Silver Market 260604

[pmbug]

Jun 4 Silver Market Morning Snapshot​

SFE Futures $81.46
SGE Spot $81.20 (~$8 LBMA Spot)
MCX Futures $74.78
COMEX Jun26 Futures $73.11 ($0.03 LBMA Spot @ last quote)
LBMA Spot $74.14
IBJA PM Spot $72.15 (~$2 LBMA Spot)

Quotestaxes/duties

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened ~$74.50, closed just above $73, and has climbed to ~$74.25 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 08:14 : $74.14

Jun26 = +$0.03 vs +$0.08 Previously (spot @ 22:30 Jun 3 : $73.08)
Jul26 = +$0.24 vs +$0.28
Aug26 = +$0.47 vs +$0.56 (spot @ 08:12 : $74.14)

EFP Commentary​

Jun26 EFP spread remains slightly positive. There is no arbitrage profit for sending COMEX silver to London/LBMA.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $91.81 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(CIF+BCD+AIDC)) = $74.87)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $87.98 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $74.78)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $86.52
IBJA PM spot : $84.88 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $72.15)

China ​

SGE $81.20(no VAT)
SFE $81.46

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$8
SFE premium to SGE = $0.26 (from $0.45)


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Jun 4 Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV211K
COMEX600K
SFE272K

COMEX withdrawals remain 0% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA run rates
SFE 5 DMA run rate 323d
SGE 5 WMA run rate (as of May 29)

COMEX 6-2​

600K ozt (18.7t) in HSBC

ozt

52K ozt (1.6t) moved from [R] to [E] in CNT

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 319.3M ozt (84.5M [R], 234.7M [E])

Net "withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 713K/day DEPOSIT (from 833K/day)

@ 52% [R], run rate =

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound =

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound =

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg =

COMEX Jun26​

Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 1,994
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 9,970,000
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 0

Jun withdrawals remain 0% of Jun26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday's 600K ozt net deposit shrunk the 5 DMA deposit rate slightly as a much larger 1.2M ozt deposit rolls out of the 5 DMA window.

Tuesday marks the third consecutive day to start the month with zero ozt withdrawn (against Jun26 contract deliveries). This has never happened previously (back to the beginning of October 2025 anyway). It doesn't necessarily mean anything in particular, but anomalies can be signals that behavior is changing. On thing is for sure, COMEX silver isn't heading to London to support the LBMA right now.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee remains 0.39%

Interactive Brokers reports no activity since May 28. It's very unusual for IB to go this long reporting no activity. Are the bullion banks done borrowing shares for redemption (to raid SLV inventory)?

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:shares
JPM:211K ozt (6.6t)
ozt/shares ratio 0.9047

SLV drains vault stock without a corresponding drop in shares. Very unusual. The ozt/shares ratio falls to a level last seen on October 13, 2025 (during the LBMA free float crisis and corresponding SLV vault stock raid).

London vault stock is now 401.3M ozt. Based upon recent history, there is ~2M ozt more that can be squeezed from this rock.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio 0.34123

PSLV sleeping again.

SFE Run Rate​

272K ozt (8.5t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 31,279,460 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 97K/day (from 188K/day)

Run rate = 31.3M / 97K = ~323 (working) days(~16 months)

A moderate inflow replaces a moderate outflow in the 5 DMA window and the withdraw rate cuts in half.

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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-market-260603.8987/