Silver Market 260521

[pmbug]

May 21 AM Silver Market​

SGE Spot $83.80 (~$8 LBMA Spot)
SFE Futures $83.65 ($0.15 SGE Spot)
IBJA PM Spot $76.94 (~$2 LBMA Spot)
LBMA Spot $75.00
COMEX May26 Futures $75.91 (May 20 2pm - EFP spread -$0.15)
MCX Futures $74.23 (~$2.70 IBJA PM Spot)

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened at ~$75.50, dropped down to ~$74.50 and closed back just above ~$75.50. It spiked at night to almost $77 but fell back under $75 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 07:18 : $75.00

May26 = -$0.15 vs +$0.06 Previously (spot @ 14:00 May 20 : $76.06)
Jun26 = +$0.02 vs +$0.08 (spot @ 07:12 : $74.90)
Jul26 = +$0.22 vs +$0.26

EFP Commentary​

May EFP spread has turned negative again. Jun EFP spread near zero. Will withdrawals pick up again?

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $92.18 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(BCD+AIDC)) = $75.17)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $88.58 (less 16.2% BCD+AISD+Cess taxes = $74.23)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $87.32
IBJA PM spot : $85.49 (less 10% BCD duty = $76.94)

MMTP-PAMP (retail proxy) is less than IBJA spot. MCX futures are also less than IBJA spot when adjusting for import duties and taxes.

China ​

SGE $83.80(no VAT)
SFE $83.65

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$8
SFE "premium" to SGE = -$0.15

SFE now at a discount to SGE.



~~~

May 21 Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV (again!)
COMEX23K
SFE162K

COMEX withdrawals are now ~29% of May26 delivery requests
COMEX run rates
SFE run rate
SGE run rate (as of May 15)

COMEX 5-19​

619K ozt (19.3t) in Loomis (600K), MT&B (19K)

642K ozt (20t) from Delaware (1K), Loomis (641K)

101K ozt (3.1t) moved from [E] to [R] in Delaware

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 315.9M ozt (81.7M [R], 234.2M [E])

Net "withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 536K/day DEPOSIT

@ 52% [R], run rate =

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound =

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound =

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg =

COMEX May26​

May26 contract cumulative deliveries = 5,681
May26 contract equivalent ozt = 28,405,000
Actual withdrawals in May ozt = 8,124,585.83

May withdrawals are now ~29% of May26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday's 23K ozt net withdrawal shrunk the 5 DMA deposit rate slightly. Run rates remain indeterminate with a net deposit rate.

Tuesday's 642K actual withdrawal occurred on a day where the May26 contract's EFP spread was firmly positive (when there was no arbitrage profit to be made delivering silver to London).

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell 0.43% to 0.41%

Interactive Brokers reports minimal borrowing activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:shares
JPM:ozt

Second day in a row that SLV reports zero activity. This is not normal.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio 0.34112

PSLV going back to sleep I guess...

SFE Run Rate​

162K ozt (5t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 31,819,210 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 725K/day deposit!

Run rate =

The 5 DMA deposit rate continues to shrink this week. Is the LBMA curtailing silver deliveries to China?

~~~

Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-report-260519.8939/

 

[Voodoo]

Indian Spot prices do appear to be rising, against both London spot and their own futures. Who knows what their futures are seeing but probably the same game as ours.

 

[pmbug]

I'm guessing there has been some dampening of investor enthusiasm/sentiment with the government crackdown on the market (raising import duties/taxes and imposing import restrictions). I'm also guessing black market trade (off book) for smuggled silver will grow.