In 2025, it ranged from 9% (March) to 94% (June) (see reply below for details). Surprisingly, in February 2026, it finished the month at 176%! As of Apr 23, it is running at 131% so far for April.

With such a wide variance, it's basically impossible to forecast vault drain from delivery requests much less open interest. Especially since February, the COMEX vaults are draining as the bullion banks need it to in order to support the LBMA (ie. regardless of COMEX trading / delivery requests).

What has been fairly consistent is the drain rate of the [R]egistered category as a percent (~60%) of the net withdrawals in the COMEX vault system (see reply below for details). This is why I'm forecasting a run rate for the remaining COMEX vault stock based upon a 5 day moving average of net withdrawals. It's by no means a perfect system, and the results have jumped around a good bit lately, but that's a reflection of the recent 10x change in the net withdrawal rate. SLV draining bought the COMEX some time IMO, but that looks like it is at an end.

COMEX forecast: Pain

Ttazzman said:

I just want to comment that your bullet point presentation of information is outstanding and very easy to consume

i am having a problem understanding how withdrawals can exceed contracts/deliveries

Click to expand...

I think my understanding for a TlR answer. Deliveries in the messed up banker futures world just means they delivered a Warrant to the new owner. No metal really moves. The metal was in the vault and now you bought it and asked for them to deliver the ownership warrant. The metal was always there. And you can leave it in their vault as long as you like ( I think this is the Eligible category shown). The actual withdrawl means that perhaps you don't trust their vault system and don't want to resell the silver or need it for something. Then you back up the truck and leave town with the silver.

^ MBAeconomics (Mario's guest) reached out to me with some data questions, but I didn't see his DM until an hour later or so as I was out running errands.

pmbug said:

^ MBAeconomics (Mario's guest) reached out to me with some data questions, but I didn't see his DM until an hour later or so as I was out running errands.

Click to expand...

No worries, I picked up your slack.

Apr 27 AM Silver Market​

SFE $85.71 (+$0.01 premium to SGE)
SGE $85.70 (~$10 premium to spot)
MCX $77.40 (> spot)
Spot $75.61
IBJA AM Spot $76.59 (PM spot not posted yet)
Apr26 $76.38 (Apr 24 quote) (EFP spread +$0.68)

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Last night silver dipped ~$1, then recovered, dipped again, popped up ~$1, then returned back to where it started at ~$75.50 this morning. Anyone ever tell you to buckle up?

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:14 : $75.61

Apr26 = +$0.68 vs +$0.32 (spot @ 17:07 Apr 24 - $75.70)
May26 = -$0.01 vs +$0.02
Jun26 = +$0.28 vs +$0.24 (spot @ 06:02 - $75.69)

EFP Commentary​

Apr26 approaches close out. May26 approaches FND. Apr26 EFP spread currently strongly positive as of Friday close. May26 holding near zero, Jun26 EFP spread holding ground too.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $86.28 (less 10% taxes = $77.65)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $83.40 (less 7.2% taxes = $77.40)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $80.45
IBJA AM spot : $80.63 (less 5% duty = $76.59)

PM spot not posted as yet

China ​

SGE $85.70(no VAT)
SFE $85.71

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$10
SFE premium to SGE = +$0.01

ICYMI:​

Apr 28 AM Silver Market​

SGE $82.17 (~$9 premium to spot)
SFE $82.16 (-$0.01 premium to SGE)
MCX $75.12
IBJA PM Spot $73.90 (~$0.50 premium to spot)
Spot $73.37
May26 $73.28 (EFP spread -$0.09)

Details

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened and closed ~$75.50, pumped to $76 after the close, the fell to ~$74, paused and fell again below $73. It's recovered slightly this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:42 : $73.37

May26 = -$0.09 vs -$0.01 Previously
Jun26 = +$0.21 vs +$0.28
Jul26 = +$0.44

EFP Commentary​

Apr26 now off the board. May26 EFP spread heading more negative as it approaches First Notice Day.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $83.42 (less 10% taxes = $75.07)
Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $80.95 (less 7.2% taxes = $75.12)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $77.85
IBJA PM spot : $77.79 (less 5% duty = $73.90)

China ​

SGE $82.17(no VAT)
SFE $82.16

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$9
SFE "premium" to SGE = -$0.01

ICYMI:​

~~~

Apr 28 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV
COMEX29K
SFE521K
SGE2.3M

COMEX withdrawals are ~131% of Apr26 delivery requests
COMEX run rate~168d
SFE run rate
SGE run rate (as of Apr 24)

Details

COMEX 4-24​

29K ozt (0.9t) in HSBC

ozt

777K ozt (24.2t) moved from [R] to [E] in StoneX

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 315.2M ozt (76.3M [R], 238.8M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 757K/day

@ 60% [R], run rate = 76.3M / 454K = ~168 (working) days(~8.4 months)

COMEX Apr26​

Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 3,309
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 16,545,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 21,632,155.61

April withdrawals remain ~131% of Apr26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Friday's 29K ozt net deposit raised the 5 DMA withdrawal rate slightly and the run rate grew by 7 days. Apr26 no longer on the board, May26 not yet First Notice Day. Will there be any further withdrawals against Apr26?

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee remains 0.42%

Interactive Brokers reports zero borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock: shares
JPM: ozt

Another no activity day for SLV yesterday. That's the 5th one since March 25. It's hard for me to believe that SLV had zero activity.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio .3408

PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5. Still waiting for ozt inflow corresponding to Apr 17 units increase.

SFE Run Rate​

521K ozt (16.2t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 23,636,390 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 776K/day deposit!

Run rate =

SGE Run Rate​

2.3M ozt (71.2t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 16,683,340 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 weeks = 1.4M/week DEPOSIT

Run rate =

End of the month with a new delivery month here. Should be interesting but I think this is nearly the low and I'm gonna buy SLV calls i think. Cheap lotto ticket type calls.

Voodoo said:

... I'm gonna buy SLV calls i think. Cheap lotto ticket type calls.

Click to expand...

~~~

I've updated my charts comparing USA silver exports to COMEX withdrawals with the recently released February data.

First, a reminder that COMEX withdrawals in February ran 203% of Feb26 Silver 5000 contract delivery requests (51,176,538.34 ozt withdrawn vs 5,036 delivery notices representing 25,180,000 ozt).

Total USA silver exports in February actually exceeded the overperforming COMEX withdrawals!



The last time USA silver exports exceeded COMEX withdrawals was last October (when the LBMA was in serious trouble).

LBMA liquid free float got pretty low in January, so I had assumed the February COMEX withdrawals were evidence of the bullion banks trying to shore up support for the London market. However, the percentage share of COMEX withdrawals (silver exports) heading to London (for the LBMA) shrunk in February as more silver went directly to the UAE (likely indirect to India), Canada (wtf?), and Hong Kong (indirect to China no doubt).



COMEX withdrawals in April are currently running 131% of Apr26 Silver 5000 contract delivery requests. We'll have to wait until late June to get the USA export data for April to see how it compares to last February.

This is fine.

Hong Kong coming in strong.... needing to fill the Chinese markets such as the SFE?