Jun 30 Silver Market Morning Snapshot
SFE Futures $66.01 SGE Spot $65.70 ($6.80
LBMA Spot @ 03:30)
MCX Futures $65.81 IBJA Spot $64.42 (~$5.48 LBMA Spot) LBMA Spot $58.94
COMEX Jul26 Futures $58.85 ($0.04
LBMA Spot @ last quote)Quotes
taxes/dutiesLBMA Spot
Yesterday silver opened and closed just above $58, dropped below $57 over night and popped back up above $59 before settling just under $59 this morning.
EFP Spreads (ET)
Spot price @ 06:44 : $58.94
Jul26 = -0.04 vs -$0.04 Previously (spot @ 06:24 : $58.89)
Aug26 = +$0.17 vs +$0.21 (spot @ 06:38 : $58.92)
Sep26 = +$0.46 vs +$0.40
EFP Commentary
Jul26 EFP spread holds steady. The discount to LBMA spot is likely not sufficient to realize an arbitrage profit for shipping silver to London (to sell at the LBMA).
India
MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $79.56 (less 18.45% taxes (IGST*(CIF+BCD+AIDC)) = $67.16)
MCX Aug26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $75.68 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $65.81)
MCX Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $73.57
IBJA PM spot : $74.09 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $64.42)
China
SGE $65.70
(no VAT)SFE $66.01
SGE premium to LBMA spot = $6.80 (@ 03:30 ET)
SFE premium to SGE = $0.31
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Jun 30 Silver Vaults (ozt)
PSLV
SLV
1.4M
COMEX
1.2MSFE
57KSGE
1.2MCOMEX withdrawals remain ~41% of Jun26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA run rates
(5 DMA net deposit rate shrunk massively)SFE 5 DMA run rate 135d (
from 81)SGE 5 WMA run rate
(as of Jun 26)COMEX 6-26
25K ozt (0.8t) in StoneX [R]1.2M ozt (36.8t) from JPM (581K), Loomis (601K)4.6M ozt (142.1t) moved from [E] to [R] in Asahi
COMEX Run Rates
Remaining Vault Stock = 322.2M ozt (91.7M [R], 230.5M [E])
Net "withdraw" rate through last 5 days = 62K/day DEPOSIT (
from 416K/day)@ 52% [R], run rate =
@ 100% [E], run rate upper bound =
@ 100% [E], run rate lower bound =
@ 100% [E] run rate mid point/avg =
COMEX Jun26
Jun26 contract cumulative deliveries = 2,594
Jun26 contract equivalent ozt = 12,970,000
Actual withdrawals in Jun ozt = 5,321,508.67
Jun withdrawals are currently ~41% of Jun26 delivery requests. See here for historical context.
COMEX Commentary
Friday's 1.2M ozt net withdrawal shrunk the 5 DMA deposit rate massively as it replaces a 610K ozt net deposit in the 5 DMA window.
Asahi moves a huge 4.6M ozt from [E]ligible to [R]egistered presumably in anticipation of being delivered against July contracts.
SLV Share Lending
10M Shares available
Borrow fee rises from 0.47% to 0.59%
Interactive Brokers reports heavy activity yesterday and the borrowing fee has risen to the highest it's been in months.
SLV Assets
Blackrock:
1.6M sharesJPM:
1.4M ozt (45t)ozt/shares ratio 0.904697 (=from 0.904697)
Another large drawdown in SLV vault stock yesterday. London vault stock now at ~400M ozt. Will it go much lower?
PSLV
unitsoztozt/units ratio 0.34123
PSLV sleeping again.
SFE Run Rate
57K ozt (1.8t)Remaining Vault Stock = 26,470,220 ozt
Withdraw rate through last 5 days = 197K/day (
from 330K)Run rate = 26.5M / 197K = ~135 (working) days (~7 months) (
from 81)A huge 576K net outflow replaces a 255K net inflow in the 5 DMA window and the withdrawal rate doubles (as I had expected).
SGE Run Rate
1.2M ozt (36.5t)Remaining Vault Stock = 32,256,040 ozt
"Withdraw" rate through last 5 weeks = 1.1M/week DEPOSIT (
from 1.4M/week DEPOSIT)Run rate =
Following declining weekly inflows that culminated in a weekly ouflow the week previous, last week reports a moderate 1.2M ozt net inflow that replaces a 2.9M ozt net inflow in the 5 WMA window and the deposit rate still shrinks a bit.
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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-market-260628.9068/
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