Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)
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They still seem to be pretty good buyers in the Gold contracts and taking delivery but since the beginning of March the buyer from the last 2 years or so seems absent.
Update (all values in metric tons) (see post #580 for last month):
The LBMA's March silver vault stock report was another surprise for me. They reported a total silver vault stock number (27,487t) that was 195t less than my forecast (27,682t)!
Last month the LBMA vault stock report normalized with the UK silver import/export data, so I based my March forecast/estimate using the LBMA's February vault stock number as the base for my estimate.
As I mentioned in my forecast post:
Lease rates for silver drifted lower across the month of March. This would be consistent with increased LBMA free float and seems to me consistent with the LBMA's report this month.
As a reminder, back in October, the LBMA broke down when it had somewhere in the neighborhood of 110M ozt (3,421t) of supposed free float per rough estimates given the available data. The LBMA's actual liquid free float is likely ~3,000t presently (more or less).
It remains to be seen if the London vaulted ETFs (SLV in particular) overextended on draining and need to restock to normalize the ratio of their vault stock to the current spot price.
Using the LBMA's report, the West has an upper bound of ~14,536 metric tons of free float vaulted at the LBMA + COMEX (not owned by ETFs). That's an increase of ~382 metric tons (12.3M ozt) from last month.
That sounds like a lot, but consider that the London based ETFs shed ~797 metric tons (directly increasing LBMA free float) and it is clear that the LBMA's free float should have been greater (if not for heavy outflows - probably to India and/or China).
The upper bound total global free float (TGFF) including China (SFE/SGE) is ~15,195t (an increase of ~290t from last month).
Last month, I estimated that ~$45.5B was enough to wipe out TGFF. Today I estimate:
LBMA + COMEX only (if China enforces export controls)
14,536t = 467,343,300 ozt x $80/ozt = $37.4B
TGFF (including China)
15,195t = 488,530,600 ozt x $80/ozt = $39B
PSLV's silver vault stock is not directly available for settling COMEX or LBMA deliveries, so it is not included in the TGFF - I mention it because every 1,000 ozt that PSLV acquires is an LGD silver bar that is no longer available to the LBMA or global free float for trade settlement.
I am now tracking the global vault stock changes every day/week for the COMEX, SFE/SGE, SLV and PSLV. Of course, there is no daily or weekly data for the LBMA because they are run by dinosaurs. The LBMA apparently thinks their monthly grand total report provides sufficient transparency to their operations as they say:
I frequently receive comments asking why I bother compiling this data. The comments commonly claim that the numbers are a fraud or they don't matter. Whether or not the numbers are completely accurate or not, they are the only public data we have and they *are* telling a story - revealing the rip currents of physical demand underneath the frothy paper market trading.
Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
LBMA ETFs:
PMbug's forecast for March LBMA vault stock:
COMEX: I am saving COMEX silver stock reports and tracking the totals in a spreadsheet now.
SGE/SFE: I am saving SFE/SGE vault totals from Xiaojun Bai's daily X tweets and tracking them in a spreadsheet now.
PSLV: I am saving Sprott's PSLV silver stock data and tracking the totals in a spreadsheet now.
Global Silver Vault Stock (in tons) - March 2026
Market | This month | Last month | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| LBMA (Total) | 27,487 | 27,065 | 422 |
| ETFs (LBMA vaults) | 20,400 | 21,197 | -797 |
| LBMA Free Float (LBMA-ETFs) | 7,087 | 5,868 | 1,219 |
| PMBug Estimate LBMA Total | 27,682 | 27,065 | 617 |
| PMBug Estimate LBMA Free Float | 7,282 | 5,868 | 1,414 |
| COMEX | 10,191.36 | 11,121.53 | -930.17 |
| SLV NYC Vault | 2,742.36 | 2,835.67 | -93.31 |
| COMEX-SLV (free float) | 7,449.00 | 8,285.86 | -836.86 |
| SFE/SGE | 659.307 | 751.631 | -92.324 |
| PSLV | 6,744.263 | 6,747.364 | -3.101 |
LBMA March Silver Vault Stock
The LBMA's March silver vault stock report was another surprise for me. They reported a total silver vault stock number (27,487t) that was 195t less than my forecast (27,682t)!
PMBug Estimate
Last month the LBMA vault stock report normalized with the UK silver import/export data, so I based my March forecast/estimate using the LBMA's February vault stock number as the base for my estimate.
As I mentioned in my forecast post:
Considerations
Lease rates for silver drifted lower across the month of March. This would be consistent with increased LBMA free float and seems to me consistent with the LBMA's report this month.
As a reminder, back in October, the LBMA broke down when it had somewhere in the neighborhood of 110M ozt (3,421t) of supposed free float per rough estimates given the available data. The LBMA's actual liquid free float is likely ~3,000t presently (more or less).
It remains to be seen if the London vaulted ETFs (SLV in particular) overextended on draining and need to restock to normalize the ratio of their vault stock to the current spot price.
Global Free Float Observations
Using the LBMA's report, the West has an upper bound of ~14,536 metric tons of free float vaulted at the LBMA + COMEX (not owned by ETFs). That's an increase of ~382 metric tons (12.3M ozt) from last month.
That sounds like a lot, but consider that the London based ETFs shed ~797 metric tons (directly increasing LBMA free float) and it is clear that the LBMA's free float should have been greater (if not for heavy outflows - probably to India and/or China).
The upper bound total global free float (TGFF) including China (SFE/SGE) is ~15,195t (an increase of ~290t from last month).
Global Free Float Value
Last month, I estimated that ~$45.5B was enough to wipe out TGFF. Today I estimate:
LBMA + COMEX only (if China enforces export controls)
14,536t = 467,343,300 ozt x $80/ozt = $37.4B
TGFF (including China)
15,195t = 488,530,600 ozt x $80/ozt = $39B
Final Comments
PSLV's silver vault stock is not directly available for settling COMEX or LBMA deliveries, so it is not included in the TGFF - I mention it because every 1,000 ozt that PSLV acquires is an LGD silver bar that is no longer available to the LBMA or global free float for trade settlement.
I am now tracking the global vault stock changes every day/week for the COMEX, SFE/SGE, SLV and PSLV. Of course, there is no daily or weekly data for the LBMA because they are run by dinosaurs. The LBMA apparently thinks their monthly grand total report provides sufficient transparency to their operations as they say:
LBMA said:
I frequently receive comments asking why I bother compiling this data. The comments commonly claim that the numbers are a fraud or they don't matter. Whether or not the numbers are completely accurate or not, they are the only public data we have and they *are* telling a story - revealing the rip currents of physical demand underneath the frothy paper market trading.
Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
LBMA ETFs:
PMbug's forecast for March LBMA vault stock:
COMEX: I am saving COMEX silver stock reports and tracking the totals in a spreadsheet now.
SGE/SFE: I am saving SFE/SGE vault totals from Xiaojun Bai's daily X tweets and tracking them in a spreadsheet now.
PSLV: I am saving Sprott's PSLV silver stock data and tracking the totals in a spreadsheet now.
Apr 11 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)
PSLV
SLV
589K
COMEX
2.8MCOMEX run rate
SFE run rate
(as of Apr 10)SGE run rate ~172d (as of Apr 3)
Details
COMEX 4-9
1.7M ozt (51.5t) in Brinks (1.2M), HSBC (448K)39K ozt (7.8t) mostly from CNT1.2M ozt (37.2t) magically "adjusted" into [E] in Brinks
COMEX Run Rate
Remaining Vault Stock = 327.9M ozt (76.8M [R], 251M [E])
Net "Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 55K/day DEPOSIT
Run rate =
COMEX Apr26
Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 1,652
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 8,260,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 4,236,200.61
April withdrawals are ~51% of Apr26 delivery requests.
COMEX Commentary
Thursday's huge 2.8M net "deposit" obliterated the 5 DMA withdrawal rate. How does Brinks "adjust" 1.2M ozt of silver into existence? I sent an email to the CME asking for clarity.
SLV Share Lending
10M Shares available
Borrow fee rose from 0.38% to 0.41%
Interactive Brokers reports light borrowing activity yesterday.
SLV Assets
Blackrock:
650K sharesJPM:
589K ozt (18.3t)SLV sheds a bit less than another third of Wednesday's inflow. SLV ends the week with a 635K inflow.
PSLV
unitsoztozt/units ratio .3410
PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5.
Apr 13 AM Silver Market
SFE $83.92 ($0.24 premium to SGE) SGE $83.68 (~$9 premium to 
spot)
Retail $76.14 MCX $74.28 (premium to spot shrinking?) Spot $74.20
Apr26 $73.04 (old quote) (EFP spread -$0.26)Details
LBMA Spot
Last night, silver fell from ~$76 to under $73 and has recovered to ~$74+ this morning.
EFP Spreads (ET)
Spot price @ 06:32 : $74.20
Apr26 = -$0.26 vs -$0.06 Previous (spot @ 19:20 Apr 12 - $73.30)
May26 = +$0.11 vs +$0.27
Jun26 = +$0.72 vs +$0.38 (spot @ 06:26 - $74.13)
EFP Commentary
Apr26 EFP spread now firmly negative while Jun26 EFP spread blows out. Looks like the faucet to the COMEX->LBMA garden hose is opening again.
India
MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $84.60 (less 10% taxes = $76.14)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $80.04 (less 7.2% taxes = $74.28)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $79.38
MCX 'spot' : $79.02 (taxes?)
China
SGE $83.68
(no VAT)SFE $83.92
SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$9
SFE premium to SGE = $0.24
ICYMI:
Apr 14 AM Silver Market
SFE $87.61 ($0.27 premium to SGE) SGE $87.34 (~$9.5 premium to spot) Retail $79.82 Spot $77.46 Apr26 $77.94 (~1 hour old quote) (EFP spread +$0.04) MCX $75.08 (under spot and Apr26!)Details
LBMA Spot
Yesterday, opened ~$74, closed ~$75.50, rose ~$78 over night and has drifted back to ~$77.50 this morning. Great to see silver rise during both USA trading and overnight trading.
EFP Spreads (ET)
Spot price @ 06:38 : $77.46
Apr26 = +$0.04 vs -$0.26 Previous (spot @ 05:24 - $77.90)
May26 = +$0.20 vs +$0.11
Jun26 = +$0.48 vs +$0.72
EFP Commentary
Apr26 EFP spread now positive! Apr26 EFP spread seems to be volatile lately - jumping up and down with big leaps.
India
MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $88.68 (less 10% taxes = $79.82)
Apr26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $80.91 (less 7.2% taxes = $75.08)
May26 [SILVER 30kg] : $80.32
MCX 'spot' : $79.09 (taxes?)
China
SGE $87.34
(no VAT)SFE $87.61
SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$9.5
SFE premium to SGE = $0.27
ICYMI:
~~~
Apr 14 AM Silver Vaults (ozt)
PSLV
SLV
634KCOMEX
1.8MSFE
2.3MSGE
242KCOMEX run rate
~613dSFE run rate
SGE run rate
(as of Apr 10) Details
COMEX 4-10
5K ozt (0.2t) in StoneX1.8M ozt (55.8t) from Brinks (591K), Loomis (601K), MT&B (599K), et al40K ozt (1.3t) moved from [E] to [R] in Brinks
COMEX Run Rate
Remaining Vault Stock = 326.1M ozt (76.9M [R], 249.3M [E])
Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 209K/day
@ 60% [R], run rate = 76.9M / 125K = ~613 (working) days
(~31 months)COMEX Apr26
Apr26 contract cumulative deliveries = 1,657
Apr26 contract equivalent ozt = 8,285,000
Actual withdrawals in Apr ozt = 6,030,815.75
April withdrawals are ~73% of Apr26 delivery requests.
COMEX Commentary
Friday's huge 1.8M net withdrawal re-established a net drain for the 5 DMA withdrawal rate. The huge drain occurred on a day where the Apr26 EFP spread was near zero (no profit arb for shipping silver to London).
Apr26 withdrawals/delivery requests ratio (~73%) is growing large much like April 2025 (~93%). We're only half way through the month. Will it grow greater than 100% like Feb26 did (~176%!)?
SLV Share Lending
10M Shares available
Borrow fee remains 0.41%
Interactive Brokers reports moderate borrowing activity yesterday.
SLV Assets
Blackrock:
700K sharesJPM:
634K ozt (19.7t)Another small outflow. SLV London vault stock just under 403M ozt. It was last under 402M ozt at the end of November last year when spot was ~$56.
PSLV
unitsoztozt/units ratio .3410
PSLV's last addition to the vault stock was on Feb 5.SFE Run Rate
2.3M ozt (70.6t)Remaining Vault Stock = 15,820,450 ozt
"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 985K/day deposit!
Run rate =
SGE Run Rate
242K ozt (7.5t)Remaining Vault Stock = 12,733,140 ozt
"Withdraw" rate through last 5 weeks = 155K/week DEPOSIT
Run rate =
China (SFE/SGE) Commentary
SFE's 2.2M ozt inflow was only the second time I have seen a daily inflow >2M since I've been watching (since June 2025).
SGE reported a small inflow for last week, but maintains an inflow trend for the last few weeks.
Looks like the LBMA is delivering silver to China lately!
AGgregator
Fly on the Wall
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Hello, recently you said that it is guesstimated that JPM has ~80m oz. in Eligible that are tied up and can't be used for futures settlements. I'm curious if you have any guesstimates going back in time? I contacted Nick Laird and he sent me comex daily reports back to 2011, so I bit the bullet and loaded that into Access. I'm thinking if I can break out LBMA deposits & withdrawals (that would be another row in the middle of the Eligible area to be added into the form), Warranted ounces waiting for Withdrawal and Eligible tied to EFT's, that that might bear some semblance to what is going on in the 'transparent' Elgible department at the comex vaults.
The first pic is an adjustment whereby ounces have apparently been 'warranted' and separated from 'unwarranted'
The second is where, 'Warranted' ounces have been moved back to "Eligible" and I suspect being readied for Withdrawal.
I'm also open to ways to make the info more relevant, if you care to opine on that, thx
Steve
The first pic is an adjustment whereby ounces have apparently been 'warranted' and separated from 'unwarranted'
The second is where, 'Warranted' ounces have been moved back to "Eligible" and I suspect being readied for Withdrawal.
I'm also open to ways to make the info more relevant, if you care to opine on that, thx
Steve