Silver Market 260618

[pmbug]

Jun 18 Silver Market Morning Snapshot​

SFE Futures ? (No report from Bai this morning)
SGE Spot ? (No report from Bai this morning)
MCX Futures $68.84
LBMA Spot $68.20
COMEX Jun26 Futures $69.89 ($0.11 LBMA Spot @ last quote)
IBJA Spot $67.27 (~$0.90 LBMA Spot)

Quotestaxes/duties

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened just under $70 and after some FOMC volatility, closed just under $68, climbed back over $69.50 over night and has drifted lower to just under $68 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:46 : $68.20

Jun26 = -$0.11 vs -$0.15 Previously (spot @ 14:40 Jun 17 : $70.00)
Jul26 = $0.00 vs +$0.06
Aug26 = +$0.30 vs +$0.37 (spot @ 05:02 : $68.22)

EFP Commentary​

Jun26 EFP spread holds >$0.10 negative. It should still provide a sufficient arbitrage profit for sending silver to London. Will COMEX withdrawals pick up to take advantage?

The EFP spread for the July contract has collapsed to zero and we're still 2 weeks away from the end of June. This is somewhat unusual.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $85.23 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(CIF+BCD+AIDC)) = $69.51)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $80.99 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $68.84)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $79.52
IBJA PM spot : $79.14 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $67.27)

China ​

No report this morning from Bai.

~~~

Jun 18 Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV1.1M
COMEX127K
SFE540K

COMEX withdrawals are currently ~31.5% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA run rates
SFE 5 DMA run rate 162d (from 65d)
SGE 5 WMA run rate (as of Jun 12)

COMEX 6-16​

605K ozt (18.8t) in HSBC

732K ozt (22.8t) from CNT (32K), Delaware (1K), JPM (599K), MT&B (99K)

moved between [E] and [R]

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 321M ozt (86.3M [R], 234.8M [E])

Net "withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 216K/day DEPOSIT (from 360K/day)

@ 52% [R], run rate =

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound =

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound =

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg =

COMEX Jun26​

Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 2,407
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 12,035,000
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 3,786,406.94

Jun withdrawals are currently ~31.5% of Jun26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Tuesday's 127K ozt net withdrawal shrunk the 5 DMA deposit rate as a 593K ozt net deposit rolls out of the 5 DMA window.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee dropped from 0.44% to 0.43%

Interactive Brokers reports moderate activity yesterday with available shares briefly dropping below 10M. Looks like SLV borrowing has come back to life.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:1.2M shares
JPM:1.1M ozt (33.8t)
ozt/shares ratio 0.904696 (=from 0.904696)

This was the vault drain that I expected to see yesterday. Total London vault stock now at 401.1M ozt.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio 0.34123

PSLV sleeping again.

SFE Run Rate​

540K ozt (16.8t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 27,920,420 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 173K/day (from 416K/day)

Run rate = 27.9M / 173K = ~162 (working) days(~8 months)

A 540K inflow replaces a 679K outflow in the 5 DMA window and the withdrawal rate shrinks greatly. This is the first net inflow in two weeks and it's a big one.

~~~

Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-market-260617.9037/