Silver Market 260626

[pmbug]

Jun 26 Silver Market Morning Snapshot​

SFE Futures $65.01
SGE Spot $64.57 ($6.55 LBMA Spot @ 03:30)
MCX Futures $63.09
IBJA Spot (Holiday)
COMEX Jul26 Futures $58.31 ($1.05 LBMA Spot)
LBMA Spot $57.26

Quotestaxes/duties

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday silver opened ~$57, closed $57.75, dipped below $56 over night and has risen back above $58 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:50 : $57.26

Jul26 = +$1.05 vs +$0.08 Previously
Aug26 = +$1.03 vs +$0.30 (spot @ 06:22 : $57.35)
Sep26 = +$1.51

EFP Commentary​

Jun26 off the board. Jul26 EFP spread surges firmly positive.

India ​

MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $79.53 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(CIF+BCD+AIDC)) = $67.15)
MCX Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $72.56 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $63.09)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $72.40
IBJA PM spot : (Holiday)

China ​

SGE $64.57(no VAT)
SFE $65.01

SGE premium to LBMA spot = $6.55 (@ 03:30 ET)
SFE premium to SGE = $0.44


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Jun 26 Silver Vaults (ozt)​

PSLV
SLV2.4M
COMEX603K
SFE183K

COMEX withdrawals are currently ~31.9% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA run rates
SFE 5 DMA run rate 166d
SGE 5 WMA run rate (as of Jun 19)

COMEX 6-24​

603K ozt (18.7t) in Asahi

ozt

928K ozt (28.9t) moved from [E] to [R] in Loomis

1.2M ozt (38.8t) moved from [R] to [E] in Asahi (649K), Brinks (201K), MT&B (66K), StoneX (331K)

COMEX Run Rates​

Remaining Vault Stock = 323.4M ozt (87.1M [R], 236.3M [E])

Net "withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 472K/day DEPOSIT (from 326K/day)

@ 52% [R], run rate =

@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound =

@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound =

@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg =

COMEX Jun26​

Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 2,592
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 12,960,000
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 4,136,552.14

Jun withdrawals are currently ~31.9% of Jun26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.

COMEX Commentary​

Wednesday's 603K ozt net deposit grew the 5 DMA deposit rate as a 127K ozt net withdrawal rolls out of the 5 DMA window.

Wednesday returns to the ~600K in and zero out pattern of the last few days (aside from Tuesday).

Yesterday there were 118 contract delivery requests posted. It's a big number for a relatively quiet month so far. We're approaching the end of the June contract. Will voltility increase?

SLV Share Lending​

10M Shares available

Borrow fee rises from 0.38% to 0.40%

Interactive Brokers reports moderate activity yesterday and this morning.

SLV Assets​

Blackrock:2.6M shares
JPM:2.4M ozt (73.1t)
ozt/shares ratio 0.904695 (from 0.904696)

SLV vault stock making large swings the last few days with ~2.5M ozt in, out, in Mon, Tue & Thu. London vault stock now at 402.8M ozt.

PSLV​

units
ozt
ozt/units ratio 0.34123

PSLV sleeping again.

SFE Run Rate​

183K ozt (5.7t)
Remaining Vault Stock = 27,102,600 ozt

Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 164K/day (from 19K)

Run rate = 27.1M / 164K = ~166 (working) days (~8.3 months) (from 1,437)

A 183K net outflow replaces a 540K net inflow in the 5 DMA window and the withdrawal rate grows greatly (as I had expected).

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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-market-260625.9056/