Silver Market 260521

May 21 AM Silver Market​

SGE Spot $83.80 (~$8 LBMA Spot)
SFE Futures $83.65 ($0.15 SGE Spot)
IBJA PM Spot $76.94 (~$2 LBMA Spot)
LBMA Spot $75.00
COMEX May26 Futures $75.91 (May 20 2pm - EFP spread -$0.15)
MCX Futures $74.23 (~$2.70 IBJA PM Spot)

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened at ~$75.50, dropped down to ~$74.50 and closed back just above ~$75.50. It spiked at night to almost $77 but fell back under $75 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 07:18 : $75.00

May26 = -$0.15 vs +$0.06 Previously (spot @ 14:00 May 20 : $76.06)
Jun26 = +$0.02 vs +$0.08 (spot @ 07:12 : $74.90)
Jul26 = +$0.22 vs +$0.26

EFP Commentary​

May EFP spread has turned negative again. Jun EFP spread near zero. Will withdrawals pick up again?

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $92.18 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(BCD+AIDC)) = $75.17)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $88.58 (less 16.2% BCD+AISD+Cess taxes = $74.23)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $87.32
IBJA PM spot : $85.49 (less 10% BCD duty = $76.94)

MMTP-PAMP (retail proxy) is less than IBJA spot. MCX futures are also less than IBJA spot when adjusting for import duties and taxes.

China ​

SGE $83.80(no VAT)
SFE $83.65

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$8
SFE "premium" to SGE = -$0.15

SFE now at a discount to SGE.


~~~

May 21 Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV (again!)
COMEX23K
SFE162K

COMEX withdrawals are now ~29% of May26 delivery requests
COMEX run rates
SFE run rate
SGE run rate (as of May 15)

COMEX 5-19​

619K ozt (19.3t) in Loomis (600K), MT&B (19K)

642K ozt (20t) from Delaware (1K), Loomis (641K)

101K ozt (3.1t) moved from [E] to [R] in Delaware

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 315.9M ozt (81.7M [R], 234.2M [E])

Net "withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 536K/day DEPOSIT

@ 52% [R], run rate =

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound =

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound =

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg =

COMEX May26​

May26 contract cumulative deliveries = 5,681
May26 contract equivalent ozt = 28,405,000
Actual withdrawals in May ozt = 8,124,585.83

May withdrawals are now ~29% of May26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday's 23K ozt net withdrawal shrunk the 5 DMA deposit rate slightly. Run rates remain indeterminate with a net deposit rate.

Tuesday's 642K actual withdrawal occurred on a day where the May26 contract's EFP spread was firmly positive (when there was no arbitrage profit to be made delivering silver to London).

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell 0.43% to 0.41%

Interactive Brokers reports minimal borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:shares
JPM:ozt

Second day in a row that SLV reports zero activity. This is not normal.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio 0.34112

PSLV going back to sleep I guess...

SFE Run Rate​

162K ozt (5t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 31,819,210 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 725K/day deposit!

Run rate =

The 5 DMA deposit rate continues to shrink this week. Is the LBMA curtailing silver deliveries to China?

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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-report-260519.8939/

Indian Spot prices do appear to be rising, against both London spot and their own futures. Who knows what their futures are seeing but probably the same game as ours.

I'm guessing there has been some dampening of investor enthusiasm/sentiment with the government crackdown on the market (raising import duties/taxes and imposing import restrictions). I'm also guessing black market trade (off book) for smuggled silver will grow.