Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)
- Thread starter pmbug
- Start date
- Featured
-
- Tags
- physical demand
Welcome to the Precious Metals Bug Forums
Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more.
Why not register an account and join the discussions? When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no Google ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!
They still seem to be pretty good buyers in the Gold contracts and taking delivery but since the beginning of March the buyer from the last 2 years or so seems absent.
Update (all values in metric tons) (see post #580 for last month):
The LBMA's March silver vault stock report was another surprise for me. They reported a total silver vault stock number (27,487t) that was 195t less than my forecast (27,682t)!
Last month the LBMA vault stock report normalized with the UK silver import/export data, so I based my March forecast/estimate using the LBMA's February vault stock number as the base for my estimate.
As I mentioned in my forecast post:
Lease rates for silver drifted lower across the month of March. This would be consistent with increased LBMA free float and seems to me consistent with the LBMA's report this month.
As a reminder, back in October, the LBMA broke down when it had somewhere in the neighborhood of 110M ozt (3,421t) of supposed free float per rough estimates given the available data. The LBMA's actual liquid free float is likely ~3,000t presently (more or less).
It remains to be seen if the London vaulted ETFs (SLV in particular) overextended on draining and need to restock to normalize the ratio of their vault stock to the current spot price.
Using the LBMA's report, the West has an upper bound of ~14,536 metric tons of free float vaulted at the LBMA + COMEX (not owned by ETFs). That's an increase of ~382 metric tons (12.3M ozt) from last month.
That sounds like a lot, but consider that the London based ETFs shed ~797 metric tons (directly increasing LBMA free float) and it is clear that the LBMA's free float should have been greater (if not for heavy outflows - probably to India and/or China).
The upper bound total global free float (TGFF) including China (SFE/SGE) is ~15,195t (an increase of ~290t from last month).
Last month, I estimated that ~$45.5B was enough to wipe out TGFF. Today I estimate:
LBMA + COMEX only (if China enforces export controls)
14,536t = 467,343,300 ozt x $80/ozt = $37.4B
TGFF (including China)
15,195t = 488,530,600 ozt x $80/ozt = $39B
PSLV's silver vault stock is not directly available for settling COMEX or LBMA deliveries, so it is not included in the TGFF - I mention it because every 1,000 ozt that PSLV acquires is an LGD silver bar that is no longer available to the LBMA or global free float for trade settlement.
I am now tracking the global vault stock changes every day/week for the COMEX, SFE/SGE, SLV and PSLV. Of course, there is no daily or weekly data for the LBMA because they are run by dinosaurs. The LBMA apparently thinks their monthly grand total report provides sufficient transparency to their operations as they say:
I frequently receive comments asking why I bother compiling this data. The comments commonly claim that the numbers are a fraud or they don't matter. Whether or not the numbers are completely accurate or not, they are the only public data we have and they *are* telling a story - revealing the rip currents of physical demand underneath the frothy paper market trading.
Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
LBMA ETFs:
PMbug's forecast for March LBMA vault stock:
COMEX: I am saving COMEX silver stock reports and tracking the totals in a spreadsheet now.
SGE/SFE: I am saving SFE/SGE vault totals from Xiaojun Bai's daily X tweets and tracking them in a spreadsheet now.
PSLV: I am saving Sprott's PSLV silver stock data and tracking the totals in a spreadsheet now.
Global Silver Vault Stock (in tons) - March 2026
Market | This month | Last month | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| LBMA (Total) | 27,487 | 27,065 | 422 |
| ETFs (LBMA vaults) | 20,400 | 21,197 | -797 |
| LBMA Free Float (LBMA-ETFs) | 7,087 | 5,868 | 1,219 |
| PMBug Estimate LBMA Total | 27,682 | 27,065 | 617 |
| PMBug Estimate LBMA Free Float | 7,282 | 5,868 | 1,414 |
| COMEX | 10,191.36 | 11,121.53 | -930.17 |
| SLV NYC Vault | 2,742.36 | 2,835.67 | -93.31 |
| COMEX-SLV (free float) | 7,449.00 | 8,285.86 | -836.86 |
| SFE/SGE | 659.307 | 751.631 | -92.324 |
| PSLV | 6,744.263 | 6,747.364 | -3.101 |
LBMA March Silver Vault Stock
The LBMA's March silver vault stock report was another surprise for me. They reported a total silver vault stock number (27,487t) that was 195t less than my forecast (27,682t)!
PMBug Estimate
Last month the LBMA vault stock report normalized with the UK silver import/export data, so I based my March forecast/estimate using the LBMA's February vault stock number as the base for my estimate.
As I mentioned in my forecast post:
Considerations
Lease rates for silver drifted lower across the month of March. This would be consistent with increased LBMA free float and seems to me consistent with the LBMA's report this month.
As a reminder, back in October, the LBMA broke down when it had somewhere in the neighborhood of 110M ozt (3,421t) of supposed free float per rough estimates given the available data. The LBMA's actual liquid free float is likely ~3,000t presently (more or less).
It remains to be seen if the London vaulted ETFs (SLV in particular) overextended on draining and need to restock to normalize the ratio of their vault stock to the current spot price.
Global Free Float Observations
Using the LBMA's report, the West has an upper bound of ~14,536 metric tons of free float vaulted at the LBMA + COMEX (not owned by ETFs). That's an increase of ~382 metric tons (12.3M ozt) from last month.
That sounds like a lot, but consider that the London based ETFs shed ~797 metric tons (directly increasing LBMA free float) and it is clear that the LBMA's free float should have been greater (if not for heavy outflows - probably to India and/or China).
The upper bound total global free float (TGFF) including China (SFE/SGE) is ~15,195t (an increase of ~290t from last month).
Global Free Float Value
Last month, I estimated that ~$45.5B was enough to wipe out TGFF. Today I estimate:
LBMA + COMEX only (if China enforces export controls)
14,536t = 467,343,300 ozt x $80/ozt = $37.4B
TGFF (including China)
15,195t = 488,530,600 ozt x $80/ozt = $39B
Final Comments
PSLV's silver vault stock is not directly available for settling COMEX or LBMA deliveries, so it is not included in the TGFF - I mention it because every 1,000 ozt that PSLV acquires is an LGD silver bar that is no longer available to the LBMA or global free float for trade settlement.
I am now tracking the global vault stock changes every day/week for the COMEX, SFE/SGE, SLV and PSLV. Of course, there is no daily or weekly data for the LBMA because they are run by dinosaurs. The LBMA apparently thinks their monthly grand total report provides sufficient transparency to their operations as they say:
LBMA said:
I frequently receive comments asking why I bother compiling this data. The comments commonly claim that the numbers are a fraud or they don't matter. Whether or not the numbers are completely accurate or not, they are the only public data we have and they *are* telling a story - revealing the rip currents of physical demand underneath the frothy paper market trading.
Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
LBMA ETFs:
PMbug's forecast for March LBMA vault stock:
COMEX: I am saving COMEX silver stock reports and tracking the totals in a spreadsheet now.
SGE/SFE: I am saving SFE/SGE vault totals from Xiaojun Bai's daily X tweets and tracking them in a spreadsheet now.
PSLV: I am saving Sprott's PSLV silver stock data and tracking the totals in a spreadsheet now.