Silver Market 260623

[pmbug]

Jun 23 Silver Market Morning Snapshot​

SGE Spot $68.90 (~$6.40 LBMA Spot @ 03:30)
SFE Futures $68.80
MCX Futures $64.41
IBJA Spot $63.50 (~$1.30 LBMA Spot @ 07:00)
COMEX Jun26 Futures $65.53 ($0.45 LBMA Spot @ last quote)
LBMA Spot $62.33

Quotestaxes/duties

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened ~$66 and closed ~$65, fell below $62 over night recovered back above $62 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:40 : $62.33

Jun26 = +$0.45 vs -$0.11 Previously (spot @ 17:00 Jun 22 : $65.08)
Jul26 = +$0.09 vs $0.00
Aug26 = +$0.39 vs +$0.30 (spot @ 06:36 : $62.37)

EFP Commentary​

Jun26 EFP spread strongly positive as of the last quote (yesterday afternoon). That will not encourage silver to flow from COMEX to LBMA.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $79.68 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(CIF+BCD+AIDC)) = $64.98)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $75.78 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $64.41)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $74.58
IBJA PM spot : $74.71 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $63.50)

IBJA spot > LBMA spot in spite of onerous import duties!

China ​

SGE $68.90(no VAT)
SFE $68.80

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$6.40
SFE "premium" to SGE = -$0.10


~~~

Jun 23 Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV2.7M
COMEX610K
SFE720K
SGE159K

COMEX withdrawals are currently ~33.9% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA run rates
SFE 5 DMA run rate 242d
SGE 5 WMA run rate (as of Jun 19)

COMEX 6-18​

610K ozt (19t) in Asahi

ozt

33K ozt (1t) moved from [R] to [E] in Brinks

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 321.9M ozt (86.2M [R], 235.7M [E])

Net "withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 514K/day DEPOSIT (from 394K/day)

@ 52% [R], run rate =

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound =

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound =

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg =

COMEX Jun26​

Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 2,423
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 12,115,000
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 4,106,517.46

Jun withdrawals are currently ~33.9% of Jun26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Thursday's 610K ozt net deposit grew the 5 DMA deposit rate as a 14K ozt net deposit rolls out of the 5 DMA window.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rose from 0.43% to 0.45%

Interactive Brokers reports moderate activity since Friday with available shares recovering from below 8M. Looks like SLV borrowing has come back to life.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:3M shares
JPM:2.7M ozt (84.4t)
ozt/shares ratio 0.904695 (from 0.904696)

This was a huge inflow and I was not expecing that. Total London vault stock now at 403.8M ozt.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio 0.34123

PSLV sleeping again.

SFE Run Rate​

720K ozt (22.4t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 27,455,320 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 114K/day

Run rate = 27.5M / 114K = ~242 (working) days (~12 months)

A 720K outflow replaces a 465K outflow in the 5 DMA window and the withdrawal rate grows slightly. This outflow almost reverses the last two market days of inflows.

SGE Run Rate​

159K ozt (4.9t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 31,082,700 ozt

"Withdraw" rate through last 5 weeks = 1.4M/week DEPOSIT (from 2.1M/week DEPOSIT)

Run rate =

This was the first weekly drain for SGE since the end of March!

~~~

Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-market-260619.9043/