Silver Market 260610

[pmbug]

Jun 10 Silver Market Morning Snapshot​

SFE Futures $71.77
SGE Spot $71.23 (~$7 LBMA Spot)
MCX Futures $66.31
IBJA Spot $64.76 (~$0.50 LBMA Spot)
LBMA Spot $64.14
COMEX Jun26 Futures $63.75 ($0.03 LBMA Spot @ last quote)

Quotestaxes/duties

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened ~$68.50 and closed ~$65, drifted below $64 over night recovered back above ~$64 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:34 : $64.14

Jun26 = -$0.03 vs =$0.00 Previously (spot @ 23:00 Jun 9 : $63.78)
Jul26 = +$0.15 vs +$0.05
Aug26 = +$0.33 vs +$0.35 (spot @ 06:22 : $64.17)

EFP Commentary​

Jun26 EFP remains close to zero. Jul26 spread recovers a bit. Jun26 EFP spread likely does not offer an arbitrage profit for sending COMEX silver to London/LBMA.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $82.72 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(CIF+BCD+AIDC)) = $67.46)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $78.01 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $66.31)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $76.31
IBJA PM spot : $76.19 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $64.76)

The IBJA spot to LBMA spot discount was >$1 ever since May 13 or so when India imposed higher import duties and outright import restrictions. This morning the IBJA spot has flipped to a premium over LBMA spot!

China ​

SGE $71.23(no VAT)
SFE $71.77

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$7
SFE premium to SGE = $0.54 (from $0.13)


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Jun 10 Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV860K
COMEX550K
SFE421K

COMEX withdrawals are currently ~5.9% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA run rates
SFE 5 DMA run rate 95 (from 160d)
SGE 5 WMA run rate (as of Jun 5)

COMEX 6-8​

602K ozt (18.7t) in Brinks (600K), Delaware (2K)

52K ozt (1.6t) from CNT

ozt moved between [E] and [R]

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 319.4M ozt (84.9M [R], 234.4M [E])

Net "withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 136K/day DEPOSIT (from 322K/day)

@ 52% [R], run rate =

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound =

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound =

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg =

COMEX Jun26​

Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 2,166
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 10,830,000
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 635,512.34

Jun withdrawals are currently ~5.9% of Jun26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Monday's 550K ozt net deposit shrunk the 5 DMA deposit rate as a 1.5M ozt deposit rolls out of the 5 DMA window.

Monday marks the second day in a row with zero silver adjusting between [R] and [E] while withdrawals have been less than 6% of Jun26 delivery requests. Is this a normal market reaction to lower price, or indicative of the COMEX market losing real customers?

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rises remains 0.41%

Interactive Brokers reports no activity for yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:1.05M shares
JPM:860K ozt (26.7t)
ozt/shares ratio 0.9047=

SLV drains 2/3 of yesterday's vault stock gain. London vault stock is now 401.2M ozt.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio 0.34123

PSLV sleeping again.

SFE Run Rate​

421K ozt (13.1t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 29,462,300 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 309K/day (from 187K/day)

Run rate = 29.5M / 309K = ~95 (working) days(~5 months)

A 421K outflow replaces a 191K inflow in the 5 DMA window and the withdrawal rate grows significantly.

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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-market-260609.9010/