Jun 2 Silver Market Morning Snapshot
SFE Futures $85.22 SGE Spot $84.75 (~$8
LBMA Spot
)
MCX Futures $76.19 LBMA Spot $75.63
COMEX Jun26 Futures $75.14 ($0.43
LBMA Spot) IBJA PM Spot $73.61 (~$2 LBMA Spot
)LBMA Spot
Yesterday silver opened ~$75.50, crashed below $74, recovered a bit and closed ~$74.70, popped back to $75.50 at night, fell back to $74.50 and then surged to ~$76.50 this morning.
EFP Spreads (ET)
Spot price @ 07:28 : $75.63
Jun26 = -$0.43 vs +$0.02 Previously (spot @ 13:30 Jun 1 : $75.57)
Jul26 = +$1.05 vs +$0.24
Aug26 = +$1.03 vs +$0.57 (spot @ 06:04 : $75.81)
EFP Commentary
Jun26 EFP spread flips to firmly negative as Jul & Aug go firmly positive. Will the firmly negative Jun spread encourage COMEX to LBMA flow?
India
MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $93.86 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(CIF+BCD+AIDC)) = $76.54)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $89.64 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $76.19)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $88.26
IBJA PM spot : $86.60 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $73.61)
China
SGE $84.75
(no VAT)SFE $85.22
SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$8
SFE premium to SGE = $0.47
~~~
Jun 2 Silver Vaults (ozt)
PSLV
3MSLV
1.2MCOMEX
711KSFE
63KCOMEX withdrawals are 0% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX run rates
SFE run rate
156dSGE run rate
(as of May 29)COMEX 5-29
711K ozt (22.1t) in CNT (625K [R]), IDS Delaware (87K) ozt272K ozt (8.4t) moved from [E] to [R] in CNT
177.6 ozt (0.006t) adjusted out of existence in Asahi (166.2 [R]), JPM (11.4)
COMEX Run Rates
Remaining Vault Stock = 317.2M ozt (85M [R], 232.2M [E])
Net "withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 669K/day
DEPOSIT@ 52% [R], run rate =
@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound = (234.3M - 82.2M) / 33K =
@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound = (234.3M / 2) / 33K =
@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg =
COMEX Jun26
Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 1,913
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 9,565,000
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 0
Jun withdrawals are now 0% of Jun26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.
COMEX Commentary
Friday's 711K ozt net deposit grew the 5 DMA deposit rate greatly. There were zero withdrawals on the first day of deliveries for the Jun26 contract.
SLV Share Lending
10M Shares available
Borrow fee remains 0.39%
Interactive Brokers no activity since May 28
SLV Assets
Blackrock:
1.35M sharesJPM:
1.2M ozt (38t)SLV follows up Friday's end of month drain with another big outflow. London vault stock is now down to 402.7M ozt. Based upon recent history, there is ~3M ozt more that can be squeezed from this rock.
PSLV
9.1M units3M ozt (94.3t)ozt/units ratio 0.34123
Whoa! Someone redeemed a lot of silver from PSLV! PSLV redemptions are always posted at the start of the month and this is the largest one I've seen.
In the last year (I started tracking PSLV inventory daily back in June 25), the only other significant redemption was a 1.1M ozt outflow at the beginning of February.
It is very unusual for anyone to raid PSLV inventory as their vault stock is not held in London (it's in Canada). Is the LBMA in more trouble than we suspect?
SFE Run Rate
63K ozt (2t)Remaining Vault Stock = 30,815,910 ozt
Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 198K/day
Run rate = 30.8M / 198K = ~156 (working) days
(~8 months)A small inflow replaces a slightly smaller inflow in the 5 DMA window and the withdraw rate shrinks very slightly.
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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-market-260601.8977/
