Silver Market 260624

[pmbug]

Jun 24 Silver Market Morning Snapshot​

SFE Futures $68.38
SGE Spot $68.18 (~$6.40 LBMA Spot @ 03:30)
MCX Futures $63.13
IBJA Spot $62.06 (~$1.39 LBMA Spot @ 07:00)
LBMA Spot $60.67
COMEX Jun26 Futures $61.98 ($0.30 LBMA Spot @ last quote)

Quotestaxes/duties

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened above $62 and closed just above $61, chopped lower over night and is ~$60.40 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 07:00 : $60.67

Jun26 = -$0.30 vs +$0.45 Previously (spot @ 10:50 Jun 23 : $62.28)
Jul26 = -$0.03 vs +$0.09
Aug26 = +$0.30 vs +$0.39 (spot @ 06:54 : $60.58)

EFP Commentary​

Jun26 EFP spread flips back negative as of the last quote (yesterday morning). Seems that the June contract has low trade volume.

The July contract has also flipped slightly negative.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $78.31 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(CIF+BCD+AIDC)) = $63.86)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $74.27 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $63.13)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $72.86
IBJA PM spot : $73.01 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $62.06)

IBJA spot > LBMA spot in spite of onerous import duties!

China ​

SGE $68.18(no VAT)
SFE $68.38

SGE premium to LBMA spot = ~$6.40
SFE premium to SGE = $0.20


~~~

Jun 24 Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV2.6M
COMEX897K
SFE53K

COMEX withdrawals are currently ~33.9% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA run rates
SFE 5 DMA run rate 266d
SGE 5 WMA run rate (as of Jun 19)

COMEX 6-22​

897K ozt (27.9t) in Asahi (297K), CNT (599K)

ozt

moved between [R] and [E]

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 322.8M ozt (86.2M [R], 236.6M [E])

Net "withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 573K/day DEPOSIT (from 514K/day)

@ 52% [R], run rate =

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound =

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound =

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg =

COMEX Jun26​

Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 2,424
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 12,120,000
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 4,106,517.46

Jun withdrawals are currently ~33.9% of Jun26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Monday's 897K ozt net deposit grew the 5 DMA deposit rate slightly as a 599K ozt net deposit rolls out of the 5 DMA window.

Monday marks two consecutive daily reports with zero withdrawals.

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee fell from 0.45% to 0.38%

Interactive Brokers reports minimal activity yesterday.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:2.9M shares
JPM:2.6M ozt (81.6t)
ozt/shares ratio 0.904698 (from 0.904695)

Monday's inflow gets wiped out yesterday.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio 0.34123

PSLV sleeping again.

SFE Run Rate​

53K ozt (1.7t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 27,401,860 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 103K/day (from 114K)

Run rate = 27.4M / 103K = ~266 (working) days (~13.3 months) (from 242)

A 53K outflow replaces a 105K outflow in the 5 DMA window and the withdrawal rate shrinks slightly.

~~~

Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-market-260623.9047/

 

[Voodoo]

It really looks to me like the Comex is out of Silver. They just don't have any left and what little they are sending out is coming in from the Metalor and Ashii refineries. The EFP's are huge everyday now for the July contracts...